cleetussnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Long range models suggested a warm up in Feb, but that seems to have muted. Whats next? This looks good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive. Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary. And if it is a cutter those who got very little snow yesterday will be vindicated somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 0z UKIE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive. Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary. Definitely bears watching. GFS and CMC are mostly rain but Euro and Ukie are both colder and have significant snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 My guess is that the wave break caused by the blizzard shifted the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere in early February. Older runs before the models caught on to how strong the storm would be had a -PNA pattern. Now this has flipped to more of a +PNA with Arctic high pressure becoming a player. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 How did 0Z Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looks like an Eye ''Tme sens'' https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-ca_reg_east-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: My guess is that the wave break caused by the blizzard shifted the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere in early February. Older runs before the models caught on to how strong the storm would be had a -PNA pattern. Now this has flipped to more of a +PNA with Arctic high pressure becoming a player. Pretty stark difference between the GEFS and EPS at 240. GEFS keeps the strong -EPO while EPS goes positive. GEPS is in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 One would think this is a strong storm signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: One would think this is a strong storm signal. I was just looking at that We had a storm in early January when the AO rose. The storm signal would be the wave next week . Let's get that to trend colder. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 27 minutes ago, Northof78 said: How did 0Z Euro look? It was a weenie run especially for those to the N and W of I 78 and I 287. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Pretty stark difference between the GEFS and EPS at 240. GEFS keeps the strong -EPO while EPS goes positive. GEPS is in the middle. Not really looking to in depth at things right now. But my take just looking over the ensembles 500mb this morning. Is that this coming week we are in transition. Before a colder looking pattern could possibly take shape again with ridging near the west coast into Alaska. This isn't some extended torch look to me and could be potentially cold. Might dig a bit deeper in coming days. Just feel like we went through a marathon watching this last storm lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Except for a day or two of a warmup this week, the GFS is cold and stormy . Nice to see that in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Not really looking to in depth at things right now. But my take just looking over the ensembles 500mb this morning. Is that this coming week we are in transition. Before a colder looking pattern could possibly take shape again with ridging near the west coast into Alaska. This isn't some extended torch look to me and could be potentially cold. Might dig a bit deeper in coming days. Just feel like we went through a marathon watching this last storm lol. I will be ok with normal temps in Feb given climo as long as we have an active storm pattern. Snow wlll be falling more or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Northof78 said: How did 0Z Euro look? 12z is way further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 My expectations for Feb particularly first 3 weeks are really low so if we get any snow it'll be a huge win. I remain positive for the Feb 20 - March 15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: My expectations for Feb particularly first 3 weeks are really low so if we get any snow it'll be a huge win. I remain positive for the Feb 20 - March 15 period. Why? The pattern looks cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: My expectations for Feb particularly first 3 weeks are really low so if we get any snow it'll be a huge win. I remain positive for the Feb 20 - March 15 period. Why the low expectations? Curious your meteorological reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Why the low expectations? Curious your meteorological reasoning Its not meteorological, its reverse psychology. 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its not meteorological, its reverse psychology. That has worked for me many times. Always pleasently surprised. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Why the low expectations? Curious your meteorological reasoning we had a cold january.. weather is a revolving door fen has to be warmer then average..especially in the era of climate change.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its not meteorological, its reverse psychology. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, nycwinter said: we had a cold january.. weather is a revolving door fen has to be warmer then average..especially in the era of climate change.. I get that, but still doesn't explain things in the short term. But if it's just reverse psychology, ok, I can vibe with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: Why the low expectations? Curious your meteorological reasoning You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well. We can all do well. Mjo in phase 3 is cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 This may have been mentioned but it appears the pattern change to mild weather may be delayed, looking at the GFS and Euro thermodynamics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I can take the delayed warmth if it somehow means March won’t suck this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Usually when blocking shows up in December it come back that year (at least that's what I thought I hear). Probably when the RNA returns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 When we're the last time the weeklies we're run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Cfa said: I can take the delayed warmth if it somehow means March won’t suck this year. Gimme an early spring in march especially if we’ve had a cold snowy January/February 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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