Volcanic Winter Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I thought that was QPF at first . Lock it in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Get your shit together guys. Please use the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 We are back to the high temperatures beating guidance as the TPV retreats further NW with the more +AO pattern. February pattern so far January pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are back to the high temperatures beating guidance as the TPV retreats further NW with the more +AO pattern. February pattern so far January pattern It actually felt nice. If it's not gonna snow BRING THE WARMTH! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 EVEN GIVEN THE FULL 16 DAYS, THE GEFS CAN NOT EVEN GUARANTEE A 1" MIN. FOR US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 What warmth? I had a forecast high of 39 and only got up to 37 today. 8 days into the month so far and we are exactly average. I know the next few days are going to be above average but I don't see any extended heat wave. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, larrye said: Seems like all of a sudden you only need H5 favorable with no surface support for there to be a storm now. I heard this all week long leading up to the last storm also. Yea and NYC and east ended up with 10-20+ inches when surface depictions were showing 2-3 inches when H5 was screaming something bigger. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 As with just about every storm threat this year, we need the southern vort max to round the base of the trof - we need PVA on the downstream side of the trof to initiate a negative tilt, raise heights downstream sooner, and keep the zone of high baroclinicity closer to the coast instead of offshore. This would enable a SLP center to form in the SE or near the coast instead of offshore. If we have to wait for follow-up northern stream shortwaves to sharpen the trof, the incipient SLP will be too far offshore to have an impact. We're really missing southern stream involvement. This positively tilted, lagging vortmax crap shown on every model is not going to cut it. I think we had an EC run or two a few days ago and a GFS run a day ago that almost worked. But nothing since has really been close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Baby steps. Closer to something much bigger. 4 days to reel er in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Eastern LI and then Cape Cod 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 0z GFS wasn't hopeless. But the midlevel fronto makes it look closer than it is. Hopefully the EC makes a similar shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The CMC is way offshore and not particularly threatening aloft. Not a height field that looks conducive to a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The CMC is way offshore and not particularly threatening aloft. Not a height field that looks conducive to a significant event. It just came west from 12z Looks similar to last storm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It just came west from 12z Looks similar to last storm Why don't you start a storm thread for it ? Has the potential to be a sweetheart of a storm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Why don't you start a storm thread for it ? Has the potential to be a sweetheart of a storm I'm a jinx 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another double barrel storm?? So weird 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Look at the UK at H5. Totally different height field compared to GFS and CMC. It drops a PV lobe down into the midwest. Much higher impact potential. I feel like we've seen the UK have these kinds of southern PV solutions in the mid-range before. It looks like a low likelihood outcome. But for now I'll take any model solution that has a higher ceiling than the weak, positively tilted coastal slider that seems predestined. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The UK snows for 30+ hours. A weenie can dream. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Look at the UK at H5. Totally different height field compared to GFS and CMC. It drops a PV lobe down into the midwest. Much higher impact potential. I feel like we've seen the UK have these kinds of southern PV solutions in the mid-range before. It looks like a low likelihood outcome. But for now I'll take any model solution that has a higher ceiling than the weak, positively tilted coastal slider that seems predestined. Canadian - GFS - Ukie at 0Z all show the potential - now lets see if they continue to do so the next few runs...........Now waiting for the 0Z Euro.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Western Ridge flattens out on the Euro so it's progressive and instead it has two storms neither of which will nail us. But these maps are going to change. This is not the final solution. Flattening of the ridge out west too quickly probably an error. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: I wish you would just post a close up for our region rather than the entire midatlantic and northeast lol these are so hard to read lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 hours ago, bluewave said: We are back to the high temperatures beating guidance as the TPV retreats further NW with the more +AO pattern. February pattern so far January pattern this is a good sign for the next storm right? a strong SE Ridge should make it trend westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 hours ago, CIK62 said: EVEN GIVEN THE FULL 16 DAYS, THE GEFS CAN NOT EVEN GUARANTEE A 1" MIN. FOR US: I mean 70-80 pct is pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put. WX/PT well we have some time-- also I read that the pattern should stay good until PD? So we have until the 21st or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 going to be tough.. I thought switch to +NAO sate during this Winter would give us a coldparallel., Turns out the lagging ENSO is really lagging and we are ridging the Pacific like crazy, it's going to be hard to snow, like 5%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 hours ago, Franklin0529 said: Baby steps. Closer to something much bigger. 4 days to reel er in sure lol went from 1-3 to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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