weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I Thought the HRRR did well last storm. Nailed the gradient in nj with jersey shore jackpot it was remarkably close and had my area right on the 6-8 line most of the time, we wound up with a narrow swath of 7-8, just across the Kill in SI they had 9. We almost never overperform here. With snow disappearing so fast these days, I wonder why bother to clean it that well? And I didn't. I do the driveway and walks to make em usable, but don't fuss over it. Most times, it's all gone in a week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: it was remarkably close and had my area right on the 6-8 line most of the time, we wound up with a narrow swath of 7-8, just across the Kill in SI they had 9. We almost never overperform here. With snow disappearing so fast these days, I wonder why bother to clean it that well? And I didn't. I do the driveway and walks to make em usable, but don't fuss over it. Most times, it's all gone in a week. Yeah, 7.5 here in Metuchen which is down to piles now. It’s been a poor winter for snow cover given how cold it’s been the past few weeks. Last February imo was a great month in our area. Snow cover and numerous events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, 7.5 here in Metuchen which is down to piles now. It’s been a poor winter for snow cover given how cold it’s been the past few weeks. Last February imo was a great month in our area. Snow cover and numerous events Last February was an outlier for us on extended snow cover. This winter so far is like other recent years with quick warm ups and snowmelt. While we had an increase in snowfall since 1981, the snow cover days haven’t kept up. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Last February was an outlier for us on extended snow cover. This winter so far is like other recent years with quick warm ups and snowmelt. While we had an increase in snowfall since 1981, the snow cover days haven’t kept up. Typical Niña winter where the snow doesn’t stick around long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Last February was an outlier for us on extended snow cover. This winter so far is like other recent years with quick warm ups and snowmelt. While we had an increase in snowfall since 1981, the snow cover days haven’t kept up. Thanks for this. Amazing the difference a small distance makes. I have had at least 75% snow coverage since our first snowfall in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Gotta work and expecting/hoping for a healthy grandchild #2 at Noon. CONGRATS, Walt! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, 7.5 here in Metuchen which is down to piles now. It’s been a poor winter for snow cover given how cold it’s been the past few weeks. Last February imo was a great month in our area. Snow cover and numerous events We really got unlucky with that big storm earlier in January where Atlantic City got 13 inches while we got nothing. It would have been a great snow month for us had that storm hit us. Instead it was just a pretty good snow month with 2 moderate snowstorms hitting our area. I know a different story for the Jersey shore and Long Island, since they got huge amounts from that last storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Quick post: NCEP EMC knows about the GFS problems handling sleet and snow mixes as all snow at 10 to 1. They also know that this biases GFS snow depth and make the boundary layer too cold (also this mornings busted temps on the se edge of the freezing rain). May also be affecting the FV3 shorter range model seen in TT. All this in an 11AM WPC-EMC meeting yesterday. When it gets fixed? Do not know. They did not have enough ice event samples in 2019-20 to witness this as problem for the recently implemented GFS upgrade. Next: I like the pattern for Feb and if the SSW is real, could be a fun and interesting end to winter. All I know is that I won't end up with the 14.4" of snow so far this winter and could see a doubling or tripling by April 15 (especially if SSW) to get me to 40"? I suppose that's a long shot but Feb pattern and possible SSW offer a little hope. My concern is that the EPS weeklies do not seem to be doing well after 2 weeks, and I do not see a huge warmup in the east until we consistently lose the ridge in AK. Take a look at Feb 7-8: Some have given up, just as it's starting to look better. Could be NC to BOS near I95 period of snow or maybe a bit more than that? The 500MB pattern imo favors more events along the east coast with the cold trough straddling 80-85W for much of the month. As long as we keep getting 1045-55MB highs moving se out of W Canada, there is hope. Do NOT want to replace that consistently with low pressure. Will post ice accums when its over in the thread. Gotta work and expecting/hoping for a healthy grandchild #2 at Noon. Congratulations on the coming grandchild. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Mentioned in another post before, however the fact that the air mass is much cooler than 2018 may lead to quicker results. I remember the first storm was a bit too warm for snow as we were heading out of the February furnace. This year's constant -EPO may lead to a quicker snowier outcome if this does indeed occur. We got lucky that the impressive SPV never really coupled with the lower atmosphere. Plus we had the strong +PNA and -EPO to compensate. So even if there is a reversal like weeklies have, it’s uncertain how much would propagate down to the troposphere. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK: 78 days (12/22/1962-3/9/1963 and 12/29/1968-3/16/1969) LGA: 78 days (12/29/1968-3/16/1969) NYC: 90 days (11/13/1880-2/10/1881) wow helps that JFK and LGA have shorter periods of records, because NYC's record is from a different era. so this is amazing in 62-63 and 68-69 we basically went the entire winter without ever hitting 50? How is it we didn't get more snow in either of those years? and did NYC also go the entire winter without hitting 50 in those years, Don? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Typical Niña winter where the snow doesn’t stick around long ninas after ninos are our best winters, second year ninas not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 6 hours ago, bluewave said: 90 days is the record in NYC. But we recently made it above 50 days in 2015. Before that it was 1977. