Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[Math/Met]

It still looks like there will be a prolonged wind event along the mountains and foothills. Winds will begin to pick up tomorrow in the typical areas. The LLJ tomorrow is approaching 65 kts into Middle TN and Kentucky on some models. The flow directly over the mountains is weaker, but still enough to produce strong gusts with the direction of the cross-barrier flow being favorable 

Models redevelop and lift the core of the LLJ just far enough north on Thursday to continue the mountain wave threat.  Some models have been less aggressive bringing the LLJ that far north, and possibly with a more SW direction. So still a few uncertainties. Either way, this is probably the best mountain wave setup so far this winter(very slow year for mw's). It's not a textbook MW setup, but I think there will still be some decent gusts. Depending on how it develops, I might make a trip to Camp Creek in the next two days. 

[Carvers Gap]

MW posts are some of my favorites.  For those new to the forum, @Math/Metis an expert.  

As or the LR, I am going to keep it short(amazing, right?) so as not to bury that great MW post in the thread.  The LR right after the 10th looks really good - as in really good.  I do caution that pattern is about 8 days out, so that could still change.  The configuration of the trough over the East would be quite a wintry pattern for however long that look lasts.  See my ensemble post graphics from yesterday as a reference.  For now, we get the pattern and worry about the details (storms in the pattern).  Obviously one can never guarantee anything in the weather, and I will avoid that when at all possible...but that is a big time look.  Will post more later.

[Carvers Gap]

Well, I never posted more.  LOL.  We are in a lull in the eastern forum areas.  Meanwhile, the western forum areas will be fighting to keep the lights on due to ice.

IF....IF...the 12z ensembles of both the GEFS and EPS are correct, we have a good pattern at 500 following this storm.  Again, I think the time to watch is Feb 10-20th.  The EPS looks particularly good as it puts the storm track right on the eastern seaboard or slightly inland.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS is honking after d10.  The d10-16 snow mean fro NE TN is 4"+ which is significant at this range.  That is a big bump upward.  @Wurbus, I have to hit the road again.  Any big storms skewing that, or is that pretty consistent?  You have a good eye or those individuals mean trends.

[PowellVolz]

Seems like a week or so ago the Euro was advertising possible dry conditions for the next several weeks.


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[PowellVolz]

I just don’t want any part of the February floods from a few years ago.


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[Carvers Gap]

I don’t think it will be bone dry.  Man, I could be wrong.  Usually colder patterns have some dry wx embedded.  Cold requires dry air masses for the most part in order to sustain the cold.   I don’t trust details in modeling right now.  The overall long wave pattern computer modeling has been stellar in the LR this winter.  Really, the only thing modeling has missed is they flipped erroneously to a baser warm pattern for Feb.  Feb may finish AN for temps, but it will be the first 4-5 days which do it.  February looks like a battleground month for this area...some rain and some snow.

I think the East is currently completing the dry spell which was forecast.   With the heavy rain we are about to get, we need about 5-7 days to dry and/or thaw out.  After the 10th(with the way the tough is aligned and assuming modeling is very likely over doing the depth of the trough), could be multiple systems at that point.  I would be shocked if we don’t see 1-2 big storms after the 10th in the East  That is a big time set up at 500.

@Holston_River_Rambler, Cosgrove mentioned on FB that the strat may be getting jostled.  Now, I admittedly skimmed that post.  Have u seen anything of the sort? If so...spring may start...and then stop!  

Of note, the last part of spring looks a bit chilly on the cfs.  Makes me wonder if El Niño is about to show up.  LOL 

Lastly, if you all have not read math/met’s post on the mountain wave event, please do so.  It is just a few posts above this one.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cosgrove mentioned on FB that the strat may be getting jostled.  Now, I admittedly skimmed that post.  Have u seen anything of the sort? If so...spring may start...and then stop!  

I haven't seen anything worth mentioning, looking off an on over the past week or so. I went back and check overnight, just see if there was something that made him mention and this was about the best I could find:

The barest hint of a small split at 50mb on that run. 

There was someone on twitter who posted something about a strat warming showing up on some long range Euro product a while back, so that may be what he was referring to. I also think early March is when it naturally starts to breakdown anyway. 

