MJO812 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Gefs MJO Has been doing better than the Euro MJO No sign of the warm phases just yet for the next 2 weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 How does the EPS look days 10 to 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs MJO Has been doing better than the Euro MJO No sign of the warm phases just yet for the next 2 weeks. Honestly the next 2 weeks look cold. Just worried about the dryness of the current models. Nothing is worse than cold and dry. Perhaps this is a pattern where something will pop up short term. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Everyone has their own personal definition of what makes a good winter. For me it's a game to reach average annual snowfall. At 50% now. Hoping to make it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How does the EPS look days 10 to 15. Still a +PNA with a trough over the Great Lakes like the GEPS at the end of the run on the 19th. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Still a +PNA with a trough over the Great Lakes like the GEPS at the end of the run on the 19th. Thanks! Hopefully we do not go dry during this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 18 hours ago, the_other_guy said: I dont like what is happening in this forum with the weenies and personal attacks. spiraling out of control pretty quickly Lol. They're just hot dog reactions. Get a grip. The personal attacks have been going on for a decade plus. Most of it gets hidden when we get to it. 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Please get your facts straight before you post. This is getting silly. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March Where r you seeing this? The ensembles over night alll look cold till the end…unless you can see past mid month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Still a +PNA with a trough over the Great Lakes like the GEPS at the end of the run on the 19th. @snowman19 this ain’t a torch 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Honestly the next 2 weeks look cold. Just worried about the dryness of the current models. Nothing is worse than cold and dry. Perhaps this is a pattern where something will pop up short term. Those are the best patterns. Nothing and then bam. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 This winter should be dubbed The Weenie Wars. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Please get your facts straight before you post. This is getting silly. Yeah its one thing to enjoy playing the bad guy and post certain models showing a bad outcome…but none of the models right now show a torch in 10 days. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Just now, BxEngine said: Yeah its one thing to enjoy playing the bad guy and post certain models showing a bad outcome…but none of the models right now show a torch in 10 days. Exactly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 NYC just experienced its biggest February hourly temperature drop on record. The temperature fell 18° in just one hour. This beats the previous February record which was 10°. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&hours=1&month=feb&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Drove to work from Toms River to just outside Newark. 59 when I left, 36 when I arrived. That’s pretty massive. Just over the Driscoll the temp began plummeting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Storm for Monday is gone?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Where r you seeing this? The ensembles over night alll look cold till the end…unless you can see past mid month I'm not seeing it either. Actually the current period is the milder one that covers the coming week. The Feb 10-20 period looks chilly. Also notice how snowmanweenie doesn't say the EPO will be negative and PNA positive. Just that AO/NAO are positive 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC just experienced its biggest February hourly temperature drop on record. The temperature fell 18° in just one hour. This beats the previous February record which was 10°. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&hours=1&month=feb&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png It was also the largest hourly decline during winter. The old mark was 13 degrees. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 43 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yeah its one thing to enjoy playing the bad guy and post certain models showing a bad outcome…but none of the models right now show a torch in 10 days. No torch, just a warmup starting around the 17th-18th. The CFSv2 is very warm during week 4, but that's way out of its skillful range. There is uncertainty, as some guidance shows the Alaska Ridge pattern holding on until around the 20th before an Arctic Low pattern favoring ridging in the East develops. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Everyone has their own personal definition of what makes a good winter. For me it's a game to reach average annual snowfall. At 50% now. Hoping to make it. If winter ended now I’d give it a C/C-. Cold and snowy January but normal is still 8-9 more inches here (have about 24”, average is 32-33” here). December was a disaster. Hopefully Feb can have some snowy periods to get us above average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: FWIW, the weeklies are still going for a SSW in late February into March. This is a new product added recently to the site. So there is really no track record on very long range skill of this product. In the past, these SSWs have taken from 1 day to 21 days to reach the surface. But it’s highly uncertain as to whether this even occurs in the first place. Feb 28 to Mar 7 Mar 7 to 14 Mar 14 to Mar 21 Mentioned in another post before, however the fact that the air mass is much cooler than 2018 may lead to quicker results. I remember the first storm was a bit too warm for snow as we were heading out of the February furnace. This year's constant -EPO may lead to a quicker snowier outcome if this does indeed occur. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Quick post: NCEP EMC knows about the GFS problems handling sleet and snow mixes as all snow at 10 to 1. They also know that this biases GFS snow depth and make the boundary layer too cold (also this mornings busted temps on the se edge of the freezing rain). May also be affecting the FV3 shorter range model seen in TT. All this in an 11AM WPC-EMC meeting yesterday. When it gets fixed? Do not know. They did not have enough ice event samples in 2019-20 to witness this as problem for the recently implemented GFS upgrade. Next: I like the pattern for Feb and if the SSW is real, could be a fun and interesting end to winter. All I know is that I won't end up with the 14.4" of snow so far this winter and could see a doubling or tripling by April 15 (especially if SSW) to get me to 40"? I suppose that's a long shot but Feb pattern and possible SSW offer a little hope. My concern is that the EPS weeklies do not seem to be doing well after 2 weeks, and I do not see a huge warmup in the east until we consistently lose the ridge in AK. Take a look at Feb 7-8: Some have given up, just as it's starting to look better. Could be NC to BOS near I95 period of snow or maybe a bit more than that? The 500MB pattern imo favors more events along the east coast with the cold trough straddling 80-85W for much of the month. As long as we keep getting 1045-55MB highs moving se out of W Canada, there is hope. Do NOT want to replace that consistently with low pressure. Will post ice accums when its over in the thread. Gotta work and expecting/hoping for a healthy grandchild #2 at Noon. 11 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snowman is lying The pattern will change but not just yet Where did I say torch? It is going to get mild after mid-month. Not once did I say torch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: NYC just experienced its biggest February hourly temperature drop on record. The temperature fell 18° in just one hour. This beats the previous February record which was 10°. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&hours=1&month=feb&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It was also the largest hourly decline during winter. The old mark was 13 degrees. Those are some incredible stats! Add it to our repertiore of extremes. Thanks for sharing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @snowman19 this ain’t a torch Not once did I say torch. Nowhere in my post was the word torch used….unless “mild” is the new synonym for “torch” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Quick post: NCEP EMC knows about the GFS problems handling sleet and snow mixes as all snow at 10 to 1. They also know that this biases GFS snow depth and make the boundary layer too cold (also this mornings busted temps on the se edge of the freezing rain). May also be affecting the FV3 shorter range model seen in TT. All this in an 11AM WPC-EMC meeting yesterday. When it gets fixed? Do not know. They did not have enough ice event samples in 2019-20 to witness this as problem for the recently implemented GFS upgrade. The whole FV3 upgrade process seems to be very bumpy. The GFS initially had the January 3rd heavy snow event in ACY further north up into our area. Then we saw it too far to the east with the blizzard last weekend. It seems that some forecast outlets held off on the snow forecast until they saw the GFS coming back NW. So this adds an unnecessary layer of confusion to the forecast process. It also raises the question of what will happen once the NAM is discontinued. Its already been 5 years since the last NAM upgrade and it’s showing with other models like the improving RGEM jumping around less than the NAM from run to run. It would be even more confusing if a FV3 NAM replacement introduces a whole new set of biases that complicate the forecast process. We are getting to the point where it seems better to rely more on the GEM, RGEM, and Euro. Sometimes the HREF and HRRR does well. But even they have their issues at times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Does anyone uses any methods other than models to forecast anymore? Modelology should be it's own course of study... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The whole FV3 upgrade process seems to be very bumpy. The GFS initially had the January 3rd heavy snow event in ACY further north up into our area. Then we saw it too far to the east with the blizzard last weekend. It seems that some forecast outlets held off on the snow forecast until they saw the GFS coming back NW. So this adds an unnecessary layer of confusion to the forecast process. It also raises the question of what will happen where the NAM is discontinued. It’s already been 5 years since the last NAM upgrade and it’s showing with other models like the improving RGEM jumping around less from run to run. It would be even more confusing if a FV3 NAM replacement introduces a whole new set of biases that complicate the forecast process. We are getting to the point where it seems better to rely more on the GEM, RGEM, and Euro. Sometimes the HREF and HRRR dies well. But even they have their issues at times. I Thought the HRRR did well last storm. Nailed the gradient in nj with jersey shore jackpot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I Thought the HRRR did well last storm. Nailed the gradient in nj with jersey shore jackpot It did a day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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