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 90 1881-02-10 2 77 1969-03-15 3 74 1910-02-26 - 74 1877-01-31 4 69 1905-03-17 5 68 1885-03-26 6 65 1977-02-10 7 63 2015-03-08 8 62 1941-03-02 9 59 1948-02-13 - 59 1883-02-03 10 54 1971-02-11 11 53 1889-03-11 - 53 1884-02-05 12 52 1916-03-24 - 52 1895-02-28 13 51 1907-03-12 - 51 1873-01-15 14 50 1981-02-01 - 50 1927-01-18 I see that 68-69 was 50less across the board in the city....but I'm confused about 62-63, how is it tied at JFK but not even in the top 15 at NYC? and wow 2015 is the only recent year in the top 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 11 hours ago, justinj said: Where in the poconos? Parents had a place in lake Ariel. Nice up there Southern Poconos near Lake Harmony. Really nice area, about 2200 ft up. Halfway between Allentown and Mt Pocono. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Eduardo said: Those are some incredible stats! Add it to our repertiore of extremes. Thanks for sharing. Yeah, extremes have become the new normal around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The whole FV3 upgrade process seems to be very bumpy. The GFS initially had the January 3rd heavy snow event in ACY further north up into our area. Then we saw it too far to the east with the blizzard last weekend. It seems that some forecast outlets held off on the snow forecast until they saw the GFS coming back NW. So this adds an unnecessary layer of confusion to the forecast process. It also raises the question of what will happen once the NAM is discontinued. Its already been 5 years since the last NAM upgrade and it’s showing with other models like the improving RGEM jumping around less than the NAM from run to run. It would be even more confusing if a FV3 NAM replacement introduces a whole new set of biases that complicate the forecast process. We are getting to the point where it seems better to rely more on the GEM, RGEM, and Euro. Sometimes the HREF and HRRR does well. But even they have their issues at times. Your writing has my full support and agreement. I hope others are noticing. What i do like about the GFS>GEFS is early hints, via 500MB, sometimes surface. NO QUESTION it has a cold bias in the boundary layer and does not model warm nose. No one probably noticed this but the Kittatiny ridge in nw NJ held back the ne inflow of subfreezing air in Sandyston-Montague so that at Noon it was 35 in Sandyston on CR 560, 32 at the Kittatinny ridge just west of Culvers Lake and 30 here in Wantage as I did my County work. Hand it to the high res mesoscale models including RGEM/HRDPS/NAM for seeing this well in advance!!! Your point about there FV3 has been shared by Jack Sullen and I agree. I am hoping the NAM (which is good up to 66-72 hour lead time for events), is extended beyond 2023. have no clue nor any whiff of influence. I for now, am not at all interested in FV3, ICON as winter time consistently accurate modeling. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow helps that JFK and LGA have shorter periods of records, because NYC's record is from a different era. so this is amazing in 62-63 and 68-69 we basically went the entire winter without ever hitting 50? How is it we didn't get more snow in either of those years? and did NYC also go the entire winter without hitting 50 in those years, Don? Winter 1962-63 was quite dry. For example, NYC picked up just 6.74" of precipitation during December-February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I see that 68-69 was 50less across the board in the city....but I'm confused about 62-63, how is it tied at JFK but not even in the top 15 at NYC? and wow 2015 is the only recent year in the top 15 thats what a all winter neg ao nao will do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: thats what a all winter neg ao nao will do... but still not a lot of snow in either of those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, extremes have become the new normal around here. why did this front take so long to come through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Newark NJ snow depth days...best February's... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2021......17...17...17...14...11....9...13..12...11...11...13..12..11..10....8...5...3...5....5....5....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0 2017......T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....8....6....5....3....2....2....1...0...0...0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...….. 2015......5....8....8....8....7....7....7.....6....6....6....6....6.....5....5....6...5...8...7....6....5....9....8....5....5....5....4....4....4...…... 2014......T....T....8....7...10...9....8....8....9....9....9....8....17...18..17..16..16..16..15..13...10...9....4....1....T....T.....t.....0...…... 2011.....15..15..14..13..13..11...9....6....5....4....3....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....1....t.....0....0....0....0...…... 2010......0....1....2....0....t.....T....0....0....T...13..11...8....8....7....6....8....7....7....6....2....0....t.....t.....0....7...12...9....6...…... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2006......0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....3...20..14..10...9....4....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T...…... 2005......7....6....5....5....4....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....2....5....3....1....4....6....6....1....6...….. 2003......0....0....0....0....t.....t.....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....3....2....5...22..23..19..15..13..10...5....2....2....1....1....1...…... 1996......T....1....7....7....6....5....4....4....1....0....0....t.....0....2....t.....0....9....9....5....3....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0... 1995......0....0....0....9....5....5....5....4....4....4....2....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....1....T....0...……... 1994......T....T....T....T....T.....T....T....9...10...9...18..18..17..15..15..13..10..10...9....6....1....T....2....1....1....2....1....T...……. 1993......0....t.....0....t.....0....3....3....3....0....0....0....3....1....1....0....1....0....0....0....0....4....4....2....1....0....0....T....T...……. 1987......5....4....3....2....1....T....0....0....T....T.....T....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....4....1....T....0....0....0...….. 1986......T....0....0....2....1....0....6....7....5....4....8....7....5....5....5....4....4....2....T.....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0...…... 1985......1....3....3....3....6....6....6....6....6....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... 1983......0....0....0....t.....0....3....5....5....4....4...17..19..17..11...9....8....6....3....1....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1979......0....0....0....0....0....0....6....6....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....3...19..19..15...7....3....1....T....T....T....T...………. 1978......T....T....T....T....T....18..19..17..15..13..12..11...9....8....8....6....