February 2022

[EastonSN+]

I think this is simple. If Forky chimes in it's a real threat until then meh

[donsutherland1]

The long-range guidance remains in good consensus about the development of a sustained warmer pattern after mid-month. In some past cases, such a pattern change has been preceded by a snowfall. Currently, there is considerable disagreement among the model solutions with the GGEM being the northern/warmest outlier and UKMET being much farther south and east. There has been some clustering of EPS individual members with respect to measurable snow. At present, the National Blend of Models (NBM) also favors a 1"-3"/2"-4"-type snowfall from Washington, DC to New York City, but the divergence in models suggests that a lot of uncertainty exists.

In terms of teleconnections, an AO+ is very likely during  Sunday-Monday when the modeled storm could impact the region. Already, the AO is strongly positive (+1.945 preliminary value). There is considerable uncertainty concerning the PNA.

Select data for the February 7-21, 1950-2021 period when the AO was positive:

New York City: 21% of 4" or greater storms (n=28 storms); Biggest: 12.8" (PNA-)
Philadelphia: 27% of 4" or greater storms (n=22 storms); Biggest: 11.5" (PNA-)
Washington, DC: 35% of 4" or greater storms (n=17 storms); Biggest: 8.2" (PNA+)

In sum, the historic data suggest that a moderate snowfall remains possible, even as the guidance currently favors a light snowfall. But the synoptic details, including the position of the trough and its orientation, would need to come together in just the right fashion to produce a moderate snowfall. Right now, the model divergence suggests that the details remain to be resolved. By Friday, the models should be converging on a solution.

 

[Northof78]

thread started for this storm

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The long-range guidance remains in good consensus about the development of a sustained warmer pattern after mid-month. In some past cases, such a pattern change has been preceded by a snowfall. Currently, there is considerable disagreement among the model solutions with the GGEM being the northern/warmest outlier and UKMET being much farther south and east. There has been some clustering of EPS individual members with respect to measurable snow. At present, the National Blend of Models (NBM) also favors a 1"-3"/2"-4"-type snowfall from Washington, DC to New York City, but the divergence in models suggests that a lot of uncertainty exists.

In terms of teleconnections, an AO+ is very likely during  Sunday-Monday when the modeled storm could impact the region. Already, the AO is strongly positive (+1.945 preliminary value). There is considerable uncertainty concerning the PNA.

Select data for the February 7-21, 1950-2021 period when the AO was positive:

New York City: 21% of 4" or greater storms (n=28 storms); Biggest: 12.8" (PNA-)
Philadelphia: 27% of 4" or greater storms (n=22 storms); Biggest: 11.5" (PNA-)
Washington, DC: 35% of 4" or greater storms (n=17 storms); Biggest: 8.2" (PNA+)

In sum, the historic data suggest that a moderate snowfall remains possible, even as the guidance currently favors a light snowfall. But the synoptic details, including the position of the trough and its orientation, would need to come together in just the right fashion to produce a moderate snowfall. Right now, the model divergence suggests that the details remain to be resolved. By Friday, the models should be converging on a solution.

 

Don how is it that the chances increase the further south you go of a 4" snowfall?

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think this is simple. If Forky chimes in it's a real threat until then meh

dude should have a network job

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Doorman said:

last 5 runs 

 

weather channel just did a piece on this storm and they showed all the models and the GFS had our area in a moderate snowfall. (3-5 or 5-8).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Meet in the middle an we get a good storm? Sign me up.  Snow falling on super bowl Sunday... yes please

superbowl right into valentines day, it's awesome

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, matt8204 said:

Shades of Super Bowl 2014?  It was 50 degrees the day of the game, followed by a snowstorm twelve hours later.  

didnt we have the superbowl in NJ that year?

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Don how is it that the chances increase the further south you go of a 4" snowfall?

 

Wave lengths begin to shorten around or after mid-month and the teleconnections begin to grow less important overall. That Philadelphia and Washington are also farther inland than NYC might allow them to avoid some of the marine influence that NYC experiences leading to slower transitions to rain.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If you are referring to the last big storm I would say the end results are the surface for just fine for most of the subforum. 

Yeah, that storm might be a good comparison for this one, just cut the amounts in half.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Wave lengths begin to shorten around or after mid-month and the teleconnections begin to grow less important overall. That Philadelphia and Washington are also farther inland than NYC might allow them to avoid some of the marine influence that NYC experiences leading to slower transitions to rain.

is that when atlantic blocking becomes less important too?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Nothing wrong with pulling a 3-6/4-8 event this deep into winter to at least remind us that winter isn’t quite done yet, right?

the big picture is the amounts keep going up, which is a good sign, 6-10 here if it happens

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

so it went from 1-3 to 2-4 to now 6-10 no wonder  TWC mets are getting excited about this storm lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Phases 5-6 in March are warm during a La Niña. So it looks like March could come in mild. But if the MJO can make it over to phase 7, then we could get a cool down in mid to late March. Hard to tell from this far out in time.

 

Chris what happened to that SSW you were talking about?  If that works out we could cool down quickly come mid March

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris what happened to that SSW you were talking about?  If that works out we could cool down quickly come mid March

 

The current SPV is very strong and beginning to couple with the +AO. That’s why this month is turning out warmer than January was. So it’s the opposite of what a SSW is. 
 

 

[wthrmn654]

At Deadhorse AK, it's -53F with a -76F wind chill.  Good enough for a record low for February 8.  They're not alone, as other places on the AK North Slope are in the -40s and -50s F.  

Yesterday 

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how is it that the chances increase the further south you go of a 4" snowfall?

