eduggs Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Long ways to go for winter One month ago that was true. Not anymore. Days are noticeably longer. Spring is near. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, eduggs said: I'm a little surprised that EWR has rarely gotten more snow than ISP over that stretch, and never by much. I guess it's not far enough NW. Overall the stations are pretty similar most years. Yeah, ISP has averaged around 40” since 2010. Newark is running closer to 35”. It’s been the best era for snowstorms tracking near the benchmark which favors Long Island. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.7 5.4 15.4 11.8 6.8 0.4 40.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 0.2 M M 32.3 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.4 1.1 5.9 11.2 11.1 5.1 0.5 34.9 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 0.1 M M 14.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 0.9 4.8 9.9 0.0 22.0 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 10.1 3.4 13.2 5.0 39.4 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.4 9.3 7.9 9.4 0.0 30.0 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.3 25.7 5.2 1.6 T 32.8 2014-2015 T 1.4 0.3 14.9 13.5 16.3 T 46.4 2013-2014 0.0 T 9.4 20.8 30.3 0.2 0.4 61.1 2012-2013 0.0 6.6 1.9 1.4 10.8 8.8 0.0 29.5 2011-2012 5.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 2010-2011 0.0 T 24.5 37.4 4.1 2.2 T 68.2 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 13.3 1.7 32.9 T 0.0 47.9 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: Yeah I saw that. H5 looks potentially promising even though ensembles are unexciting. The 12z CMC has it too. Too bad it's so far out. I'm actually hoping it slows down a day cause I have a flight out to FL that day :-), but the GFS has had it off and on for a few days now and it's stuck with 2/14. So I guess we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, eduggs said: One month ago that was true. Not anymore. Days are noticeably longer. Spring is near. I'm not too thrilled about the future pattern. The lack of blocking hurts. We got away with it in 13/14 & 14/15 because the PNA/EPO were extremely favorable. This season is one big mashup that barely works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Long ways to go for winter You said long way to go for winter. I declare you a weenie because I can. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Euro looks interesting for vday 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro looks interesting for vday The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo Let's see You don't like another storm 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Let's see You don't like another storm Every time he predicts warm he ends up looking like this guy 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro looks interesting for vday I like that period for some sort of storm. Mentioned it the other day. Pv lobe pulled away, PNA spike. Keep an eye on that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I like that period for some sort of storm. Mentioned it the other day. Pv lobe pulled away, PNA spike. Keep an eye on that. Negative AO is rising also 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, ISP has averaged around 40” since 2010. Newark is running closer to 35”. It’s been the best era for snowstorms tracking near the benchmark which favors Long Island. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.7 5.4 15.4 11.8 6.8 0.4 40.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 0.2 M M 32.3 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.4 1.1 5.9 11.2 11.1 5.1 0.5 34.9 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 0.1 M M 14.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 0.9 4.8 9.9 0.0 22.0 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 10.1 3.4 13.2 5.0 39.4 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.4 9.3 7.9 9.4 0.0 30.0 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.3 25.7 5.2 1.6 T 32.8 2014-2015 T 1.4 0.3 14.9 13.5 16.3 T 46.4 2013-2014 0.0 T 9.4 20.8 30.3 0.2 0.4 61.1 2012-2013 0.0 6.6 1.9 1.4 10.8 8.8 0.0 29.5 2011-2012 5.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 2010-2011 0.0 T 24.5 37.4 4.1 2.2 T 68.2 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 13.3 1.7 32.9 T 0.0 47.9 For us too, glad to be done with those inland winters for now anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro monthly is going for a February mean trough position in the Plains. So a warmer monthly departure than January but colder than December. Looks like around a +1 to +2 pattern here if the forecast works out. thats pretty good for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro monthly is going for a February mean trough position in the Plains. So a warmer monthly departure than January but colder than December. Looks like around a +1 to +2 pattern here if the forecast works out. Yeah that works late Feb, and most importantly we do not have a deep negative NAO like December to cause compression with the SE ridge. Perfect trailing wave pattern. Amped cuts weak snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah that works late Feb, and most importantly we do not have a deep negative NAO like December to cause compression with the SE ridge. Perfect trailing wave pattern. Amped cuts weak snow. it's not even late February, it's mid February, the ideal time for snow for us. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro looks interesting for vday MJ I sure as hell hope we get something to watch/ track and actual hit us long before this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95. WX/PT 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95. WX/PT Lots of stuff has looked good 8-9 days out. We gotta reel it in - bring it inside 5 days to take it seriously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Lots of stuff has looked good 8-9 days out. We gotta reel it in - bring it inside 5 days to take it seriously. Hey this last storm was pretty good we just need to not look for 20+ in every storm. 6 inches is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95. WX/PT Whats the biggest danger with it-- coastal hugger or too far offshore? Or not being cold enough regardless? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: MJ I sure as hell hope we get something to watch/ track and actual hit us long before this 9 days away? Lol have some patience dude! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: 9 days away? Lol have some patience dude! Meanwhile whats going on Monday into Tuesday? I see our locals show us with snow mixed with rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey this last storm was pretty good we just need to not look for 20+ in every storm. 6 inches is fine. I'll take a 6 inch snowstorm in a heartbeat. It's been more than 1 full year since my last one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: For us too, glad to be done with those inland winters for now anyway We didn’t have the big gap between snowstorms this year that we had last year. Our January snowstorms were only 3 weeks apart. Last year we had a big intermission between the mid-December and early February events. So another period to watch for snow in mid-February would only be a little over 2 weeks later than our last snow on the 29th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We didn’t have the big gap between snowstorms this year that we had last year. Our January snowstorms were only 3 weeks apart. Last year we had a big intermission between the mid-December and early February events. So another period to watch for snow in mid-February would only be a little over 2 weeks later than our last snow on the 29th, seems like people are excited about that time period-- whats the biggest risk: hugger, offshore or just not cold enough either way? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 You get a weenie you get a weenie everyone gets a weenie from snowman 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 @snowman19 should start charging rent. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: @snowman19 should start charging rent. Nah, he’d tell everyone the rent was $2-$4 and then the bill would say $12 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Nah, he’d tell everyone the rent was $2-$4 and then the bill would say $12 That’s how he would buy his car 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: seems like people are excited about that time period-- whats the biggest risk: hugger, offshore or just not cold enough either way? Hard to know any details for the day 8-10 period. But the EPS and GEPS have an impressive +300 to +400 meter 500 mb height anomaly just off the West Coast. So a general storm signal exists in mid-February. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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