Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[Shocker0]

7 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

If that's a true Gap near Monterey the one would expect convergence downstream for Maryland and Pleasant Hill. White zone on the chart could also benefit from upslope on the Rim.

However the convergence lee of the Gap is probably the bigger driver, at least it appears so by scale and the yellow area. Directional convergence just part of it. Bernoulli Effect should accelerate air through the Gap. Air runs into slower moving air lee side, and more convergence is created. All this is hypotheses based on fluid theory. Wind observations could test and confirm. 

Microclimates always interest me. Good stuff!

Very informative, thanks! I will say the hilly/bumpy looking areas on the topographic map that Holston made, are not really hilly looking from the Plateau, since the "peaks" flatten off to be level with the elevation of Monterey Therefore you don't really see any mountainous looking areas in Monterey as you would from the bottom of the plateau in Cookeville. So the other areas on the map are actually just dips (or hollows)? I guess, where the elevation is around 1100-1300ft while Monterey sits closer to 1900'. Not sure if this would change the scenario you mentioned any though. It has definitely become more interesting to me since I started driving around more when it snows and seeing how different it is from one location to the next here.

 

[jaxjagman]

On 2/14/2022 at 12:49 AM, jaxjagman said:

Someone is going to get dumped on if the long range models are right.Mid Level ridge around the Caribbean and Upper Level Ridge around the MId Atllantic.No clue about severet but hydro would suggest with this pattern some serious flood potential somewhere..JMO

Long range models did a decent job somewhat with the Subtropical ridge it seems.Question still looms what convection comes it,severe if any also.IMO winter is over after the trough going through East Asia today.There seemingly will be a SER setting up for us in the long range

[Holston_River_Rambler]

MJO convection, IMO, seems to be moving pretty well. 

 

It's taken it about a week and a half to move from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent. The TC aiming at Madagascar is a big reason why the RMMs want to keep it in the Indian Ocean at this point, I think. 

 

Below you can see how the Euro ensembles really want to jump it to the MC, but the IMO TC is forcing whatever equation Wheeler and Hendon came up with to spit out a medium amplitude phase 3. 

 

I think in ~ 10 days the MJO wave is going to be back in the western Pac or close to it. Questions though: 1. How far does it make it/ Will it be a strong push? 2. How many TCs get spun up and potential weaken any convection associated with it? 3. Does it even matter in March? 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some of the 0z EPS members really like the storm window y'all were talking about yesterday:

[jaxjagman]

8 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

MJO convection, IMO, seems to be moving pretty well. 

 

It's taken it about a week and a half to move from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent. The TC aiming at Madagascar is a big reason why the RMMs want to keep it in the Indian Ocean at this point, I think. 

 

Below you can see how the Euro ensembles really want to jump it to the MC, but the IMO TC is forcing whatever equation Wheeler and Hendon came up with to spit out a medium amplitude phase 3. 

 

I think in ~ 10 days the MJO wave is going to be back in the western Pac or close to it. Questions though: 1. How far does it make it/ Will it be a strong push? 2. How many TCs get spun up and potential weaken any convection associated with it? 3. Does it even matter in March? 

 

Shouldnt have said winter was over,i really dont know that,especially the higher elevations.But when in see ridging building in Korea that generally means the same here,models are hinting at that into the first week of March.

CFS seems to have some destructive interfernce with the MJO signal and shows it moving further east and fast.But this seems to be by a KW moving  into that region which it is showing.I think you are more right the MJO looks to be in the WP 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Shouldnt have said winter was over,i really dont know that,especially the higher elevations.But when in see ridging building in Korea that generally means the same here,models are hinting at that into the first week of March.

CFS seems to have some destructive interfernce with the MJO signal and shows it moving further east and fast.But this seems to be by a KW moving  into that region which it is showing.I think you are more right the MJO looks to be in the WP 

Sorry I didn't mean that to come out as challenge to the "winter's over" statement. It could be for me, for all I know. I had just been thinking about the MJO for the past couple days and was thinking about making a post after I looked at it. I hadn't looked at it since last week and it just struck me how much it seemed to have progressed. If nothing else it seems to be persistent, but weak this winter, but it also seems to get sort of hung up for a bit in some areas. 

