February 2022

[SnoSki14]

It's tough to get that excited for anything without any Atlantic blocking. 

I think we'll score another 5-7" event mid month that will melt 2-3 days later just from the -EPO/+PNA and then hopefully we get some blocking to finish winter. 

However the big dogs are nowhere to be found. 

[rclab]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I always imagined this rare scenario where it is snowing outside my bedroom window but when I go downstairs it is raining.  Or that tree tops are covered in snow but it changes to rain just before reaching ground level.  I wonder if this is possible?

I have heard of one house experiencing a thundershower and the next town over not getting a single drop....the rain has to stop somewhere right?  

Why am I thinking forky would probably be the go to pro for this information. As always ….

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This would really have to blow up as it moves NE. Very unlikely atm but we'll see.

Streams are dragging behind as usual aka the story of the winter

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

but still not a lot of snow in either of those years

 

it had 63 days with a trace of snow on the ground...we have not seen that many days with a trace of snow on the ground since 1995-96...

snow depth days for Newark N.J....trace days are days with a trace on the ground at observation time... if 0.4" or less falls anytime during the day it is also a trace for that day...some streaks had no snow at am obs time but snow fell later in the day...this continued the streak...1", 4", 10", 15" and 20" days were handled the same way...if 1" fell late in the day and 1" was on the ground the next morning it would be considered two 1" days...max depth was estimated in some cases...all months were added in for the seasonal total...

…...……………....Days......………………………….consecutive days...

season...…..T....1"....4"..10"..15"..20"...…..T.....1"....4"..10"..15"..20"..max depth...

1945-46.....38...28...11.....1....0.....0..........13...12.....7.....1.....0.....0...….10"

1946-47.....49...29...12.....2....0.....0...…...14...14.....6.....2.....0.....0...….11"

1947-48.....72...63...49...14....6.....2...…..60...57...30.....8.....6.....2......26"

1948-49.....35...26.....9.....3....0.....0...…...11...11.....4.....3.....0.....0........13"

1949-50.....16......7.....0.....0....0.....0...…….3.....2.....0.....0.....0.....0....…..3"

 

1950-51.....28...11.....0.....0....0.....0...…...14.....5.....0.....0.....0.....0....…..3"

1951-52.....23...14.....3.....0....0.....0...…….7.....6.....1.....0.....0.....0...…...5"

1952-53.....19...10.....1.....0....0.....0...……..4.....3.....1.....0.....0.....0...…...5"
1953-54.....23...15.....9.....0....0.....0...…...17...12.....9.....0.....0.....0....…..8".

1954-55.....25...19.....1.....0....0.....0......…..6.....6.....1.....0.....0.....0....…..4"

1955-56.....35...21.....7.....3....2.....1...…...11.....9.....7.....3.....2.....1...….20"

1956-57.....32...19.....4.....0....0.....0...…….7.....6.....2.....0.....0.....0...…...8"

1957-58.....53...40...19.....4....0.....0...…...14...11.....8.....2.....0.....0...….13"

1958-59.....37...25.....2.....0....0.....0...…...12.....8.....1.....0.....0.....0..…...5"

1959-60.....50...31...10.....4....0.....0...…...17...11.....9.....4.....0.....0.......14"

 

1960-61.....68...60...40...23.....8.....4...……36...32...29...11....4....3...….26"

1961-62.....47...32.....7.....1....0.....0...…...15...13.....5.....1....0.....0.......10"

1962-63.....63...27.....9.....0....0.....0...…...20...12.....8.....0....0.....0...…..6"

1963-64.....69...47...14.....4....0.....0..........26...17.....7.....4....0.....0.......13"

1964-65.....55...40.....8.....0....0.....0..........28...28.....5.....0....0.....0.........8"

1965-66.....32...24.....9.....0....0.....0..........23...19.....9.....0....0.....0.........9"

1966-67.....57...44...21.....5....1.....0..........16...11...10.....5....1.....0.......15"

1967-68.....37...21.....6.....0....0.....0..........22...15.....6.....0....0.....0.........4"

1968-69.....48...34...13.....4....0.....0..........20...20...13.....4....0.....0.......14"

