Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS continues to beat the drum for a system(northern stream influence) around or just before Valentine's Day - on of John's windows for development which he discussed above.

Also, I wouldn't sleep on that system on Tuesday.  It is the second of a 1-2 punch system that originally was a storm here, then trended OTS, and the trailer is now onshore/coastline again.  The 12z GFS continues to advertise quite a volatile pattern after the tenth - meaning the potential for storms are there.  For sure it could be dry, but there are a ton of relatively small pieces of energy flying around.

[Matthew70]

Looking at my forecast.  It looks way to warm for anything but rain.  To me it looks like spring arrives starting Sunday.  Am I missing something or is forecast wrong on temps?

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Looking at my forecast.  It looks way to warm for anything but rain.  To me it looks like spring arrives starting Sunday.  Am I missing something or is forecast wrong on temps?

Spring is definitely not on wx modeling....yet.  

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, think you have time to put together a GIF of the 12GEFS 500mb height anomy for North America?  

[Carvers Gap]

The MJO is forecast to just die in phases 2 and 3.  Those are cold phases.  -EPO is about to create a block which will drive the bus.  The first week of February has always been warm on modeling for the eastern half of the state.  Again, the window which is being mentioned is Feb 10-20.  It is no slam dunk as modeling can hiccup big time during transitional months.  That said, it can and does snow during a base warm pattern.  Personally, I don't think this will be base warm.  Most of the GEFS looks BN.  It will be hard to erase these first few days of positive departures during a short month, but we erased a +29 during January and a +17 to start the month at TRI.  Temps here finished BN, amazingly. 

Right now a good chunk of the western 2/3 of the forum area is under some sort of buffet of ice storm warnings, WWAs, or WSWs.  Every pattern is going to have some warm intrusions, even during the coldest of cold patterns.  And no guarantees.  I do this as a hobby, so always take it with huge boulders of salt.   

Figure 1.  Notice the EPO is positive right now.  It is forecast to go negative around the 8th.  An interesting tidbit.  The NAO is positive right now but is forecast to trend briefly negative right before Valentine's Day.  Usually a good storm signal.

Figure 2.  The MJO is in cold phases on the GEFS bias corrected map.  That is a winter storm signal there.

 

Figure 3.  MJO monthly correlational maps entered on February.

Figure 4. It may seem like a boring news day for those of us in the East...but really, this day is kind of crazy.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, the 12z Euro has a sneaky shot of light snow on Tuesday for W NC and the mountains of E TN.  Let's see if it continue to back.  That has been a very quiet trend.  Something just to watch for fun for NE TN folks.

Out to 198, the Euro has a vigorous, little northern stream piece of energy.  That is looking more like the GFS.

[Carvers Gap]

I could be wrong, but the Euro looks like it is going to attempt a phase after 216.  LONG WAY out there, but confluence appears to be decent around Valentine's Day.  Maybe we will call it Winter Storm Desperado.

Don't you draw the queen of diamonds, boy
She'll beat you if she's able
You know the queen of hearts is always your best bet
Now it seems to me some fine things have been laid upon your table
But you only want the ones that you can't get....
 

[Carvers Gap]

And one last post in a flurry of posts.  Here is the d11-16 5d 500mb height anomaly look.  Modeling has been quite consistent with this look for many days.  The actual switch to this 500mb looks begins right around the 10th.   Not saying that is what happens, but that looks pretty good.  Get that inside of day 5, and one would think we have some chances.  

 

[Daniel Boone]

16 hours ago, Vol Man said:

I believe it was Valentine's Day in 1987 that Kingsport got about a 7-8 inch snow. Started late afternoon, if I remember correctly. We live in Colonial Heights at the time, and had quite a time getting home from work in a Honda Prelude. 

That was 1986.

[Carvers Gap]

I am going to use the GEPS as maybe the GEFS is a bit overdone.  A big ridge out west shuttles cold air southeastward.  Cold temps over Hudson Bay pivot waves of cold into that synoptic set-up.  The storm tracks on modeling this winter are the two arrows originating in TX or the western GOM.  That is a good set-up.  No guarantees, but we take that 10/10 times.  Good confluence set-up.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GEFS clown map for the entire run.  Most of this falls after the 12th.  That is a good signal.

[PowellVolz]

Large tornado on the ground south of Tuscaloosa Ala moving towards Birmingham


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambler, think you have time to put together a GIF of the 12GEFS 500mb height anomy for North America?  

 

Hopefully better late than never. Just got finished with a few work things. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Been going back and forth, but I'm kinda sorta getting a little interested in Tuesday now. 

Probably not worth any images at this time, but I think there might be an opportunity for one of the shortwaves to amplify more than currently depicted. 

 

Or it could still be a flat washed out mess. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Been going back and forth, but I'm kinda sorta getting a little interested in Tuesday now. 

Probably not worth any images at this time, but I think there might be an opportunity for one of the shortwaves to amplify more than currently depicted. 

 

Or it could still be a flat washed out mess. 

 

18z Euro control backed precip up to the Apps.  It has sneakily been trending NW today.  Will have to make a big move during the next 36 hours on modeling in order to have a chance.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Been going back and forth, but I'm kinda sorta getting a little interested in Tuesday now. 

Probably not worth any images at this time, but I think there might be an opportunity for one of the shortwaves to amplify more than currently depicted. 