Overall looks stout on the GEFS, but one member looks like it is trying:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 After the 10th(with the way the tough is aligned and assuming modeling is very likely over doing the depth of the trough), could be multiple systems at that point.  I would be shocked if we don’t see 1-2 big storms after the 10th in the East  That is a big time set up at 500.

Despite my pessimism yesterday, there does seem to be a pretty big signal for some sort of storm Valentines weekend, or just after, details TBD. 

There looks to be a East asian Mountain Torque event (low pressure to the lee of the Himalayas) over the next few days that should extend the Pac jet:

 

Here is a Webb explanation for a different event in 2018 ( but it is probably the clearest and most succinct explanation of what a mountain torque does, that I've read):

 

You can see how the GFS resolves the added momentum about a week later in the amplification of the AK ridge and subsequent downstream troughing around Valentines weekend. 

 

I think it just depends on where that ridge sets up and trough dumps. I can't believe I'm saying this, but a -NAO would be nice. But I do think the relative nearness in time of the mountain torque to the lee of the Himalayas, is giving more than the usual certainty of some sort of trough amplification in the central or eastern US around Valentine's day.  

Also for you east Asia rule folks, that 12z GFS at 300 was a weenie run Se and east of Japan:

I think it actually has to be happening and not in fantasy range for the east Asia rule to count, though, lol. 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah we got the -ABNA trying to go. That's cold South China and Southeast USA if it verifies. 11-15 day did trend colder.

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Ramblerbringing the goods with the mountain torque stuff.  I couldn't find my way out of a paper bag if trying to discuss MT.  @nrgjeff, man, was working on this post when you posted....

 

1.  I may have actually misread Larry on this one.   Here is his quote regarding March.  He is not overly cold for February BTW.  This is just relating to the PV discussion:

Changes in the circumpolar vortex at the stratospheric level (10MB), with a transfer of coldest values to Canada, might allow a comeback assault of frigid air at some point between March 1 and 10. But the sun is getting higher in the sky, and opportunities to build snow cover after this week appear limited.

2.  The 50mb anomaly on the 18z GFS looks pretty jostled.

3.  The GFS has had a clipper around the 204 range and is moving it forward in time.  It has had that for days.

4.  Here is the d5-10 500mb pattern and the d10-15 500mb pattern.  If the EPS is correct, the pattern should mature in the d10-15 range.  

 

5.  CANSIPS model from WxBell shows a cold February(edit!) which looks awfully similar to the GEFS and EPS.  With February often being an active weather month, hard not to like that.  It has AN precip for the month over the TN Valley, but the event tomorrow may skew that a bit.  The CPC today has the 6-14 w/ BN precip.  That said, sometimes cold/wintry patterns have BN precip OR the pattern is just dry!

 

6. And the only teleconnection that matters....

Punxsutawney Phil, Poppy, Mount Joy Minnie and Octoraro Orphie gave their predictions today, with a nearly unanimous prognostication for six more weeks of winter. Only one -- Orphie -- is calling for an early spring. 

https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-punxsutawney-phil-and-lancaster-countys-own-groundhogs-predicted-on-groundhog-day-2022-photos/article_5457d342-8421-11ec-9f66-bfca0220a202.html

 

I hope Phil has his crap together on this...

[John1122]

For whatever reason, January 28th-30th shows up repeatedly in history for winter storms, and we had one this year. The other time frame that really sticks out is Feb 13th-15th. I'm sure it's anecdotal but it seems like we see a lot of Valentine's Day winter events. 

[Greyhound]

[mention=16126]Holston_River_Rambler[/mention]bringing the goods with the mountain torque stuff.  I couldn't find my way out of a paper bag if trying to discuss MT.  [mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention], man, was working on this post when you posted....
 
1.  I may have actually misread Larry on this one.   Here is his quote regarding March.  He is not overly cold for February BTW.  This is just relating to the PV discussion:
Changes in the circumpolar vortex at the stratospheric level (10MB), with a transfer of coldest values to Canada, might allow a comeback assault of frigid air at some point between March 1 and 10. But the sun is getting higher in the sky, and opportunities to build snow cover after this week appear limited.
2.  The 50mb anomaly on the 18z GFS looks pretty jostled.