1969-70.....71...51...25.....0....0.....0..........40...29...11.....0....0.....0.........6"

 

1970-71.....55...27.....6.....0....0.....0..........22.....9.....4.....0....0.....0.........7"

1971-72.....42...23.....2.....0....0.....0..........12.....8.....2.....0....0.....0.........4"

1972-73.....12.....3.....0.....0....0.....0............3.....1.....0.....0....0.....0.........1"

1973-74.....44...31.....8.....0....0.....0..........18...11.....5.....0....0.....0.........5"

1974-75.....28...12.....4.....0....0.....0............7.....6.....4.....0....0.....0.........9"

1975-76.....32...27.....8.....0....0.....0..........10.....9.....3.....0....0.....0.........4"

1976-77.....61...43...14.....0....0.....0..........51...16.....7.....0....0.....0.........5"

1977-78.....82...54...32...13....5.....0..........71...33...16.....7....4.....0.......19"

1978-79.....39...27...14.....3....3.....0..........22...18.....5.....3....3.....0.......19"

1979-80.....27...15.....4.....0....0.....0............8.....4.....3.....0....0.....0.........5"

 

1980-81.....41...29.....4.....0....0.....0..........21...18.....3.....0....0.....0.........9"

1981-82.....41...29...21.....2....0.....0..........20...19...18.....2....0.....0.......12"

1982-83.....33...24...11.....4....3.....0..........16...14...11.....4....3.....0.......19"

1983-84.....53...33...13.....0....0.....0..........23...18.....8.....0....0.....0.........8"

1984-85.....42...28.....9.....0....0.....0..........34...12.....7.....0....0.....0.........6"

1985-86.....37...24...11.....0....0.....0..........13...12...11.....0....0.....0.........8"

1986-87.....48...33...14.....8....0.....0..........20...18...11.....8....0.....0.......14"

1987-88.....41...34...11.....0....0.....0..........17...16...10.....0....0.....0.........9"

1988-89.....15.....7.....2.....0....0.....0............5.....4.....2.....0....0.....0.........4"

1989-90.....28.....9.....2.....0....0.....0............5.....3.....2.....0....0.....0.........6"

 

1990-91.....28...18.....5.....0....0.....0............9.....6.....2.....0....0.....0.........8"

1991-92.....19...11.....5.....0....0.....0............9.....7.....5.....0....0.....0.........7"

1992-93.....32...26...10.....4....0.....0..........11...10.....8.....4....0.....0.......13"

1993-94.....79...57...24.....9....5.....0..........69...28...13.....8....5.....0.......18"

1994-95.....16.....9.....7.....0....0.....0..........14.....8.....7.....0....0.....0.........9"

1995-96.....75...60...32.....9....7.....6..........32...32...13.....8....7.....6.......31"

1996-97.....25...11.....1.....0....0.....0............5.....2.....1.....0....0.....0.........4"

1997-98.....13.....3.....0.....0....0.....0............3.....1.....0.....0....0.....0.........3"

1998-99.....19...12.....1.....0....0.....0............4.....2.....1.....0....0.....0.........5"

1999-00.....28...24.....9.....0....0.....0..........22...16.....4.....0....0.....0.........7"

 

2000-01.....44...30...20.....3....0.....0..........18...16...13.....3....0.....0.......14"

2001-02.......6.....4.....0.....0....0.....0............6.....4.....0.....0....0.....0.........3"

2002-03.....60...44...18.....6....4.....2..........24...23.....8.....6....4.....2.......23"

2003-04.....39...34...22.....4....1.....0..........24...22.....8.....4....1.....0.......16"

2004-05.....50...40...24.....3....0.....0..........21...18...15.....3....0.....0.......11"

2005-06.....30...21...10.....3....1.....1..........13.....7.....5.....3....1.....1.......20" est.