 

Or it could still be a flat washed out mess. 

 

Yeah, man.  The 18z operational Euro looked decent before the model ended at 90.  I totally skipped the operational and just looked the control for that earlier post..

[Silas Lang]

Yeah the Monday/Tuesday window has been trending NW. Good to see the Euro moving towards it as well as the GFS. Saw this gif posted in the southeast thread showing the trend on the GFS: 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Another interesting dynamic with the Tuesday deal is that there is some hint of a dual jet structure showing up. I will use the NAM for NAM purposes:

The red circle could be, I think, a very subtle jet streak, and the blue circle is a relatively more dynamic one. By their powers combined, along with ye olden PVA:

 

We get precip (switching to COD graphic because they show more qpf than tropical Tidbits):

 

 

And hot off the presses the 6z Euro which keeps it further east:

 

Some things for considering:

1. I'm not really 100% the red circle from my first gif is even a jet streak. If we were really under the dual jet structure, you would think there could be would be more precip shown.

2. Not a lot of deep moisture shown verbatim. Most moisture is 700mb and lower.

3. Any Boom potential IMO is limited to areas east of 81, so foothills and mountains. Even in upper east TN maybe just Carter, Unicoi, and Johnson counties, and maybe even Bristol? 

4. More vorticity advecting in from the Plains is really trying to keep this sucker squished, so it could still just be an offshore, washed out, flat mess. 

[PowellVolz]

Another interesting dynamic with the Tuesday deal is that there is some hint of a dual jet structure showing up. I will use the NAM for NAM purposes:

The red circle could be, I think, a very subtle jet streak, and the blue circle is a relatively more dynamic one. By their powers combined, along with ye olden PVA:

 
We get precip (switching to COD graphic because they show more qpf than tropical Tidbits):

 
 
And hot off the presses the 6z Euro which keeps it further east:

 
Some things for considering:
1. I'm not really 100% the red circle from my first gif is even a jet streak. If we were really under the dual jet structure, you would think there could be would be more precip shown.
2. Not a lot of deep moisture shown verbatim. Most moisture is 700mb and lower.
3. Any Boom potential IMO is limited to areas east of 81, so foothills and mountains. Even in upper east TN maybe just Carter, Unicoi, and Johnson counties, and maybe even Bristol? 
4. More vorticity advecting in from the Plains is really trying to keep this sucker squished, so it could still just be an offshore, washed out, flat mess. 

Really good stuff. It’s been a weird winter. I can handle having surface temp issues or a “warm noise” because that’s just the valley for you but everything that’s fell for the most part has been snow, especially N of 40. I have been too far NW twice, too far south once and was mega downsloped the last time. Even with the severe downsloping I still stayed all snow.


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[VOLtage]

Latest GFS blankets almost the entire state in snow

 

That 06z run of the GFS this morning which nearly blanked the state seems to be an outlier.

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS sure looks like a phase 1 or 2 of the MJO.  No changes to my thoughts from yesterday.  

[Carvers Gap]

Take a minute and look at the MJO phases above.  Which one does that temp map look like?

 

 

[PowellVolz]

Take a minute and look at the MJO phases above.  Which one does that temp map look like?
 

 

Maybe we can sneak something in under the trough. A .25-.50 qpf can have a high output in a cold dry column.


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[Carvers Gap]

41 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Maybe we can sneak something in under the trough. A .25-.50 qpf can have a high output in a cold dry column.


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I think the 10th-20th is a good window.  When looking at the Euro Weeklies, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO make it back into colder phases(after leaving colder phases after mid-month) at some point around mid-March.  It looks to me like the STJ fire lights at the end of the model colder winder for mid-Feb.  Fingers crossed we can score something.  Looks like we are back to BN for a 2-2.5 weeks beginning tomorrow.

[EastKnox]

59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

  Looks like we are back to BN for a 2-2.5 weeks beginning tomorrow.

I sure hope we score something.  If I'm going to pay these high heating bills, I'd like some snow to go with it.  I've had 4 dustings thus far.  

[Mr. Kevin]

Carver, I've had 1inch snow and a moderate ice/sleet storm so far this winter. I guess about 1-2 inches sleet and just less than quarter inch ice with yesterdays event. I would like to get one decent snow event here before winter is over. 

[Carvers Gap]

34 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, I've had 1inch snow and a moderate ice/sleet storm so far this winter. I guess about 1-2 inches sleet and just less than quarter inch ice with yesterdays event. I would like to get one decent snow event here before winter is over. 

If I had to pick one place that looks like is going to score, it would be Arkansas.  If you look at the storm track above, you score with the western track.  I think after the 20th, we have a break as the MJO rotates through the warm phases...and then a reload during March.  I think this is a year where a later winter storm is on the table after a faux spring bout of warmth.  If El Nino is about to to take over, spring might not be a slam dunk for being base warm.  After BN temps for January IMBY, I will be ready for spring by the end of the month.  My first onions were planted in the hoop house this afternoon.  Spring is almost here.  I never discount February surprises.  

[Carvers Gap]

For folks on the northern Plateau, NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC...after the 11th there looks to be several weak northern-dominated systems which will need to be watched.  

[PowellVolz]

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[Carvers Gap]

Definitely got some snow here. Just got a very light dusting.  Snow lasted about an hour.