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....4....2....1....1...…....... 1975......t.....0....0....T....3....2....t.....0....T....T....t.....9....8....6....5....3....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0......... 1974......0....T....T....1....1....1....1....5....5....4....3....2....T....T....0....0....T.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....2....1....T....0........ 1972......T....T....T....0....0....3....3....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....0.....1....T....3....2....2....1....4....4....2....1....T....T....0.... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1969......T....0....t.....T....T.....0....0....t....13..14..13..11...9....8....8....7....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....2....1....1....1........... 1967......T....t.....0....t.....0....4...15..14..12..13..12...9....7....6....4....T....T....2....T....T.....1....0....3....1....1....T....T....1........ 1966......7....9....8....6....5....4....3....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....T....... 1964......T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....3....2....2....T....T.....1....1....T....T....6....5....3....2....1....T....T.....T....T....3....3.... 1963......5....5....3....3....2....2....T....T....T....T.....T....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0....3....2....T....T.....0....T....T....T....T.....t...… 1962......t.....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....4....3....2....2....1....4....2....1....1....0....T....T....1....1.....T....t.....t.....t.....0....0...…... 1961......7....7...14..26..25..21..16..12..11...9....8....7....7....5....4....4....3....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t...……. year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1958......1....T....t.....T....0....0....1....1....T.....0....0....t.....0....0....4...13..13...9....8....6....6....5....3....2....1....T....T....0...... 1948......7....5....6...11..11..11..10..10..10...9....9....8....7....5....4....3....1....T....T....T.....0....3....2....1....T....0....0....t.....0 1947......0....t.....0....1....1....1....T....7....6....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....8...11..10...9....8....6....5....3....3..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why did this front take so long to come through? The leading edge of the cold air was very shallow so the higher terrain outside the immediate Hudson Valley slowed the advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The leading edge of the cold air was very shallow so the higher terrain outside the immediate Hudson Valley slowed the advance. it was basically like two different seasons in adjacent boroughs lol, if it was snowing where it was in the 30s you could have a foot of snow in one borough and an inch of rain in another 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it was basically like two different seasons in adjacent boroughs lol, if it was snowing where it was in the 30s you could have a foot of snow in one borough and an inch of rain in another Well put, Liberty. If he were still with us I wouldn’t be surprised to see a comment/observation from Rod Serling. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 minute ago, rclab said: Well put, Liberty. If he were still with us I wouldn’t be surprised to see a comment/observation from Rod Serling. As always …. Could you imagine one part of your postage stamp getting rain and the other part getting snow rclab?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: Could you imagine one part of your postage stamp getting rain and the other part getting snow rclab?! Dammit Liberty, now you’ve got me looking out the window.. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 minute ago, rclab said: Dammit Liberty, now you’ve got me looking out the window.. As always …. I always imagined this rare scenario where it is snowing outside my bedroom window but when I go downstairs it is raining. Or that tree tops are covered in snow but it changes to rain just before reaching ground level. I wonder if this is possible? I have heard of one house experiencing a thundershower and the next town over not getting a single drop....the rain has to stop somewhere right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 A cold but generally dry weekend lies ahead. Next week will see temperatures turn milder for a time before more cold air arrives. There is a small possibility of some light snow or flurries from late Sunday into Monday. Beyond next week, there remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change with both the GEFS and EPS beginning to move into better consensus. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. There remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of such a possible pattern change. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +15.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.443. On February 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.551 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.405 (RMM). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I genuinely feel that all the historical data that gets posted and discussed here is the absolute best part of this site. It’s so fascinating to look back and compare. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Meanwhile, this has been trending a little closer, although in baby steps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2022020418&fh=66 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2022020412&fh=90 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Last February was an outlier for us on extended snow cover. This winter so far is like other recent years with quick warm ups and snowmelt. While we had an increase in snowfall since 1981, the snow cover days haven’t kept up. This is great information. So essentially flat in terms of snowcover days despite what looks like (eyeballing it) rolling average increase of 10-12 inches annually? Makes sense I guess that the somewhat rising average temperatures over that timeframe offset the additional snow. Pretty interesting too that for all the memorable storms particularly in the latter two-thirds of that timeframe, that it amounts to only about 10-12 inch increase in annual snowfall. Understood that's a like a 30-40% increase, but in terms of actual snow, just seems like it would be more, given how we think of the 80s as so snowless and the 2000s/2010s as the best of times. Maybe we used to get smaller, more frequent storms (like all those decent clippers) that offset the big ones that we never got? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now