2006-07.....29...22.....1.....0....0.....0............9.....7.....1.....0....0.....0.........6"

2007-08.....19...11.....2.....0....0.....0............5.....4.....2.....0....0.....0.........7"

2008-09.....40...33.....6.....0....0.....0..........17.....7.....4.....0....0.....0.........7"

2009-10.....36...28...20.....3....0.....0..........12...11...10.....2....0.....0.......13"

 

2010-11.....58...54...37...18...12....4..........51...39...21...12....8.....2.......24"

2011-12.......6.....5.....1.....0....0.....0............3.....3.....1.....0....0.....0.........5"

2012-13.....24...16.....7.....1....0.....0............5.....5.....4.....1....0.....0.......10" est.

2013-14.....56...48...33...12....7.....0..........37...22...21.....9....7.....0.......18"

2014-15.....58...55...44.....1....0.....0..........45...45...42.....1....0.....0.......10" est.

2015-16.....29...18...10.....6....4.....2..........13...11...10.....6....4.....2.......24"

2016-17.....31...27.....9.....0....0.....0..........11.....7.....4.....0....0.....0.........8"

2017-18.....32...29...12.....0....0.....0............8.....8.....6.....0....0.....0.........8"

2018-19.....23...10.....4.....0....0.....0............9.....4.....3.....0....0.....0.........6"

2019-20.....10.....7.....0.....0....0.....0............3.....2.....0.....0....0.....0........2"

2020-21.....41...32...25...15...2.....0..........25...24...16...14....2.....0........17"

2021-22.....15....10.....7.....0....0.....0............6.....6.....5.....0.....0.....0........8" as of 2/2

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, uncle W said:

it had 63 days with a trace of snow on the ground...we have not seen that many days with a trace of snow on the ground since 1995-96...

snow depth days for Newark N.J....trace days are days with a trace on the ground at observation time... if 0.4" or less falls anytime during the day it is also a trace for that day...some streaks had no snow at am obs time but snow fell later in the day...this continued the streak...1", 4", 10", 15" and 20" days were handled the same way...if 1" fell late in the day and 1" was on the ground the next morning it would be considered two 1" days...max depth was estimated in some cases...all months were added in for the seasonal total...

…...……………....Days......………………………….consecutive days...

season...…..T....1"....4"..10"..15"..20"...…..T.....1"....4"..10"..15"..20"..max depth...

1945-46.....38...28...11.....1....0.....0..........13...12.....7.....1.....0.....0...….10"

1946-47.....49...29...12.....2....0.....0...…...14...14.....6.....2.....0.....0...….11"

1947-48.....72...63...49...14....6.....2...…..60...57...30.....8.....6.....2......26"

1948-49.....35...26.....9.....3....0.....0...…...11...11.....4.....3.....0.....0........13"

1949-50.....16......7.....0.....0....0.....0...…….3.....2.....0.....0.....0.....0....…..3"

 

1950-51.....28...11.....0.....0....0.....0...…...14.....5.....0.....0.....0.....0....…..3"

1951-52.....23...14.....3.....0....0.....0...…….7.....6.....1.....0.....0.....0...…...5"

1952-53.....19...10.....1.....0....0.....0...……..4.....3.....1.....0.....0.....0...…...5"
1953-54.....23...15.....9.....0....0.....0...…...17...12.....9.....0.....0.....0....…..8".

1954-55.....25...19.....1.....0....0.....0......…..6.....6.....1.....0.....0.....0....…..4"

1955-56.....35...21.....7.....3....2.....1...…...11.....9.....7.....3.....2.....1...….20"

1956-57.....32...19.....4.....0....0.....0...…….7.....6.....2.....0.....0.....0...…...8"

1957-58.....53...40...19.....4....0.....0...…...14...11.....8.....2.....0.....0...….13"

1958-59.....37...25.....2.....0....0.....0...…...12.....8.....1.....0.....0.....0..…...5"

1959-60.....50...31...10.....4....0.....0...…...17...11.....9.....4.....0.....0.......14"

 

1960-61.....68...60...40...23.....8.....4...……36...32...29...11....4....3...….26"

1961-62.....47...32.....7.....1....0.....0...…...15...13.....5.....1....0.....0.......10"

1962-63.....63...27.....9.....0....0.....0...…...20...12.....8.....0....0.....0...…..6"

