MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Euro now has the MJO going into 2 when it never showed it before. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 12:30 PM, bluewave said: All the guidance gets us into the 50s on Saturday with the lead wave taking a cutter track. So the SE Ridge may stay stronger for the follow up storm from Sunday into Monday. This could allow the low to creep NW closer to the coast in coming days. Expand Someone is bound to interpret this as an impending coastal rainstorm. Then again, stranger things have happened. For those just catching this snapshot without reading the rest of the thread: the coastal storm follows the weekend lead cutter on guidance, when the cold air is already established early next week, putting a frozen-event on the table. Guidance (as of now) however does not amplify the low to ride north into our latitude, and goes out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 A couple of notes: Bluewave correct.. ridge west coast breaks down far too quick... and has been for a long-long time. I find the EPS depressing but I don't think it's doing too well long range and my confidence in the GEFS maintaining 1045MB highs sliding southeast from northwest Canada is above average into the 24th, which makes it a battleground ball game through at least the 24th out here in our NYC subforum. Of course FEB will be a little warmer than normal overall with a couple of very warm days but regarding nada winter opportunities for 3"+ snow into the last week of the month: I doubt that. You may have noticed the 06z/8 GEFS made a rather healthy increase in modeled snowfall VA northeastward to BOS. There at the least should be a period of snow or ice BOS-RDU-AVL Sunday-early Monday for much of this area. Maybe a snowstorm for a part of this region. Too early to say where in particular but worthy of interest. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 What's the status on arctic stratwarm March 1-14??? From what I could tell in 00z/7 weeklies, still there? Bluewave others? I'll check back tonight. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I am ready for a nice thaw after the prolonged cold. We will snow again, but let's take a break. Ulster County up here especially needs it cleaning out and recovering from the devastating ice storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Euro continues to correct with the mjo. What a fail 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:19 PM, Allsnow said: Euro continues to correct with the mjo. What a fail Expand Latest gefs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:20 PM, MJO812 said: Latest gefs Expand Latest olr not getting to 4 anytime soon 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:21 PM, Franklin0529 said: Gfs looks like shit for valentine's day storm Expand Yup. It’s over. See you next winter 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:21 PM, Allsnow said: Latest olr not getting to 4 anytime soon Expand The eps has been trash with the forcing all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I think we have enough data here atm...to keep things interesting on Sunday Night love the chaotic spaghetti chart let's see 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:22 PM, MJO812 said: The eps has been trash with the forcing all winter. Expand Yet some people continue to hug it likes it's gospel whenever it's shows extended warmth. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Cmc was a miss as well. Northern stream dont wanna play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:59 PM, Franklin0529 said: Cmc was a miss as well. Northern stream dont wanna play Expand The Ukie was a complete miss too as was the GFS and CMC. The 6z EPS was just as bad too. This “threat” is in trouble 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:59 PM, Franklin0529 said: Cmc was a miss as well. Northern stream dont wanna play Expand Not yet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" from the GEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:59 PM, Franklin0529 said: Cmc was a miss as well. Northern stream dont wanna play Expand CMC has a period of snow (T-2") along the front Sunday for us. I start there... CMC has something. Sharpening either this trough or the follower on the 15th and suddenly you have some sort of larger coastal event. I am counting on an inch or 2 of snow Sunday here in nw Nj and I think NYC as well, or Mon-Tue, but preferably Sunday. Weenie me when it's no go on Saturday if and when this is a complete miss. Enjoying these pretty big highs continually showing out of w Canada. When that out there is constantly low pressure, then i know we're consistently torched. I am resisting the persistent unseasonable warmth here until the GEFS goes bye-bye on the W NAM ridge. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 4:59 PM, Franklin0529 said: Cmc was a miss as well. Northern stream dont wanna play Expand A miss with the coastal storm, but CMC did give us a light snowfall sunday morning. About an inch. GFS tried to show a little something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 ICON brings the V-day storm up the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 5:15 PM, wdrag said: CMC has a period of snow (T-2") along the front Sunday for us. I start there... CMC has something. Sharpening either this trough or the follower on the 15th and suddenly you have some sort of larger coastal event. I am counting on an inch or 2 of snow Sunday here in nw Nj and I think NYC as well, or Mon-Tue, but preferably Sunday. Weenie me when it's no go on Saturday if and when this is a complete miss. Enjoying these pretty big highs continually showing out of w Canada. When that out there is constantly low pressure, then i know we're consistently torched. I am resisting the persistent unseasonable warmth here until the GEFS goes bye-bye on the W NAM ridge. Expand Thanks walt. Let's hope for some coastal love 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 To me, at this point, there is a storm off the coast early next week, therefore there is hope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 When Doorman posts charts in a whimsical tone, I know there’s hope. Not looking like tons is needed to make this more exciting. For now cautious optimism is the name of the game. Expectations set at zero but willing to be pleasantly surprised. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 5:04 PM, snowman19 said: The Ukie was a complete miss too as was the GFS and CMC. The 6z EPS was just as bad too. This “threat” is in trouble Expand You say that about every threat. Lay low. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Haha. Switching gears to spoiling the storm threat because all the tweets about the eps being correct have failed 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 8:38 PM, bluewave said: We probably have until around Presidents Day to to try and put some February snow points on the board. All the 12z guidance weakens the +PNA during the last week of February with a strong +AO .So the flow becomes more zonal. It was pretty remarkable to get this +PNA run from the start of January following the most negative December PNA in history. Expand dont these things balance out anyway so wouldn't it be natural for an extreme -PNA to be followed by an extreme +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 1:05 PM, Shades said: Someone is bound to interpret this as an impending coastal rainstorm. Then again, stranger things have happened. For those just catching this snapshot without reading the rest of the thread: the coastal storm follows the weekend lead cutter on guidance, when the cold air is already established early next week, putting a frozen-event on the table. Guidance (as of now) however does not amplify the low to ride north into our latitude, and goes out to sea. Expand so the warmer it gets on Saturday the better the chances for snow Sunday night is the way I see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 lets start a thread for this I will call the crew on here at this moment the lucky 13...you saw it first snowstorm on the way!!! 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 GFS made a pretty significant improvement in the NS... let's see if it's a legit correction 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 here we go...... left lean smell the dendrites 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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