February 2022

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@AllsnowCall me crazy but I think the models may be too aggressive/overdone with the EPO/PNA pump for early March, we have seen this many times in the past few winters. Then they correct weaker or even lose it as we get closer in time….I don’t think they lose it but I can certainly see them correct weaker. There is also a very real possibility that the gradient sets up to our north and we end up on the wrong/warm side of it, some of the operational runs in all 3 major globals have shown this possibility

Who's we? There is a big difference in climo between I84 and Long island and coastal Jersey. All globals showing a wintry possibility N and W. 

[dmillz25]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@AllsnowCall me crazy but I think the models may be too aggressive/overdone with the EPO/PNA pump for early March, we have seen this many times in the past few winters. Then they correct weaker or even lose it as we get closer in time….I don’t think they lose it but I can certainly see them correct weaker. There is also a very real possibility that the gradient sets up to our north and we end up on the wrong/warm side of it, some of the operational runs in all 3 major globals have shown this possibility

Why are you like this lol. But honestly there is always that possibility. It’s a wait and see at this point

[Volcanic Winter]

48 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

We never go through a winter without warmer periods. Things look to change late Feb into early March. 

Well, of course we always have warm days in winter here. The point was (and was verified by a chart posted a couple pages back) that the number of 60 degree days in winter here is steadily increasing as the overall climate system warms. 

[MJO812]

Gfs showing a better cold press so far for next week 

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Well, of course we always have warm days in winter here. The point was (and was verified by a chart posted a couple pages back) that the number of 60 degree days in winter here is steadily increasing as the overall climate system warms. 

I am definitely a believer that global warming is real and concerning but this winter is probably not a great example since we've been in the icebox for the mostpart basically since the start of January.  

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Why are you like this lol. But honestly there is always that possibility. It’s a wait and see at this point

He's a troll. Ignore it. He's been hilariously wrong all year and gets things right about as often as a dead clock.

So far the ensembles are favorable for late Feb into March. Can they change warmer, sure, but until that happens the colder path is more probable.

[HVSnowLover]

This storm for next Friday is showing up on basically every run of every model and it's coming across the country so not likely it will just dissapear but the question is if it's going to be a wintry event or a cutter that changes the pattern.  

[Snowshack]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I am definitely a believer that global warming is real and concerning but this winter is probably not a great example since we've been in the icebox for the mostpart basically since the start of January.  

What about December and February both being AN?

[Volcanic Winter]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I am definitely a believer that global warming is real and concerning but this winter is probably not a great example since we've been in the icebox for the mostpart basically since the start of January.  

Absolutely, not every specific event is tied to it and and extreme, variable weather always occurred. Was just making a general point not specific to this winter per se. 
 

As someone who enjoys the cold, I simply try to cherish each cold day that we get.

Or perhaps, I should’ve just been born during the LIA. People were a bit stinkier back then but I’d be in my winter glory nonetheless. 

[LoboLeader1]

63 here, it feels good not wearing a heavy jacket & gloves for once.

[Volcanic Winter]

Warmth appears to be overperforming a bit at my two locations. 65 at work in Hillside and 65 at my house in TR. 

[winterwx21]

66 degrees here. What a day.

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, guinness77 said:

Another 60+mph wind event…ho-hum, nothing to see here 

They’ve become the norm dating back to March 2010, I think we got one at least once a year now

[winterwx21]

12z GGEM shows a significant winter storm next thursday night into friday. Snow to ice back to snow. Obviously a long way to go, but we certainly have something to watch.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

He's a troll. Ignore it. He's been hilariously wrong all year and gets things right about as often as a dead clock.

So far the ensembles are favorable for late Feb into March. Can they change warmer, sure, but until that happens the colder path is more probable.

You are the worst poster here, hands down. You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Warmth appears to be overperforming a bit at my two locations. 65 at work in Hillside and 65 at my house in TR. 

As we continue to warm, it’s easier for the warmth to beat model guidance. We started out with one of the warmest Decembers on record. While January was our coldest in years, the cold wasn’t anywhere close to the magnitude of the warmth in December. The average around 30° was well outside top 10 coldest range that we have experienced in the past. The back and forth February makes the cold days seem colder. But the warm days have been setting records. So the record warmth will result in a warmer than average February and winter as a whole. This will be our 7th warmer than average winter in a row.  3rd warmest December in NYC against 55th coldest January. 2004 was the last time that January almost made it to top 10 coldest.
 

Warmest Decembers

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0
11	1994	42.2	0
12	1923	42.0	0
13	2012	41.5	0
14	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
16	1979	41.1	0
17	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
19	1971	40.8	0
20	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
22	1957	40.2	0
23	2018	40.1	0