1963-64.....69...47...14.....4....0.....0..........26...17.....7.....4....0.....0.......13"

1964-65.....55...40.....8.....0....0.....0..........28...28.....5.....0....0.....0.........8"

1965-66.....32...24.....9.....0....0.....0..........23...19.....9.....0....0.....0.........9"

1966-67.....57...44...21.....5....1.....0..........16...11...10.....5....1.....0.......15"

1967-68.....37...21.....6.....0....0.....0..........22...15.....6.....0....0.....0.........4"

1968-69.....48...34...13.....4....0.....0..........20...20...13.....4....0.....0.......14"

1969-70.....71...51...25.....0....0.....0..........40...29...11.....0....0.....0.........6"

 

1970-71.....55...27.....6.....0....0.....0..........22.....9.....4.....0....0.....0.........7"

1971-72.....42...23.....2.....0....0.....0..........12.....8.....2.....0....0.....0.........4"

1972-73.....12.....3.....0.....0....0.....0............3.....1.....0.....0....0.....0.........1"

1973-74.....44...31.....8.....0....0.....0..........18...11.....5.....0....0.....0.........5"

1974-75.....28...12.....4.....0....0.....0............7.....6.....4.....0....0.....0.........9"

1975-76.....32...27.....8.....0....0.....0..........10.....9.....3.....0....0.....0.........4"

1976-77.....61...43...14.....0....0.....0..........51...16.....7.....0....0.....0.........5"

1977-78.....82...54...32...13....5.....0..........71...33...16.....7....4.....0.......19"

1978-79.....39...27...14.....3....3.....0..........22...18.....5.....3....3.....0.......19"

1979-80.....27...15.....4.....0....0.....0............8.....4.....3.....0....0.....0.........5"

 

1980-81.....41...29.....4.....0....0.....0..........21...18.....3.....0....0.....0.........9"

1981-82.....41...29...21.....2....0.....0..........20...19...18.....2....0.....0.......12"

1982-83.....33...24...11.....4....3.....0..........16...14...11.....4....3.....0.......19"

1983-84.....53...33...13.....0....0.....0..........23...18.....8.....0....0.....0.........8"

1984-85.....42...28.....9.....0....0.....0..........34...12.....7.....0....0.....0.........6"

1985-86.....37...24...11.....0....0.....0..........13...12...11.....0....0.....0.........8"

1986-87.....48...33...14.....8....0.....0..........20...18...11.....8....0.....0.......14"

1987-88.....41...34...11.....0....0.....0..........17...16...10.....0....0.....0.........9"

1988-89.....15.....7.....2.....0....0.....0............5.....4.....2.....0....0.....0.........4"

1989-90.....28.....9.....2.....0....0.....0............5.....3.....2.....0....0.....0.........6"

 

1990-91.....28...18.....5.....0....0.....0............9.....6.....2.....0....0.....0.........8"

1991-92.....19...11.....5.....0....0.....0............9.....7.....5.....0....0.....0.........7"

1992-93.....32...26...10.....4....0.....0..........11...10.....8.....4....0.....0.......13"

1993-94.....79...57...24.....9....5.....0..........69...28...13.....8....5.....0.......18"

1994-95.....16.....9.....7.....0....0.....0..........14.....8.....7.....0....0.....0.........9"

1995-96.....75...60...32.....9....7.....6..........32...32...13.....8....7.....6.......31"

1996-97.....25...11.....1.....0....0.....0............5.....2.....1.....0....0.....0.........4"

1997-98.....13.....3.....0.....0....0.....0............3.....1.....0.....0....0.....0.........3"

1998-99.....19...12.....1.....0....0.....0............4.....2.....1.....0....0.....0.........5"

1999-00.....28...24.....9.....0....0.....0..........22...16.....4.....0....0.....0.........7"

 

2000-01.....44...30...20.....3....0.....0..........18...16...13.....3....0.....0.......14"

2001-02.......6.....4.....0.....0....0.....0............6.....4.....0.....0....0.....0.........3"

2002-03.....60...44...18.....6....4.....2..........24...23.....8.....6....4.....2.......23"

2003-04.....39...34...22.....4....1.....0..........24...22.....8.....4....1.....0.......16"

2004-05.....50...40...24.....3....0.....0..........21...18...15.....3....0.....0.......11"

2005-06.....30...21...10.....3....1.....1..........13.....7.....5.....3....1.....1.......20" est.

