Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[Silas Lang]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The GFS was similar to 0z but remains alone. That's happened all winter, sometimes its been right and the others folded, sometimes wrong and it did. Hopefully it's right with a late winter send off. 

Even with the GFS, the temps seem to warm pretty quickly after the snow falls. Still wouldn't mind a quick thump. 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

Even with the GFS, the temps seem to warm pretty quickly after the snow falls. Still wouldn't mind a quick thump. 

That's the way it goes 90 percent of the time with late season snows. But it's always fun while it's falling. 

The Euro has the same snow footprint but just much lighter amounts. 

[PowellVolz]

That's the way it goes 90 percent of the time with late season snows. But it's always fun while it's falling. 
The Euro has the same snow footprint but just much lighter amounts. 

ULL comes in handy this time of year


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[brewman22001]

On 2/21/2022 at 1:45 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The only way this is going to work is if we get some nice thunder this week. Nary a rumble since I can remember. TIMs is out of juice. 

It’s coming a nice thunderstorm in Lenoir City!!

[John1122]

18z GFS was a Middle Tennessee, Plateau and NE TN and points north into S Kentucky and SW VA paste job. 0z coming in shortly. Hopefully it doesn't fold and the other models get on board. 

[Matthew70]

Paducah sleet fest. Yuck. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think we're in the worst of the "long range modeling having deteriorating looks" phase of Feb. Tropical convection is ugly, but chugging along:

 

It still has to make it further east and not die out when and if it gets into more favorable reasons. I'm sure there will be a couple of tropical cyclones to delay it as well, but I think the second week of March holds some hope. There's some talk in the MA forum of a -AO as well. 

Or I could be totally wrong. But hey, at least the floods look like they end today for a week! And no one has 14 inches of rain, thankfully. 

[Carvers Gap]

Thunder in TRI.

[Jed33]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thunder in TRI.

Big time storm just rolled through here! 

[Dsty2001]

Flash flood warning for Greene Co.  It's raining cats and dogs rn

[PowellVolz]

There was some decent winds with this as it moved though my area this morning, est around 40ish. Lots of limbs down and you can see a few frames later it “outflowed” it’s self.






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[Carvers Gap]

I gotta be honest, the Euro Weeklies don't look warm after week 2.  I was kind of surprised.  Now, I think the GEFS has handled the MJO better.  However, it looks like the Euro Weeklies are rotating into the cold phases just after March 10th.  Holston alluded to that above I think.

[John1122]

GFS is trying to bring back the Sunday system but the hi-res models aren't biting. 

[John1122]

Euro tried for some frozen precipitation just south of where the GFS placed it. 

[PowellVolz]

The back edge of the cloud deck looks like a shelf or roll cloud. Guess that’s CAA pushing in, kinda cool looking.


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[PowellVolz]

The back edge of the cloud deck looks like a shelf or roll cloud. Guess that’s CAA pushing in, kinda cool looking.


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Just a small picture but it goes from N to S as far as I can see.




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[Shocker0]

Good snow shower moving through Crossville right now.

[Wintersnow888]

12 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Good snow shower moving through Crossville right now.

Yes I tried to take a picture but was unsuccessful.... Nice surprise and hope it is a good omen for tomorrow!!

[8283 El Nino Baby]

Same here. Good snow rate, but temps seem to worm for it to stick.

[John1122]

UKIE trying to get onboard with a snow thump from my area to NE Tn and N. UKIE and GFS have it, short range and Canadians don't.

[Mr. Kevin]

I saw a minor sleet and fzr event wed afternoon into midday Thursday. Wed afternoon it was bad here. We got heavy sleet and thunder at 28 degrees. Never saw thundersleet until then. No power outages but got about half inch sleet and quarter inch ice. I think the ao and nao will trend negative mid month due to strat stuff going on and maybe one last hoorah if we can get a ULL. 

[John1122]

57 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I saw a minor sleet and fzr event wed afternoon into midday Thursday. Wed afternoon it was bad here. We got heavy sleet and thunder at 28 degrees. Never saw thundersleet until then. No power outages but got about half inch sleet and quarter inch ice. I think the ao and nao will trend negative mid month due to strat stuff going on and maybe one last hoorah if we can get a ULL. 

 

I was wondering how much wintery weather you got. Appeared to be a long duration event.

[John1122]

NAM jumps on board for some wet heavy snow flying. Basically 40 North to the border areas in the Eastern valley. 

[PowellVolz]

Man it’s pouring the sleet at my house


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[PowellVolz]

Now it’s mixed with snow 39 degrees


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[Silas Lang]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Man it’s pouring the sleet at my house


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Same. Just posted in the obs thread. The radar looks juiced too. Showing snow to the north west. Any obs from the Plateau? Like even if it is just rain here, the radar is showing a lot more moisture than the models did. Earlier too. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the convection from last Sunday has pushed into the western Pac a little quicker than I was expecting. 

With that look I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge SOI drop one day later this week or next weekend. Now to be fair the SOI was almost +20 today, but there is also a tropical cyclone creeping around near Darwin. 

Looks like there is also some decent convection firing in the eastern Indian Ocean, so I guess we'll see what that does as the week goes on. 

I still think we might have a window centered on the ides of March, plus or minus a few days before or after.

[*Flash*]

So by now, we all know March will come in like a lamb. The questions I'm getting from colleagues concern if we'll see severe and/or more winter weather in the near future. Oddly, while I think the lion will eventually come, I'm not seeing evidence to either apart from more heaving rain March 5-12. Personally, I would love one more winter weather event even if it means a plateau chase. Severe weather...I'm rooting for a quiet year. 2020 and 2021 have been brutal  years for middle Tennessee.