February 2022

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

19's weenie tag in 3....2.....1...... 

I'm going to message Randy about him

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

I am so lucky .  Hey 19, did a snow loving weenie beat you up or bully you in school?  Or someone put snow in your underwear? You've got some revenge agenda goin on here.... 

according to Ray in the NE forum (he does it there too) he was dropped on his head in the snow a few too many times

 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But JFK almost always gets less than half the snowfall than the jackpot, no matter the situation.  My main point being this.... NYC was never going to get 25 inches of snow.  It's in a central location and jackpots are usually to the west or to the east or to the south.  Look at what ACY got in January.... 33 inches.  Now are we to assume that locations further south do better in a positive NAO?  Of course not!  And we had a negative NAO in December and all it got us was 0.3.  A negative NAO is much less important for us than a west coast ridge, we need that above all else.  We can't hope for perfection-- it's very rare that everything will line up perfectly, and quite frankly if there is one thing I had to pick wouldn't line up it's a negative NAO.  We've had historic snowfall seasons and historic snowstorms without one (PD2 and 1993-94 and 1960-61 being cases in point.)  And look how well ACY did in a positive NAO in January.  We can't root or hope for perfection, because it rarely happens.  I also question the value of the nao when we have south based blocks and east based blocks that do diddly for us.  So rather than chasing ghosts, I'd rather have the sure thing-- which is a great Pacific.  Everything else matters FAR less than that.

Also, I choose not to compare JFK to ISP, because JFK would never get that kind of snowfall in any scenario unless we had a strong el nino.  I choose to compare JFK against its own historical record....and for JFK getting over a foot of pure snow is an MECS.  It was a great storm.  Anyone from Brooklyn on east and south had a great storm and has absolutely nothing to complain or whine about.

It’s much easier for the jackpot to be closer to NYC when there is -AO or -NAO. LGA had some of the highest totals with the January 7th event near the tail end of the December -AO pattern. All last winter the jackpots were closer to NYC with the -AO. The snowfall totals were more equitably distributed in the January 2016 event with 30” extending into Queens and the -AO. The Boxing Day blizzard jackpotted around Newark in 2011 with the record -AO. Newark needed the -AO for the 60” in 33 days that winter. NYC got the heaviest totals over 25” with the February 2006 -AO event. The +PNA opens the door to heavy snows, but the -AO or -NAO is needed for NYC to get the heaviest totals relative to the other areas. NYC can get a 50” on the season like 14-15 with just a +PNA and -EPO block. But NYC hasn’t made it to 75” like 95-96 without the -NAO that  we had that season. So while NYC can have nice to great snowfall outcomes just on the Pacific blocking, the -AO and -NAO is needed for greatness like a 95-96 in NYC. 
 

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s much easier for the jackpot to be closer to NYC when there is -AO or -NAO. LGA had some of the highest totals with the January 7th event near the tail end of the December -AO pattern. All last winter the jackpots were closer to NYC with the -AO. The snowfall totals were more equitably distributed in the January 2016 event with 30” extending into Queens and the -AO. The Boxing Day blizzard jackpotted around Newark in 2011 with the record -AO. Newark needed the -AO for the 60” in 33 days that winter. NYC got the heaviest totals over 25” with the February 2006 -AO event. The +PNA opens the door to heavy snows, but the -AO or -NAO is needed for NYC to get the heaviest totals relative to the other areas. NYC can get a 50” on the season like 14-15 with just a +PNA and -EPO block. But NYC hasn’t made it to 75” like 95-96 without the -NAO that  we had that season. So while NYC can have nice to great snowfall outcomes just on the Pacific blocking, the -AO and -NAO is needed for greatness like a 95-96 in NYC. 
 

dec 1960 was able to pull it off. it had a south based atlantic blocking pattern to help the coastal storm tuck in