2006-07.....29...22.....1.....0....0.....0............9.....7.....1.....0....0.....0.........6"

2007-08.....19...11.....2.....0....0.....0............5.....4.....2.....0....0.....0.........7"

2008-09.....40...33.....6.....0....0.....0..........17.....7.....4.....0....0.....0.........7"

2009-10.....36...28...20.....3....0.....0..........12...11...10.....2....0.....0.......13"

 

2010-11.....58...54...37...18...12....4..........51...39...21...12....8.....2.......24"

2011-12.......6.....5.....1.....0....0.....0............3.....3.....1.....0....0.....0.........5"

2012-13.....24...16.....7.....1....0.....0............5.....5.....4.....1....0.....0.......10" est.

2013-14.....56...48...33...12....7.....0..........37...22...21.....9....7.....0.......18"

2014-15.....58...55...44.....1....0.....0..........45...45...42.....1....0.....0.......10" est.

2015-16.....29...18...10.....6....4.....2..........13...11...10.....6....4.....2.......24"

2016-17.....31...27.....9.....0....0.....0..........11.....7.....4.....0....0.....0.........8"

2017-18.....32...29...12.....0....0.....0............8.....8.....6.....0....0.....0.........8"

2018-19.....23...10.....4.....0....0.....0............9.....4.....3.....0....0.....0.........6"

2019-20.....10.....7.....0.....0....0.....0............3.....2.....0.....0....0.....0........2"

2020-21.....41...32...25...15...2.....0..........25...24...16...14....2.....0........17"

2021-22.....15....10.....7.....0....0.....0............6.....6.....5.....0.....0.....0........8" as of 2/2

so total snowfall amt not that much but frequent small storms and lots of cold to keep it sticking around ?  68-69 did have the one big storm that dropped 20" at JFK and LGA.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Meanwhile, this has been trending a little closer, although in baby steps.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2022020418&fh=66

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2022020412&fh=90

some nice changes

 

[Franklin0529]

That Tuesday event is getting better an better, not far off from something decent 

[Greg g]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

That Tuesday event is getting better an better, not far off from something decent 

Still too far out to sea??

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Greg g said:

Still too far out to sea??

As of now yes,  but at h5 past couple runs been much better, eps an gefs were both closer to the coast 

[Greg g]

Tough to see if there is high pressure up to the north.. is it going to be cold enough?

[Franklin0529]

Another tic better on the gfs for Tuesday,  h5 looked markedly better also. Maybe we can thread the needle.  Certainly not far off

[Greg g]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Another tic better on the gfs for Tuesday,  h5 looked markedly better also. Maybe we can thread the needle.  Certainly not far off

What would be the timing early Tuesday or late Tuesday 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

What would be the timing early Tuesday or late Tuesday 

It's a nothing burger right now

[Greg g]

Figured but was just asking that’s all

[Santa Claus]

whenever i feel like the next month is hopeless for interesting weather i just remind myself that the weather usually looked the same kind of uninteresting and hopeless the week before some kind of historic NE tornado outbreak or 6" sleetstorm

just hang on

nature will deliver us from evil soon enough

[Franklin0529]

Cmc looks better also for Tuesday.  I'll be paying attention to this one.  Does anyone got the gefs? 

[Franklin0529]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a nothing burger right now

U got the gefs? Cmc looks better also. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

U got the gefs? Cmc looks better also. 

Worse than 18z

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Worse than 18z

Ok

[SnowGoose69]

The air mass is way too mild and the pattern does not really support anything to be deep/slow moving enough to manufacture its cold air...this would probably be mostly rain or white rain even if you did have a 980 something low inside the BM because it would just be too fast moving 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The air mass is way too mild and the pattern does not really support anything to be deep/slow moving enough to manufacture its cold air...this would probably be mostly rain or white rain even if you did have a 980 something low inside the BM because it would just be too fast moving 

Agree 100%, it’s a non threat….horrible, mild boundary layer airmass, very fast flow, positively tilted junk

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

We got lucky that the impressive SPV never really coupled with the lower atmosphere. Plus we had the strong +PNA and -EPO to compensate. So even if there is a reversal like weeklies have, it’s uncertain how much would propagate down to the troposphere.

