Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[John1122]

06z is a clipper parade that skirts the area. Shows rain at 138 on the map on Pivotal but the soundings are solidly in the snow indication even at that hour. Column is sub freezing all the way to the surface and it's fairly steep lapse rates too. Another clipper rolls in about 24-30 hours later. It moves almost W to E once it gets to Missouri or that area. Shows rain in Kentucky and clips the Plateau and NE areas with snow. Soundings under the model depicted rain are solidly in the snow category though. Most modeling outside the GFS is trying the bone dry approach. The GFS is merely mostly dry.

[PowellVolz]

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GFS almost went BOOM with our Valentine's day chance:

 

 

 

[Bigbald]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z GFS almost went BOOM with our Valentine's day chance:

 

 

 

We might set a record for how times we can whiff easterly this year.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

42 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

We might set a record for how times we can whiff easterly this year.

The CMC still loves you and wants you to be happy:

 

[PowellVolz]

12z GFS almost went BOOM with our Valentine's day chance:
 

 
 

That’s like a couple hundred miles or something. Definitely worth watching


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

That’s like a couple hundred miles or something. Definitely worth watching


.

The Euro is, I think, about to make up those couple hundred miles with a triple phaser for Valentine's weekend. 

[Weathertree2]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The Euro is, I think, about to make up those couple hundred miles with a triple phaser for Valentine's weekend. 

Pix?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Weathertree2 said:

Pix?

It's not quite far enough in the run to where I could get the whole system, but I will when the run gets out like 12 more hours.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's an appetizer though:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That was a beautiful Euro run, no doubt. Too bad it's the "new" Euro. But there is a signal across all ops for a storm that weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

[Windspeed]

That was a beautiful Euro run, no doubt. Too bad it's the "new" Euro. But there is a signal across all ops for a storm that weekend.

 

 

 
 
 

Inject that straight into my veins. I'll gladly shut it down if that pans out.

[Silas Lang]

18z GFS has the storm next weekend as well. Pops a weak low into central AL to north GA and keeps it just to the other side of the mountains. Snow maps not too different from Euro. 

[Silas Lang]

[Silas Lang]

Nuts to see something so similar on the GFS and Euro. Seems they have been at odds frequently this year. Let's see if we can't get some ensemble support as well. 

[John1122]

Those last two runs of the Euro/GFS are what winter storm dreams are made of across the Valley region. 

[Mrwolf1972]

18z gfs snow chart. 

[Silas Lang]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Those last two runs of the Euro/GFS are what winter storm dreams are made of across the Valley region. 

Indeed. Temps are below freezing during the event and stay that way for days afterwards. Lows in the single digits and teens at night. Perfect winter storm for the area. 

 

[Mr. Kevin]

I would like it a little further nw for my area. I would take 2 inches snow to end winter, but will be optimistic for a little more. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I would like it a little further nw for my area. I would take 2 inches snow to end winter, but will be optimistic for a little more. 

The Euro got 4-6 for your area. Hopefully these solutions hold. The GFS has had it for a while but was on an island. 

[John1122]

The GFS goes from tumbleweed drought conditions for 10 days to biblical flooding from 11-15.  

I have my doubts about either solution. Not sure why the energy it and the Euro saw dropping down the front range that phased into the big weekend storm just went "poof" overnight. 

[Daniel Boone]

Lol. Not surprising really. I don't get how they picked that up and then completely lost it.

      How many snows , storms or clippers have we saw advertised recently within the 10 day window that has materialized.?...Very few. 

     I'm basically down to having any hopes in one, of about 3 days on the horizon.

[*Flash*]

12z ECMWF isn't anything to write home about. Basically, a dry NW flow with a few dusting clippers. We'd be relying on overperforming flizzards akin to last week or phasing to offset restricted moisture supply. We'll see if something trackable for next week remerges. As John recently mentioned, local climo suggests the second week of February can get interesting. Unfortunately, my gut says we're dealing with a placement with teleconnection issue as opposed to a 'models lost the system in the midrange' issue. I sure hope I'm wrong. Despite hitting double digits in total snow this winter, I wouldn't mind another hit before spring.

[Daniel Boone]

We are still slightly less than half the average Seasonal Snowfall here.

7.9" so far.

[John1122]

May not amount to anything but the energy from the 18z yesterday over Western Montana/Idaho is back this run.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

May not amount to anything but the energy from the 18z yesterday over Western Montana/Idaho is back this run.

Was about to say the same thing.  Yeah, this is not going to be anything like the last three runs I don't think.  Should phase...could even cut.

[Carvers Gap]

...Maybe won't phase, but that is three vortices being juggled at 150.  Crazy looking run.  Doubt it looks even close to that next run.  It does tell me that next weekend is not worked out yet.

[John1122]

GFS now has a Gulf low but it may slip east of here, another one in the chamber over the southwest, will have to see where it goes.

[Carvers Gap]

If it doesn't cut-off the energy in the southwest, that could have been a big system.  If that Idaho energy is real...the story isn't written on this yet.

[WinterWonderland]

Robert Gamble of WxSouth's post on Facebook today...

Smooth sailing ahead this week, except tomorrow in VA, Carolinas down to Florida with mainly light precip. There could be an hour or 2 in the NC piedmont early morning for very brief light freezing rain or a sleet pellet, then temps go above 32 ---but will be a raw, cold Monday east of the Apps.

Then just a series of dry fronts but much sunnier weather to finish out the week most of the central and Southeast US. The next system with any potential for development of Gulf moisture will be Saturday night and Sunday--very little chance though, but worth a watch in GA, FL, Carolinas for possibly some precip. That is followed by another pretty sharp cool down, that won't last too long.