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February 2022


cleetussnow
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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95.

WX/PT

Are you the same PT from the January 1996 blizzard? If so, a pleasure to see you post on this board. That was the first true storm of Internet era.

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Tomorrow will be another fair but cold day. Afterward, temperatures will turn milder before more cold air arrives near or during the following weekend. There is a small possibility of some light snow or flurries on Monday. Some areas could see rain showers, especially those south of New York City.

Beyond next week, there is a slowly growing consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings after mid-month. Such a change could be preceded by a storm. There remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of such a possible pattern change. However, the warmer pattern will likely be in place for the closing week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.385.

On February 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.708 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM).

 

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7 hours ago, Jt17 said:

9 days away? Lol have some patience dude! 

9 days puts us into the middle of February ( literally ) and once we get into March with sun angle and warm days following possible storms I am being realistic on 2 fronts and the first one is the snow lover in me wants something to track sooner than a week and change away especially when 9 days on the models could easily turn into a non event by the time it gets here

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2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

9 days puts us into the middle of February ( literally ) and once we get into March with sun angle and warm days following possible storms I am being realistic on 2 fronts and the first one is the snow lover in me wants something to track sooner than a week and change away especially when 9 days on the models could easily turn into a non event by the time it gets here

I know that in March sun angle becomes a factor, but it's no factor at all in any part of February.  The city itself has seen a 20 inch snowstorm as late as the last few days of the month pretty recently (2010) and we had a 26-28 inch snowstorm here in SW Long Island with PD2 in 2003.

 

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The next 8 days break the string and are going AN apparently:  37(30/44) or +3.

Reached 29 here yesterday PM and back at midnight too.

Today: 30-32, wind e.,s. to e., m.clear but  cloudier late, little T change overnight, 30 by AM tomorrow.

Small snow chance, say 13th.-17th.

20*(53%RH) here at 6am.      24* at 9am.      28* at Noon.    Reached 37* at 4:30pm.      32* at 6pm.      up to 34* at 10pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny but still cold. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 31°

Newark: 30°

Philadelphia: 37°

Temperatures will moderate starting tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 41.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.4°; 15-Year: 42.4°

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45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Solar spring starts Tuesday (2/8) and ends (5/8), it’s the time of the most rapid gain of sunlight of the year. Solar summer starts on 5/8

Good morning S19. This forum keeps chipping away at my mental block. I spent most of my life knowing solstice seasons, even though I often got the dates wrong. Then I was introduced to meteorological seasons, easier to remember at least. Thank you S19 for the intro to solar seasons. I never knew they existed. I looked into it and found Hindu reckoning in South Asia has six seasons. ( one for the monsoon ). At my chronological place this kind of exercise is beneficial. As always

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10 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning S19. This forum keeps chipping away at my mental block. I spent most of my life knowing solstice seasons, even though I often got the dates wrong. Then I was introduced to meteorological seasons, easier to remember at least. Thank you S19 for the intro solar seasons. I never knew they existed. I looked into it and found Hindu reckoning in South Asia has six seasons. ( one for the monsoon ). At my chronological place this kind of exercise is beneficial. As always

Sure. Solar spring starts 2/8, meteorological spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts 3/20 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This winter so far has been very meh. Not the worst but not good either. We'll see if things change.

I'm more excited about the severe weather season. That has really ramped up lately and should continue to do so this year. 

Yeah I gave it a mid season grade of C.

Still almost half of winter left can go either way BUT it may come down to getting that SSWE or not.

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40 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning S19. This forum keeps chipping away at my mental block. I spent most of my life knowing solstice seasons, even though I often got the dates wrong. Then I was introduced to meteorological seasons, easier to remember at least. Thank you S19 for the intro to solar seasons. I never knew they existed. I looked into it and found Hindu reckoning in South Asia has six seasons. ( one for the monsoon ). At my chronological place this kind of exercise is beneficial. As always

In many mountain resort regions there are also six and sometimes even seven seasons. You add in mud season, black fly season and stick season (the period between when there are leaves on the trees and snow on the ground. 

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23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I know someone saw that the other -PNA Decembers which were close in amplitude to this one that Jan/Feb both averaged below normal after in the Eastern US so perhaps some type of forced change to the pattern as a result of a persistent -PNA like that 

This was the first time that we ever had a +PNA January with a PDO value lower than -2.00.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Jan 2022

PDO….-2.42

PNA…..+1.01

Jan 2000

PDO…-2.20

PNA….-0.82

Jan 1972

PDO…-2.12

PNA…-1.41

Jan 1956

PDO….-2.26

PNA….-1.32

Jan 1952

PDO…-2.19

PNA…-1.98

 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this interesting. Looks like MJO phase 4 is cold in the east in March.

Unless March April May is the wrong period to pull rather than Feb March April.

 

combined_image (1).png

There are specific parameters you have to look at other than simply “MJO phase 4 March”….MJO phase 4 La Niña March -GLAAM? Or MJO Phase 4 La Niña March +GLAAM? All that is very important and makes a big difference in the MJO composites 

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