February 2022

[LoboLeader1]

12F here this AM. High yesterday was 37F shortly after 1AM.

[MJO812]

Bluewave stated that phase 7 is cold for us in March. Euro is almost there. It barely stays in the warm phases.

 

[EasternLI]

Will need to keep an eye on the possibility that ridging tries to push into NW Canada like this. That would try to squash the SE ridge somewhat. Here's the 00z eps.

[kat5hurricane]

13 hours ago, CIK62 said:

YOU KNOW ITS BAD WHEN THE MOST EXCITING UPCOMING WINTER EVENT IS A POSSIBLE  HIGH WIND  WARNING  ON FRIDAY.       THAT COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.       WE WANT A BLIZZARD!

 

 

 

Nothing "BAD" about this winter at all, at least from the city on east. Not sure why some people keep saying this. North and West of the city is a different story.

[gravitylover]

Even though I am still below 20" on the season I wouldn't say it has been all bad. January was plenty cold and there has been snow on the ground for more than 30 days straight. There have been many days with snow falling to keep the wintry appeal strong too. Sure I'd rather be at 36"+ but it can't be all about snowfall to the exclusion of other aspects of winter.

[EastonSN+]

59 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Will need to keep an eye on the possibility that ridging tries to push into NW Canada like this. That would try to squash the SE ridge somewhat. Here's the 00z eps.

MJO wave according to charts is screaming towards 7 and 8 and could be there by the 10th. That could be the start of the look.

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a blend of the record SPV +AO and La Niña MJO 5. So the TPV is over Greenland instead of Alaska. The CFS has the same pattern. The VP anomalies match up so we get a warmer than average +PNA SE Ridge pattern near the start of March.

 

 

Thanks for this. Do you think we have a decent shot at reaching phases 7 and 8 by mid March? The MJO wave according to forecast seems to be moving faster.

[EastonSN+]

38 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Even though I am still below 20" on the season I wouldn't say it has been all bad. January was plenty cold and there has been snow on the ground for more than 30 days straight. There have been many days with snow falling to keep the wintry appeal strong too. Sure I'd rather be at 36"+ but it can't be all about snowfall to the exclusion of other aspects of winter.

For me it's not a bad winter to date, BUT if I am shut out the rest of the winter than yes I would consider this a bad winter.

Definitely not a ratter or terrible winter, but bad IMO.

[EastonSN+]

Personal definitions

Less than 10 inches ratter

Less than 15 terrible

Less than 20 bad

Less than 25 disappointing

Less than 30 slightly disappointing

[EasternLI]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a blend of the record SPV +AO and La Niña MJO 5. So the TPV is over Greenland instead of Alaska. The CFS has the same pattern. The VP anomalies match up so we get a warmer than average +PNA SE Ridge pattern near the start of March.

 

 

Yeah, agreed. Was thinking the +AO was playing some role with that. And there you have it. Makes sense conceptually, to me. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Personal definitions

Less than 10 inches ratter

Less than 15 terrible

Less than 20 bad

Less than 25 disappointing

Less than 30 slightly disappointing

My average is 27 

I'm at 22 so not bad

[the_other_guy]

Mediocre

 

Probably around 15-20 inches so far…but many more days of snow on ground then places that had more snow like NYC and Nassau.

 

The cold January and even the 13 this morning kept this winter interesting.

 

Had it not been for the cold, I would say bad winter.

 

February looks done. If we eek out anything in March, great

[uncle W]

some la nina or weak negative years had a mild second half of February and then a snowstorm in March...

1956-57...1975-76...1980-81...1983-84...2017-18...

[psv88]

32” for the season. Dead on average. Every event overperformed and we got one massive blizzard. Not an amazing winter, but not bad either. 

[CIK62]

THE MONTH OF  MARCH  "CFS Extended STYLE":

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

THE MONTH OF  MARCH  "CFS Extended STYLE:

That means low 40s and rain. Yay!

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That means low 40s and rain. Yay!

And snow

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

THE MONTH OF  MARCH  "CFS Extended STYLE:

We have seen more snow lately in March than we have in December. 

[Eduardo]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Mediocre

 

Probably around 15-20 inches so far…but many more days of snow on ground then places that had more snow like NYC and Nassau.

 

The cold January and even the 13 this morning kept this winter interesting.

 

Had it not been for the cold, I would say bad winter.

 

February looks done. If we eek out anything in March, great

This is roughly how I feel about the winter so far, although I am actually more hopeful that March gets us close to normal seasonal snowfall. 

The cold in January was nice, but I'm still waiting for the type of extreme cold that freezes the City waterways.  Been awhile since we've seen that!

[MJO812]

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

[Eduardo]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

I will lose all faith in humanity if you defect to the warmanistas. 

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

What? 

Did snowman hack your account? 

But I hear you. I enjoy winter. But I also enjoy summer. Spring is really the only season I dislike here. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

What? 

Did snowman hack your account? 

But I hear you. I enjoy winter. But I also enjoy summer. Spring is really the only season I dislike here. 

I like spring more

I hate the heat 

[Volcanic Winter]

I can’t complain down where I live (inland TR). Had a very cold January with more single digits lows than I can recall the past several years, and we did very well with snow down here. I have more snow at my house than I received at work in Union Co. 

Living where I do I trade the more consistent snowfall for a chance to be pretty prime time for a nor’easter with the right track and with cold air in place. Paid off this winter. 
 

Despite the cold, the snow didn’t hang around as much as it did in 13 and 14. Those winters had the most snowpack I can recall at my house. Lived in North Brunswick for the mighty Boxing Day Storm and subsequent amazing winter. 

[Volcanic Winter]

But I absolutely loathe torching in Jan or Feb (Dec I suppose I’m already used to) so this month is painful for me. All it does is remind me of where things are heading with current AGW, and it reminds me how our area is one of the fastest warming places in winter in the country. Tough to appreciate nice days when I think about what it represents. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this. Do you think we have a decent shot at reaching phases 7 and 8 by mid March? The MJO wave according to forecast seems to be moving faster.

Remember when the models were “racing” the MJO last month and they had early February torching? Then it didn’t? 

[matt8204]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

Same here.  The cold definitely bothers me more now than it did when I was a kid...and this comes from someone who could spend hours outside in the dead of winter playing pond hockey.  I don't know if I could do it now.  

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Remember when the models were “racing” the MJO last month and they had early February torching? Then it didn’t? 

Yes. Im with you on latching onto MJO 4 weeks out.

And mid-march…It’s like the Bengals getting one more shot with just over a minute last night.

[Cfa]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

Join the winning team. 

[snowman19]

^I think any change would come after mid-March just in time to ruin the end of March and April. Would not be at all surprised to see -NAO blocking develop in late March and go into April…..