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s much easier for the jackpot to be closer to NYC when there is -AO or -NAO. LGA had some of the highest totals with the January 7th event near the tail end of the December -AO pattern. All last winter the jackpots were closer to NYC with the -AO. The snowfall totals were more equitably distributed in the January 2016 event with 30” extending into Queens and the -AO. The Boxing Day blizzard jackpotted around Newark in 2011 with the record -AO. Newark needed the -AO for the 60” in 33 days that winter. NYC got the heaviest totals over 25” with the February 2006 -AO event. The +PNA opens the door to heavy snows, but the -AO or -NAO is needed for NYC to get the heaviest totals relative to the other areas. NYC can get a 50” on the season like 14-15 with just a +PNA and -EPO block. But NYC hasn’t made it to 75” like 95-96 without the -NAO that  we had that season. So while NYC can have nice to great snowfall outcomes just on the Pacific blocking, the -AO and -NAO is needed for greatness like a 95-96 in NYC. 
 

But that did diddly for us on the south shore because at JFK and here that "big storm" last Groundhog Day had less snow than this and was a mixed precip storm, I'd rather have all snow pure snow even at the same or somewhat lesser amount (and this one was bigger than anything we had last year here.)

How do you compare this to 1993-94 when NYC had over 50 inches without a neg NAO or PD2 where we didn't have a neg nao either, I believe 2002-03 and 1960-61 both averaged out with a slightly positive NAO?  Was 2014-15 another positive or neutral NAO winter?  What about 2013-14? Why did we have so much mixing that winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

dec 1960 was able to pull it off. it had a south based atlantic blocking pattern to help the coastal storm tuck in

wow nice, the three winters I was looking at were 1960-61, 1993-94 and 2002-03

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How do you compare this to 1993-94 when NYC had over 50 inches without a neg NAO or PD2 where we didn't have a neg nao either, I believe 2002-03 and 1960-61 both averaged out with a slightly positive NAO?

 

The -AO block in 93-94 was one of the strongest on record near the pole. That’s why the winter was so cold and snowy with the TPV locking in near Hudson Bay. 02-03 had a -AO from December through January. So the 50/50 low remained stuck in place for PD2 even though it was weeks after the -AO faded. 
 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -AO block in 93-94 was one of the strongest on record near the pole. That’s why the winter was so cold and snowy with the TPV locking in near Hudson Bay. 02-03 had a -AO from December through January. So the 50/50 low remained stuck in place for PD2 even though it was weeks after the -AO faded. 
 

were those patterns where the AO was negative and the NAO was positive?

Didn't this storm also have a slightly negative AO and a positive NAO?

 

[donsutherland1]

At 5 pm, it was snowing in Buffalo and Syracuse. Light freezing rain was falling in Binghamton. Rain was falling in Albany.

Tonight into tomorrow, colder air will press southward, producing a changeover to freezing rain, sleet, and some snow north and west of New York City and later perhaps into Newark and New Jersey before ending. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are at the greatest risk of seeing significant icing. A cold but dry weekend will follow.

Next week will see temperatures turn milder for a time before more cold air arrives. However, the recent back-and-forth between below and above normal temperatures suggests that a transition is perhaps getting underway.

There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change with both the GEFS and EPS beginning to move into better consensus. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. There remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of such a possible pattern change.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.700.

On February 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.399 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.500 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 5 pm, it was snowing in Buffalo and Syracuse. Light freezing rain was falling in Binghamton. Rain was falling in Albany.

Tonight into tomorrow, colder air will press southward, producing a changeover to freezing rain, sleet, and some snow north and west of New York City and later perhaps into Newark and New Jersey before ending. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are at the greatest risk of seeing significant icing. A cold but dry weekend will follow.

Next week will see temperatures turn milder for a time before more cold air arrives. However, the recent back-and-forth between below and above normal temperatures suggests that a transition is perhaps getting underway.

There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change with both the GEFS and EPS beginning to move into better consensus. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. There remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of such a possible pattern change.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.700.