 

If you look more closely at those stats as presented in the original post, they aren't saying that there is a greater chance of a 4" snowstorm with AO+ as you go south (the likelihood is similar at all 3 locations), but rather it makes up a larger percentage of the 4" snowfalls as you go south.  Put another way, it implies that NYC is more likely to see a 4" snowfall than either PHL or DCA when the AO is not positive.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If you look more closely at those stats, they aren't saying that there is a greater chance of a 4" snowstorm with AO+ as you go south (the likelihood is similar at all 3 locations), but rather it makes up a larger percentage of the 4" snowfalls as you go south.  Put another way, it implies that NYC is more likely to see a 4" snowfall than either PHL or DCA when the AO is not positive.

That’s correct.

[HVSnowLover]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah, that storm might be a good comparison for this one, just cut the amounts in half.

 

Im just surprised how disappointed people were with 8-16 inches of snow from that storm from NYC and points east. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

If it's going to be this fast and weak it's a much smaller scale storm. But I think the Euro is probably too fast at this point. We'll see.

WX/PT

[L.I.Pete]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Im just surprised how disappointed people were with 8-16 inches of snow from that storm from NYC and points east. 

Always some upset folks when one or more models spits out 30"+ for the metro a couple days before the storm and we get half that LOL. I was ecstatic with my 18"! 

[larrye]

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Im just surprised how disappointed people were with 8-16 inches of snow from that storm from NYC and points east. 

When people are screaming 35" on Long Island and at 1'-2' in the NY Metro and it doesn't happen, you're going to have a certain group of people that call them out on it. Face up to it. 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Im just surprised how disappointed people were with 8-16 inches of snow from that storm from NYC and points east. 

With the record KU pattern since 09-10, the bar has been raised relative to what past expectations used to be. Everyone wants to be closer to the big jackpot zone. With the lateJanuary blizzard, the place to be was around ISP. My only real disappointment in this new snowfall era was missing the NEMO 50 DBZ 6”+ per hour band and the near 40” max. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/02/01/northeast-snow-storm-climate/

Single-day records are not the only objective way to quantify the incredible winter weather activity of recent years. A metric known as the Northeast Snow Impact Scale (NESIS), which calculates the population-weighted snowfall footprints of winter storms, can be used to compare the social strain induced by Northeast winters. Analysis of NESIS data shows the 2008-2018 period saw more than three times as many winter storms as any other decade since at least 1958-1968.

 

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, larrye said:

When people are screaming 35" on Long Island and at 1'-2' in the NY Metro and it doesn't happen, you're going to have a certain group of people that call them out on it. Face up to it. 

I can’t think of anyone other than clickbait like Joe B calling for that kind of storm in NYC. To me it turned out about as was expected. Central Park had 8.5” when the range almost everyone had was 6-12” there. I’m convinced someone in the Hamptons ended close to 30” given how long the banding lasted there. It was a fast flow, progressive pattern in a +AO where stats showed NYC was unlikely to get major snow from. The double barrel and slow cutting off killed a major event west of Nassau County and we had a Juno 2015 like outcome. 

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If you look more closely at those stats as presented in the original post, they aren't saying that there is a greater chance of a 4" snowstorm with AO+ as you go south (the likelihood is similar at all 3 locations), but rather it makes up a larger percentage of the 4" snowfalls as you go south.  Put another way, it implies that NYC is more likely to see a 4" snowfall than either PHL or DCA when the AO is not positive.

ah okay I thought it was the -PNA not the +AO, this is why we have to be so careful with stats.  Logic must also be applied; I like how you restated with the converse statement of NYC more likely to see a 4" snowfall when the AO isn't +

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s correct.

and even when you look at the total number of storms, NYC is higher than the other two cities with a +AO, and I think the total number matters more than the percentage.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can’t think of anyone other than clickbait like Joe B calling for that kind of storm in NYC. To me it turned out about as was expected. Central Park had 8.5” when the range almost everyone had was 6-12” there. I’m convinced someone in the Hamptons ended close to 30” given how long the banding lasted there. It was a fast flow, progressive pattern in a +AO where stats showed NYC was unlikely to get major snow from. The double barrel and slow cutting off killed a major event west of Nassau County and we had a Juno 2015 like outcome. 

People need to stop being fixated so much on Central Park.  The majority of people who live in the city live in Brooklyn and Queens and they both had double digits.  I've never lived in Manhattan and never wanted to live in Manhattan, it's a place to work not a place to live in.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can’t think of anyone other than clickbait like Joe B calling for that kind of storm in NYC. To me it turned out about as was expected. Central Park had 8.5” when the range almost everyone had was 6-12” there. I’m convinced someone in the Hamptons ended close to 30” given how long the banding lasted there. It was a fast flow, progressive pattern in a +AO where stats showed NYC was unlikely to get major snow from. The double barrel and slow cutting off killed a major event west of Nassau County and we had a Juno 2015 like outcome. 

I thought you said the freak double low thing prevented Manhattan from having a big snowstorm?  +AO wouldn't have mattered and Forky would have been right if it wasn't for that.   I'm only going to isolate it to Manhattan because Brooklyn and Queens did well in the storm.  But you always hear people whining because they are obsessed with Central Park for some odd reason.

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Im just surprised how disappointed people were with 8-16 inches of snow from that storm from NYC and points east. 

as I just stated I dont even care what Manhattan gets, most of the people who live in the city live in Brooklyn and Queens and both got double digits and a foot or more of snow.  We just need to stop being fixated on Central Park for snowfall amounts and temperatures.

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, larrye said:

When people are screaming 35" on Long Island and at 1'-2' in the NY Metro and it doesn't happen, you're going to have a certain group of people that call them out on it. Face up to it. 

um most of New York City did get around a foot of snow.