3.  The GFS has had a clipper around the 204 range and is moving it forward in time.  It has had that for days.
4.  Here is the d5-10 500mb pattern and the d10-15 500mb pattern.  If the EPS is correct, the pattern should mature in the d10-15 range.  



 
5.  CANSIPS model from WxBell shows a cold February(edit!) which looks awfully similar to the GEFS and EPS.  With February often being an active weather month, hard not to like that.  It has AN precip for the month over the TN Valley, but the event tomorrow may skew that a bit.  The CPC today has the 6-14 w/ BN precip.  That said, sometimes cold/wintry patterns have BN precip OR the pattern is just dry!


 
6. And the only teleconnection that matters....
Punxsutawney Phil, Poppy, Mount Joy Minnie and Octoraro Orphie gave their predictions today, with a nearly unanimous prognostication for six more weeks of winter. Only one -- Orphie -- is calling for an early spring. 
https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-punxsutawney-phil-and-lancaster-countys-own-groundhogs-predicted-on-groundhog-day-2022-photos/article_5457d342-8421-11ec-9f66-bfca0220a202.html
 
I hope Phil has his crap together on this...

You forgot Georgia’s very own General Beauregard Lee!!! He didn’t see his shadow today…..so bring on the warmer weather!!!!

[PowellVolz]

For whatever reason, January 28th-30th shows up repeatedly in history for winter storms, and we had one this year. The other time frame that really sticks out is Feb 13th-15th. I'm sure it's anecdotal but it seems like we see a lot of Valentine's Day winter events. 

I’m 47 but I remember multiple times in elementary and middle school getting stuck at school at or around Valentines Day. I can’t remember exactly what year but I remember on Valentine’s Day in middle school we got stuck at school from a surprise snow that was supposed to be mostly rain. It was an I-40 special because we ended up with several inches but Knoxville got nothing but rain.


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[Vol Man]

31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m 47 but I remember multiple times in elementary and middle school getting stuck at school at or around Valentines Day. I can’t remember exactly what year but I remember on Valentine’s Day in middle school we got stuck at school from a surprise snow that was supposed to be mostly rain. It was an I-40 special because we ended up with several inches but Knoxville got nothing but rain.


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I believe it was Valentine's Day in 1987 that Kingsport got about a 7-8 inch snow. Started late afternoon, if I remember correctly. We live in Colonial Heights at the time, and had quite a time getting home from work in a Honda Prelude. 

[Silas Lang]

6 minutes ago, Vol Man said:

I believe it was Valentine's Day in 1987 that Kingsport got about a 7-8 inch snow. Started late afternoon, if I remember correctly. We live in Colonial Heights at the time, and had quite a time getting home from work in a Honda Prelude. 

In the other thread it was brought up that TYS and TRI had their best January snowfall since 2014 and 2016. I looked up the following Februarys and it looks like 2014 had the storm that clobbered the valley around Valentine's day in 2014. Nothing big in 2016. Anyway, hopefully this year we can get lucky around that time once again. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Greyhound said:

You forgot Georgia’s very own General Beauregard Lee!!! He didn’t see his shadow today…..so bring on the warmer weather!!!!

The old school mammalian version of Dr No!   

[John1122]

43 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

In the other thread it was brought up that TYS and TRI had their best January snowfall since 2014 and 2016. I looked up the following Februarys and it looks like 2014 had the storm that clobbered the valley around Valentine's day in 2014. Nothing big in 2016. Anyway, hopefully this year we can get lucky around that time once again. 

There was a big winter storm Valentines Day 2016. It was ice/sleet in lower elevations and a front end snow thump along the Plateau and NE areas. 

[Silas Lang]

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There was a big winter storm Valentines Day 2016. It was ice/sleet in lower elevations and a front end snow thump along the Plateau and NE areas. 

Thanks, I stand corrected. I don't know how I missed it looking through the threads. Well climo does seem to favor that period for some reason. Hope we get some action this go round. 

