LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What warmth? I had a forecast high of 39 and only got up to 37 today. 8 days into the month so far and we are exactly average. I know the next few days are going to be above average but I don't see any extended heat wave. it's February, there are no heat waves in February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: It actually felt nice. If it's not gonna snow BRING THE WARMTH! especially since it can go from 60 to over a foot of snow the next day lol, so it should always be warm on the days it doesn't snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 GFS looking better this morning. Reminds of a 13/14 type system. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS looking better this morning. Reminds of a 13/14 type system. Interesting- I take it this is the model of choice this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The GFS did good in picking up the 1/29 storm, like a week out - then completely lost it while the Euro found it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Morning thoughts… After a cool start, it will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 51° Temperatures will remain above normal into the weekend.. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.1° Newark: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 41.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 34degs.(27/40) or -1. Volatile pattern which may not work out. Month to date is 34.5[+0.5]. Should be 34.2[-0.3] by the 17th. Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 43-46, wind w. to s., m.clear and cloudy tonight, 40 tomorrow AM. 70% chance of at least an 1" by Tuesday PM----was 50% yesterday. 31*(61%RH) here at 6am. Reached 43* at4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 17° and the snow pack lives on. 33 straight days and counting. It will be interesting to see if this snow, ice, and sleet encrusted block of snow and ice can make it through 3-4 days of highs in the 40's. My money is on the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The main reason the models all have a different solution for the low on Valentine’s Day is that it’s being formed by a lobe of the TPV diving SE from Alaska. These type of disturbances can be very volatile and difficult for the models. We need the for the TPV come out just right to avoid suppressing the southern stream. Seems to many that every snow threat is difficult for the models, not only this year but every year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I definitely remember storms where the models locked in a good ways out and never wavered. Obviously totals change, but just having a solid read on the dynamics and overall threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I definitely remember storms where the models locked in a good ways out and never wavered. Obviously totals change, but just having a solid read on the dynamics and overall threat. Usually only with a west based -NAO, in patterns where things are moving fast you usually only see that happen if the storm is a monster 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Sure, that makes good sense. It’s probably those notable events I followed more closely that are sticking out in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Looks like all the models finally weaken the +PNA after Presidents Day as the split forcing consolidates near the Maritime Continent. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like all the models finally weaken the +PNA after Presidents Day as the split forcing consolidates near the Maritime Continent. So cold spring? Ugh 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nothing wrong with pulling a 3-6/4-8 event this deep into winter to at least remind us that winter isn’t quite done yet, right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So cold spring? Ugh Phases 5-6 in March are warm during a La Niña. So it looks like March could come in mild. But if the MJO can make it over to phase 7, then we could get a cool down in mid to late March. Hard to tell from this far out in time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Phases 5-6 in March are warm during a La Niña. So it looks like March could come in mild. But if the MJO can make it over to phase 7, then we could get a cool down in mid to late March. Hard to tell from this far out in time. Thanks! Where did u pull the above? Would love access to site as the one I have does not delineate La for El Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 whatever snow falls next week is going to melt quickly 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, forkyfork said: whatever snow falls next week is going to melt quickly Best of both worlds. Snowstorm followed by nice weather. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Where did u pull the above? Would love access to site as the one I have does not delineate La for El Thanks! It’s a French site. The ENSO specific composites come in handy. But since the MJO can be just one part of the forcing equation, there can be variations when interference patterns exist. They seem to work best when there is a strong MJO without other competing forcing influences. https://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/mjo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Best of both worlds. Snowstorm followed by nice weather. Meh it's still winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 MJO is going into 4 by the end of the month so a warm March isn't out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Cold*** Stormy*** how much snow in your backyard- TBD 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 the big three ensembles EPS GFS GEPS that's all folks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The 12Z NAM/RGEM both at the end of their runs look more GFSish, thats for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Meh it's still winter At least it's gonna be cold monday and tuesday. So we'd have a couple days to enjoy the snow on the ground, before the big melting midweek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doorman said: the big three ensembles EPS GFS GEPS that's all folks all I ask is for these to actually verify and just slightly more and I mean a smidgen more West and slightly inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 12Z NAM/RGEM both at the end of their runs look more GFSish, thats for sure Rgem might be more amped than the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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