Coldest Januaries

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1918	21.7	0
2	1977	22.0	0
3	1888	23.2	0
4	1920	23.4	0
5	1875	23.6	1
6	1912	23.7	0
7	1893	23.8	0
8	1883	24.4	0
9	1884	24.5	0
10	1881	24.6	0
11	2004	24.7	0
12	1940	25.0	0
13	1970	25.1	0
14	1945	25.2	0
15	1904	25.3	0
16	1948	25.4	0
17	1994	25.5	0
18	1879	25.9	2
19	1886	26.0	0
20	1982	26.1	0
21	1981	26.2	0
22	1968	26.7	0
23	1971	26.9	0
24	1976	27.3	0
25	1873	27.4	0
26	2003	27.5	0
27	1961	27.7	0
-	1877	27.7	0
29	2009	27.9	0
30	1978	28.0	0
31	1871	28.1	2
32	1922	28.2	0
33	1887	28.3	0
-	1882	28.3	0
35	1925	28.4	0
36	1957	28.5	0
37	2014	28.6	0
38	1985	28.8	0
-	1935	28.8	0
40	1885	29.1	0
-	1872	29.1	0
42	1936	29.3	0
-	1905	29.3	0
44	1941	29.4	0
45	1988	29.5	0
46	1965	29.6	0
-	1895	29.6	0
48	2011	29.7	0
49	2015	29.9	0
-	1984	29.9	0
-	1923	29.9	0
-	1878	29.9	0
53	1896	30.0	0
54	1963	30.1	0
55	2022	30.3	0

[Tatamy]

Up to 62 here with a recent wind gust to 33mph.  Winds are starting to crank out here.

[SnoSki14]

Less clouds now and temperatures really soaring. 66F

[Rjay]

Nyc 65

Ewr 67

[winterwx21]

Now up to 67 here. No surprise that the warmth is overperforming.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Nyc 65

Ewr 67

Full of win 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Full of win 

68 now at ewr lol

[SnoSki14]

Wild it was just in the teens a couple days ago and it'll be back in the teens a couple days from now.

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As we continue to warm, it’s easier for the warmth to beat model guidance. We started out with one of the warmest Decembers on record. While January was our coldest in years, the cold wasn’t anywhere close to the magnitude of the warmth in December. The average around 30° was well outside top 10 coldest range that we have experienced in the past. The back and forth February makes the cold days seem colder. But the warm days have been setting records. So the record warmth will result in a warmer than average February and winter as a whole. This will be our 7th warmer than average winter in a row.  3rd warmest December in NYC against 55th coldest January. 2004 was the last time that January almost made it to top 10 coldest.
 

Warmest Decembers

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0
11	1994	42.2	0
12	1923	42.0	0
13	2012	41.5	0
14	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
16	1979	41.1	0
17	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
19	1971	40.8	0
20	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
22	1957	40.2	0
23	2018	40.1	0

Coldest Januaries

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1918	21.7	0
2	1977	22.0	0
3	1888	23.2	0
4	1920	23.4	0
5	1875	23.6	1
6	1912	23.7	0
7	1893	23.8	0
8	1883	24.4	0
9	1884	24.5	0
10	1881	24.6	0
11	2004	24.7	0
12	1940	25.0	0
13	1970	25.1	0
14	1945	25.2	0
15	1904	25.3	0
16	1948	25.4	0
17	1994	25.5	0
18	1879	25.9	2
19	1886	26.0	0
20	1982	26.1	0
21	1981	26.2	0
22	1968	26.7	0
23	1971	26.9	0
24	1976	27.3	0
25	1873	27.4	0
26	2003	27.5	0
27	1961	27.7	0
-	1877	27.7	0
29	2009	27.9	0
30	1978	28.0	0
31	1871	28.1	2
32	1922	28.2	0
33	1887	28.3	0
-	1882	28.3	0
35	1925	28.4	0
36	1957	28.5	0
37	2014	28.6	0
38	1985	28.8	0
-	1935	28.8	0
40	1885	29.1	0
-	1872	29.1	0
42	1936	29.3	0
-	1905	29.3	0
44	1941	29.4	0
45	1988	29.5	0
46	1965	29.6	0
-	1895	29.6	0
48	2011	29.7	0
49	2015	29.9	0
-	1984	29.9	0
-	1923	29.9	0
-	1878	29.9	0
53	1896	30.0	0
54	1963	30.1	0
55	2022	30.3	0

Bluewave,

I say this with great respect for the other intelligent posters here that contribute insightful commentary and information, but if I could choose the “A WX Best User of Winter 21-22” award, it would be going to you.

Always contributing useful and relevant analysis and information. In my short time here it’s much appreciated.  

[tek1972]

This storm for next Friday is showing up on basically every run of every model and it's coming across the country so not likely it will just dissapear but the question is if it's going to be a wintry event or a cutter that changes the pattern.  

Starting first week in March snow quickly melts on roads after the storm. So that is ideal for me. Like the look, hate the travel. By the second week in March I barely need to shovel my driveway with less than six inches

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[wthrmn654]

54

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Full of win 

I'm sweating

Not good

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Bluewave,

I say this with great respect for the other intelligent posters here that contribute insightful commentary and information, but if I could choose the “A WX Best User of Winter 21-22” award, it would be going to you.

Always contributing useful and relevant analysis and information. In my short time here it’s much appreciated.  

Thanks for the compliments. I enjoy your posts also. The Xmacis2 site allows for us to put everything in context. The volatility in these patterns certainly introduces challenges for long range forecasting. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm sweating

Not good

I find 60s very comfortable. Looking forward to running with a t-shirt on this afternoon. I love winter and snow, but it's nice to have some of these very warm days mixed in. I don't mind the more Colorado style winters that we've had in recent years, with the combination of warmer temps but still getting plenty of snow.

[forkyfork]

On 2/16/2022 at 11:52 AM, wthrmn654 said:

A torch is defined as being 10 or more above normal temperatures.  With that said,  in the OKX region,  no records are expected to be broken as there in the mid- upper 60s.

oopsy doopsy