[jaxjagman]

27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sorry I didn't mean that to come out as challenge to the "winter's over" statement. It could be for me, for all I know. I had just been thinking about the MJO for the past couple days and was thinking about making a post after I looked at it. I hadn't looked at it since last week and it just struck me how much it seemed to have progressed. If nothing else it seems to be persistent, but weak this winter, but it also seems to get sort of hung up for a bit in some areas. 

lol..i was directing that to me for my post last evening,its all good

[PowellVolz]

Sorry I didn't mean that to come out as challenge to the "winter's over" statement. It could be for me, for all I know. I had just been thinking about the MJO for the past couple days and was thinking about making a post after I looked at it. I hadn't looked at it since last week and it just struck me how much it seemed to have progressed. If nothing else it seems to be persistent, but weak this winter, but it also seems to get sort of hung up for a bit in some areas. 

I think winter is probably about over for those not in elevation.


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[Carvers Gap]

Modeling sort brought back the system around the 27-28th timeframe.  The Euro has it, and to a lesser extent, the CMC has it. The 6z GFS flirted with it.  Just something to keep an eye on.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS now has the winter storm at 144.  

[Carvers Gap]

I missed it, but the 0z ICON had it as well.  Looks like it is a close call for the I-81 corridor in the eastern valley, and I40(north) across the entire state...if modeling is even close to correct.  Looks like the trend is northward.  So, this could end-up in Columbus, Ohio, before the trends are over...but the hp to the north should help.

[Carvers Gap]

If the 12z GFS is to be believed, there is a big Arctic high trailing this system.  This may well be a another case where the GFS nailed this from very long range, lost it, and got it back.  

[Carvers Gap]

Brutally cold air(relative to norms) showing up on several models for the 27-28th.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC is a little to southeast and we want it right there given trends!

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z CMC and GFS are showing single digits for Sunday into Tuesday for overnight lows.  This might be the coldest air mass of the season for the eastern third of the forum area.

[Silas Lang]

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC is a little to southeast and we want it right there given trends!

Yeah, better there than north. I noticed yesterday the Euro 12z had it far north (like in Ohio) while the GFS had it crushed SE in the Atlantic. Looks like models are trending toward the middle today. Have my doubts for TYS, but I hope someone can score with this storm! Cold temps definitely seem on deck for all. 

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Yeah, better there than north. I noticed yesterday the Euro 12z had it far north (like in Ohio) while the GFS had it crushed SE in the Atlantic. Looks like models are trending toward the middle today. Have my doubts for TYS, but I hope someone can score with this storm! Cold temps definitely seem on deck for all. 

Right now, the cold just ridiculous for late February.  Fortunately, I don't have anything but onions and garlic in the garden.  The wild thing is the GFS had a decent pattern after that as well.  The EPS has been kind of showing positively tilted trough with really cold air behind it.  Probably a better look for the Ohio River Valley, but wouldn't take much to make March crazy.

[Carvers Gap]

Grabbed this from the MA forum.  A poster there has the 12z UKMET at 168.  Anyone have a snow map for that range?  Pivotal only goes to 144.  Pretty much a perfect track for the eastern valley.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro looks like a rainer as the high is much weaker over the top.  Still in the game, but a different look for sure. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

41 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Grabbed this from the MA forum.  A poster there has the 12z UKMET at 168.  Anyone have a snow map for that range?  Pivotal only goes to 144.  Pretty much a perfect track for the eastern valley.

 

 

Sadly I cancelled Storm Vista, or I would show the Ukie.

Euro tries for some last second magic for TRI though:

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro looks like a rainer as the high is much weaker over the top.  Still in the game, but a different look for sure. 

Nope.  It ended up getting its act together!

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sadly I cancelled Storm Vista, or I would show the Ukie.

Euro tries for some last second magic for TRI though:

That is an old-school set-up right there.  SLP forms to our SE and cold crashed into the backside of the storm.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The only way this is going to work is if we get some nice thunder this week. Nary a rumble since I can remember. TIMs is out of juice. 

[John1122]

Another big hitter north of 40 on the 18z GFS. 

[John1122]

GFS rocked the 40 corridor that run. Rain to heavy snow moves right along 40, West to East. 

[John1122]

Canadian is nothing, ICON is slightly south of the GFS but warmer. It's got a known warm bias. 

[PowellVolz]

The only way this is going to work is if we get some nice thunder this week. Nary a rumble since I can remember. TIMs is out of juice. 

We have a winner


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[Silas Lang]

Heard thunder early this AM. TIMs model is showing a chance for snow! 

[BuCoVaWx]

Very loud thunder here several times this morning. Woke the wife lol.

[John1122]

The GFS was similar to 0z but remains alone. That's happened all winter, sometimes its been right and the others folded, sometimes wrong and it did. Hopefully it's right with a late winter send off.