[John1122]

Just now, Silas Lang said:

Thanks, I stand corrected. I don't know how I missed it looking through the threads. Well climo does seem to favor that period for some reason. Hope we get some action this go round. 

I love the threads for that. Glad we are building our own database. I think you mentioned getting in on the nice front end on the thread. 

We also had a big winter storm Feb 16th 2015. It's crazy how that V-Day week is so productive. 

[ottorec]

Nice Valentines Snow in 1986.  Closed my office early at ParkWest in west Knoxville and took 2 hours to take the office staff home as I had “front wheel drive”. Not many 4 wheel drives back then. Good times.

 

[Wurbus]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS is honking after d10.  The d10-16 snow mean fro NE TN is 4"+ which is significant at this range.  That is a big bump upward.  @Wurbus, I have to hit the road again.  Any big storms skewing that, or is that pretty consistent?  You have a good eye or those individuals mean trends.

Sorry, been a crazy busy day and just now catching up on the model runs. I didn't see any huge individual members skewing the mean on the 12/18z runs. Per those GEFS runs, it appears the 15th-17th is a time to watch. That is still 2 weeks out, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, ottorec said:

Nice Valentines Snow in 1986.  Closed my office early at ParkWest in west Knoxville and took 2 hours to take the office staff home as I had “front wheel drive”. Not many 4 wheel drives back then. Good times.

 

We got 13.5" here that day. 6" of that fell in an hour and 15 minutes that afternoon. The heaviest, straight down snow I've witnessed at that duration. Flakes were large, medium and small. Visibility was around 100 yards !

      

[Mr. Kevin]

Carver, we are under a winter storm warning now for .25-.50 inches ice and 1-2 inches sleet. Be ready for spring after this lol. Hopefully my area stays away from ice though 

[Mr. Kevin]

Also I think something else contributing to colder pattern is the niña is completely east based which feeds an Alaskan ridge, -wpo pattern. 

[PowellVolz]

My buddy in Lexington Tn, just east of Jackson says it’s already 32° at his house and wasn’t supposed to get that cold until late afternoon.


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[PowellVolz]

Carver, we are under a winter storm warning now for .25-.50 inches ice and 1-2 inches sleet. Be ready for spring after this lol. Hopefully my area stays away from ice though 

I apologize… your location?


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[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, we are under a winter storm warning now for .25-.50 inches ice and 1-2 inches sleet. Be ready for spring after this lol. Hopefully my area stays away from ice though 

Keep the lights on!!!

I think spring will wait until after the 20th at least...but it is kinda headed toward spring at that point anyway with the days getting longer and being almost March.  I think Arkansas actually may still see some winter after this even if modeling is even close to correct.  

I have a batch of onions to put in my hoop house.  I need it to get warm at some point.  LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

My buddy in Lexington Tn, just east of Jackson says it’s already 32° at his house and wasn’t supposed to get that cold until late afternoon.


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That is wild.  Cold appears to be outdoing modeling if that is the case.  

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Also I think something else contributing to colder pattern is the niña is completely east based which feeds an Alaskan ridge, -wpo pattern. 

Weak La Nina's are cold roughly 65-70% of the time in the Upper South, sometimes very cold.  The worst cold/snow I have seen IMBY has been during weak La Ninas.  Weak La Ninas often occur during the second year of a La Nina cycle.  I think the combination of the La Nina being weak and it being year 2 of the cycle(resets ocean temp gradients), makes them colder on average.  I will have a break-down of the winter(what went right/wrong) once February is over.  These second year, weak La Ninas have a pretty normal pattern which is different than year one.  Year one, December is cold with a warm-up during Jan/Feb.  Year two, December is warm and then often(not always) January into February is cold.   I also think @John1122's correlation of cold Novembers worked out nicely this year.   I am not so sure it didn't work last year as well given the snow/ice in W TN last year at this time.   Additionally, the cold/snow which we had in E TN was likely in response to the Dec -NAO pattern waining and leaving.  The end of an NAO pattern is good for eastern areas.  The storm tract remains suppressed even as the STJ kicks back in.  And definitely worth noting, NAOs are better during mid and late winter(not December).