On February 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.399 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.500 (RMM).

 

2 questions, Don--

1) I realize you said there is uncertainty but can the timeframe for a pattern change be ironed down to within a 5 day period (say between February 15-20)?

2) What are the chances of a big wintry storm before the pattern changes?  Could it occur in the PD timeframe or would it have to be a little before that? We are in our climo best period for historic snowstorms (starts around Feb 5th and ends around Feb 20th).

 

[EastonSN+]

This would hurt 

[EastonSN+]

That GFS run got me real angry.

Cold dry warm wet.

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That GFS run got me real angry.

Cold dry warm wet.

just one more run.

is that supposed to be the pattern change storm?

the luxury of having two homes is I'm going to be in the Poconos that entire week, so one way or other I'll have a lot of snow lol. I'm going there 2/11 and staying all week.

 

 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That GFS run got me real angry.

Cold dry warm wet.

Op runs will do that 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Op runs will do that 

you know rainboy19 is laughing at you guys right lol

 

[Dark Star]

I am tiring about the terms “banding” and “dry air preventing precipitation”, related to snowstorms. 

For instance, when it comes down to nowcasting time, a lot of members post, “We won’t know where the heaviest snow will fall, it all depends upon where the banding sets up”.  Most storms follow a gradient pattern.  Meaning that the heaviest snowfall is where the greatest lift of the storm is, normally associated with the center of the low pressure system (though not necessarily the center itself).  Most storm have waves of heavier precipitation, normally originating from the center of the storm.  These have become known as bands, but are normal functions of a storm.  When people post “it depends on where the banding sets up” seems pointless.  There are bands moving throughout the entire precipitation area.  Some heavier than others.  Again, most times the heavier bands are closer to the center of the lift (which is normally related to the center of the low). We watch the models and their output in advance of the storm.  We track and formulate where the heaviest precipitation will fall.  It has nothing to do with banding!  Exceptions to this is when you have a deformation zone that sets up.  Usually this is a warm front or other synoptic parameter causing additional lift within a storm.  It is there where you can get intense “banding”, other than the normal lift that occurs with the low pressure system itself.  Then there are the unusual snowstorms, like one that occurred several years ago.  It did not follow a typical gradient pattern, and snowfall amounts were erratic throughout the storm’s path.  Then Sam Champion began forecasting the same type of result with the very next snowstorm.  There was no merit to his assumption.  Instead, the storm followed a typical gradient pattern of snowfall.  The heaviest snow depths occurred closer to the center of the storm. 

There is also a misuse of blaming “dry air” for lack of snowfall in a particular area.  While this is true in some situations, like during snow caused by warm air advection (over running).  The snow moves into dry air and “dries up”, never reaching the ground.  However, the term “dry air” was used in the January 29, 2022 storm. Someone posted that dry air was preventing heavier precipitation amounts from falling in the western suburbs.  This storm had a tight gradient.  The heavier snowfalls were much closer to the center of lift than other storms.  Had the center of the low pressure been 50 miles farther west, the precipitation would have been correspondingly heavier in those western suburbs, and the “dry air” would also be 50 miles further west. 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2 questions, Don--

1) I realize you said there is uncertainty but can the timeframe for a pattern change be ironed down to within a 5 day period (say between February 15-20)?

2) What are the chances of a big wintry storm before the pattern changes?  Could it occur in the PD timeframe or would it have to be a little before that? We are in our climo best period for historic snowstorms (starts around Feb 5th and ends around Feb 20th).

 

On the first issue the guidance seems to be converging in the 17th or 18th, but that’s still 2 weeks away. 

Big pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by storms. Some individual ensemble members show a storm, but there’s very little agreement among them right now.

[donsutherland1]

With a temperature of 51 at 11 pm, New York City has reached 50 for the first time since January 2nd when the temperature topped out at 59.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.37" of rain so far today.

Current temp 44

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a temperature of 51 at 11 pm, New York City has reached 50 for the first time since January 2nd when the temperature topped out at 59.