 

 

If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO  

 

[the_other_guy]

This upcoming week looks warm… You can write that off.

After that, 4 weeks to go

Now every week we lose you start picking off time.

Frankly if it all ended tomorrow, most of us got a nice taste of winter with the cold and some scattered snow events

This Ice Event north and west yesterday saved what Would have been a boring cold rain.

20F at moment with a dangerous layer of ice on everything in Hastings

I salted the hell out of the driveway last night but I still left the car on the street because I had no faith that I was going to be able to stop it before I hit the garage

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(26/37), or -2.      Could get the to the  60's by the  17th.-19th.  period.

EURO says at that time the AO will be +6, the NAO +4, EPO +3, PNA -3, and the WPO just a bit +.    So Read'em and Weep.

There is no  10-Day snow showing to speak of.

Reached 56 here yesterday AM before quick drop.

Today: 28-31, wind nw. and breezy till sunset, clouds clearing early, 18 by tomorrow AM.

25*(63%RH) here at 6am.      24* at 6:30am.      23* at 7:30am.        27* at Noon.      Reached 29* at 3pm.

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this is correct, there will be a record breaking strong SPV come the end of this month. This is the reason for the severely positive NAM period coming up, ++NAO, ++AO. Also looks like the IO forcing/MJO ph 3-4 in the long term is real, which is going to force a big change in the PAC, the EPS is nose diving the PNA and losing the -EPO  

The EPS has more of a -PNA look near the end of the 0z run. But the GEPS and GEFS not as much.  The big story this winter was the historic PNA rise from December to January. It was the greatest on record from December to January. So even if the +PNA weakens or reverses in late February, the February PNA reading won’t be anything like December was. So in two consecutive La Niña winters, this December will be the only severe -PNA out of 6 winter months. The December PNA was a record breaking -2.56 and January jumped to +1.01.

 

 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has more of a -PNA look near the end of the 0z run. But the GEPS and GEFS not as much.  The big story this winter was the historic PNA rise from December to January. It was the greatest on record from December to January. So even if the +PNA weakens or reverses in late February, the February PNA reading won’t be anything like December was. So in two consecutive La Niña winters, this December will be the only severe -PNA out of 6 winter months. The December PNA was a record breaking -2.56 and January jumped to +1.01.

 

 

EPS had a select few members getting a little crazy around Indonesia very late. Here's one example of that below. I suspect this is overdone, but will have to watch. More of some sort of split forcing looks on many others. This is when I'm uncomfortable, until gefs and eps are on the same page. Wondering if it has something to do with the tropical systems in the IO and how they're ultimately treated. Not sure. Tricky timeframe for now. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny but cold. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 29°

Newark: 29°

Philadelphia: 33°

After another cold day tomorrow, temperatures will moderate. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.4°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.3°

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

EPS had a select few members getting a little crazy around Indonesia very late. Here's one example of that below. I suspect this is overdone, but will have to watch. More of some sort of split forcing looks on many others. This is when I'm uncomfortable, until gefs and eps are on the same page. Wondering if it has something to do with the tropical systems in the IO and how they're ultimately treated. Not sure. Tricky timeframe for now. 

Yeah, you can see the competing influences of the IO and PAC tropical forcing so far this month. We finally made it into the 50s yesterday for the first time in a month. So the extended cold pattern of January is beginning to shift to more of a back and forth temperature regime. Colder this weekend before we go back into the 40s next week. Then another cool down mid-February. The big question Is what happens in late February. It will all come down to where the forcing consolidates. If the IO forcing takes over, then it could get quite warm as the SE Ridge would be favored. But if the forcing can linger from the WPAC to CP, then a continuation of the back and forth temperature pattern.

 

 

 

[MJO812]