Don what are the longest time periods we've gone without a high of 50? Sounds like this streak was 30 days plus (more than one full month).

 

[justinj]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

just one more run.

is that supposed to be the pattern change storm?

the luxury of having two homes is I'm going to be in the Poconos that entire week, so one way or other I'll have a lot of snow lol. I'm going there 2/11 and staying all week.

 

 

Where in the poconos? Parents had a place in lake Ariel. Nice up there

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 5 pm, it was snowing in Buffalo and Syracuse. Light freezing rain was falling in Binghamton. Rain was falling in Albany.

Tonight into tomorrow, colder air will press southward, producing a changeover to freezing rain, sleet, and some snow north and west of New York City and later perhaps into Newark and New Jersey before ending. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are at the greatest risk of seeing significant icing. A cold but dry weekend will follow.

Next week will see temperatures turn milder for a time before more cold air arrives. However, the recent back-and-forth between below and above normal temperatures suggests that a transition is perhaps getting underway.

There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change with both the GEFS and EPS beginning to move into better consensus. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. There remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of such a possible pattern change.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.700.

On February 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.399 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.500 (RMM).

 

Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  32degs.(26/37) or -2.

Reached 50 here yesterday at midnight----44/45 most of the day.

Today:  Falling T's to 32 by 7pm---just as precip is stopping, wind w. to n. and breezy later, 21 by tomorrow AM.

No snow till the 13th, if then it seems. 

Sidelight:    Smoke from 10-60 Gas Explosion and resulting fire at 67, 69, 71 Bay 35th. St., Brooklyn--- hung low over area to the east and north of fire, mixing with the low clouds.    No 10-45's Code 1---, occupants of original fire building not home---fire suspicious.    Started 7:08am, mostly over now, 8:30am.

56*!(99%RH) here at 6am.  29.82".     51* at 8am.    42* at 8:30am and dropping faster than the Stock Market-----JP would commit suicide it this occurs on his watch!     41*   29.88"^ at 9am.     40* at Noon.        36* at 1pm.     34* at 6pm.     32* at 8pm, Finally.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what are the longest time periods we've gone without a high of 50? Sounds like this streak was 30 days plus (more than one full month).

 

90 days is the record in NYC.  But we recently made it above 50 days in 2015. Before that it was 1977.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	90	1881-02-10
2	77	1969-03-15
3	74	1910-02-26
-	74	1877-01-31
4	69	1905-03-17
5	68	1885-03-26
6	65	1977-02-10
7	63	2015-03-08
8	62	1941-03-02
9	59	1948-02-13
-	59	1883-02-03
10	54	1971-02-11
11	53	1889-03-11
-	53	1884-02-05
12	52	1916-03-24
-	52	1895-02-28
13	51	1907-03-12
-	51	1873-01-15
14	50	1981-02-01
-	50	1927-01-18

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Light rain will turn to freezing rain as the temperature plunges this morning. Temperatures will fall from the 50s and 40s into the lower 30s and then 20s in most of the region. Likely daytime high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 57°

A cold weekend lies ahead. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.3°; 15-Year: 40.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.1°

[bluewave]

We are entering a big temperature swings pattern. An earlier high of 57 in NYC is quickly dropping. Cold returns for the weekend before another warm up next week. Then this is followed by another cool down in mid-February. 
 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what are the longest time periods we've gone without a high of 50? Sounds like this streak was 30 days plus (more than one full month).

 

JFK: 78 days (12/22/1962-3/9/1963 and 12/29/1968-3/16/1969)

LGA: 78 days (12/29/1968-3/16/1969)

NYC: 90 days (11/13/1880-2/10/1881)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March

The CFSv2 also shows the pattern change with much above normal temperatures during the closing week of February.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 also shows the pattern change with much above normal temperatures during the closing week of February.

Snowman is lying

The pattern will change but not just yet