Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[John1122]

March of 1975 is probably the best of the follow up Ninas for Winter  Weather. There was a widespread 2.5-6 inch event that even hit valley areas near mid-Month. There were several other snowy days that month, with an early month 2 inch event imby. 

2018 the snow got into the valley areas. I know Jed had 2 inches from an event and I think others further south pulled it off. 

Eventually March 1960, April 1987, March 1993 etc will repeat. Hopefully we are all around to see it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS brought back the colder shot (6z was cold...0z was COLD).  

[Jed33]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

March of 1975 is probably the best of the follow up Ninas for Winter  Weather. There was a widespread 2.5-6 inch event that even hit valley areas near mid-Month. There were several other snowy days that month, with an early month 2 inch event imby. 

2018 the snow got into the valley areas. I know Jed had 2 inches from an event and I think others further south pulled it off. 

Eventually March 1960, April 1987, March 1993 etc will repeat. Hopefully we are all around to see it. 

Yes, I remember that one well! I took the kids to school that morning and it had been flurrying off and on. Then, on the way home, the skies opened up and it was just pouring snow for awhile. The kids actually did not get dismissed for that one until normal time. Probably a good thing or could have been some trouble getting everyone home that morning. We had about 2in on the grass and elevated surfaces and probably about an inch on the roads. The snow hung around in the grass all day, but by evening most of the roads were fine where they salted and plowed. Kids made it home fine, but they felt cheated out of a snow day haha! 
 

Some of the biggest snows forum wide are from March and April. I’m not calling for a repeat of that, but it’s possible. I remember some from my childhood and that was when I lived in N MS. 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like a Yukon block on the LR GEFS at 18z.  @nrgjeffis that what that is or am I misreading that?

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, John1122 said:

March of 1975 is probably the best of the follow up Ninas for Winter  Weather. There was a widespread 2.5-6 inch event that even hit valley areas near mid-Month. There were several other snowy days that month, with an early month 2 inch event imby. 

2018 the snow got into the valley areas. I know Jed had 2 inches from an event and I think others further south pulled it off. 

Eventually March 1960, April 1987, March 1993 etc will repeat. Hopefully we are all around to see it. 

Yeah, one of my Winter analogs. Hopefully it'll work out. '72 one failed.

[nrgjeff]

Cold starting late next week into the 26th weekend has support from the Yukon block @Carvers Gap that's a good description. However I'm not sure how long it'll last. It's been cold-ish for six weeks now.

[Carvers Gap]

I will take what the 12z GFS is serving up, and call it a winter.

[Carvers Gap]

With a VERY active STJ and cold looking more likely(and is speeding up in modeling a bit) for early March and even late February, an overrunning event of undetermined duration is a plausible scenario.  Firehose meets cold air mass.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I was just about to say that was kind of a weenie GFS run if I ever saw one. 

[Carvers Gap]

Normally, I would toss anything that extreme.  However, the actual mechanics appear to be in place for something like that.  I would guess more of KY and the Ohio River Valley event...but it depends on how far the cold presses.  That look will likely be gone next run, but the synoptics are likey still there, meaning huge amounts of moisture and a potentially very colder mass later this month and into early February.  That is the stuff dreams are made of...LOL.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Might as well show the snow map, just in case the GFS is having one of it's moments of long range clarity:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We'd be worrying not about ground temperatures, but about the snow sticking to the flood waters:

 

All this precip is before the snow starts. 

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We'd be worrying not about ground temperatures, but about the snow sticking to the flood waters:

 

All this precip is before the snow starts. 

 

The March of 1975 follow up Nina I talked about yesterday that had three snow events here, there was also to 14-16 inches of rainfall. across the valley  February was also really warm around this time and nearly an inch of ran fell.  A few days later it was really warm and 1.5 inches fell. By the first of March cold arrived and it was cold most of the month. It finished around 4 degrees below normal. Jan 1975 managed double digit snowfall totals along the Plateau while being AN on temps, as there was no real extreme type cold that month. It's quite similar to this winter, there was 3-4 inches of snow East of  75 like this year. The temps were slightly cooler in January than in Jan 1975 but there was no extreme cold which I mark as highs in the 10s and lows below 0. So really very similar weather and that same similarity looks like it's on the models now.

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC doesn't go out as far(240(, but it established a gradient set-up as well.  The next system isn't in play when the run ends.  This look has been showing up for days on ensemble runs.  Operationals are finally picking up on it.

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z CMC and GFS end the warm-up right around the 24th, and then there is a return to BN temps.  That return to cold has moved up ~7 days.  It was on tap around March 3-4th at one time.  This could be a long climb back to spring if that pattern establishes(Yukon Ridge).  I tend to agree with Jeff that this pattern is on borrowed time, but some seasonal modeling is hinting at bouts of cold during spring vs a full warm-up and winter is over deal.

[Carvers Gap]

@Math/Met, any mountain wave updates.  It is howling in west Kingsport BTW.  Looks like that wind has worked its way down to the surface here.  

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountains (TIMS) mode was alive and breathing at 12z.   LOL!!!  Seriously, what an uncanny rule of thumb.

[Greyhound]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Might as well show the snow map, just in case the GFS is having one of it's moments of long range clarity:

Assume this is before the multidirectional shift away from the great TN Valley region?

[Silas Lang]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Might as well show the snow map, just in case the GFS is having one of it's moments of long range clarity:

Me after looking at the 12z GFS

[Math/Met]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Math/Met, any mountain wave updates.  It is howling in west Kingsport BTW.  Looks like that wind has worked its way down to the surface here.  

There have been a few personal weather stations reporting gusts over 60mph in southern Greene Co earlier today. There is probably bit of a lull right now (typical afternoon lull), but conditions likely become more favorable again tonight and continuing tomorrow. Very strong LLJ with this system. Still think it has potential to create some high end MW gusts in the usual areas.

Unfortunately, I don't think the NOAA tower data for Camp Creek is reliable right now. I have suspected that for a year or two. Seems to be recording wind gusts too low. Because of the tower height and open field at the base of the mountain, it has always recorded higher than other stations in the area. That changed over the past year or two. I kind of confirmed that for myself last event. I went out there, and the tower only record gusts in the 50s while I was there. It felt significantly stronger than 50mph while I was there. Other weather stations recorded 60-70mph around that same time, which seems more in line with my estimates. I have a pretty good idea what a 70mph gust should feel like at this point, so the NOAA tower only recording in the 50s just didn't seem correct. I can't say for certain if it's always unreliable, but I'll probably have to rely on PWS's for wind data in the area.

 

[Dsty2001]

My Sister from another mother said she passed through Camp Creek earlier and it was howling like a hurricane

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC(beware....WxBell has not updated...use TT) has the overrunning event and the 6z GFS pretty much has it but with less frozen precip.  I think the setup is there late next week on modeling again this morning.  It just doesn't have the great looking clown maps.  But the set-up is there.  The Euro is not on board at this time.  It has a couple of shots of precip into the eastern Plains and that is it.  The GFS and CMC push the cold further SE.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Ill begin building the ark

The means, the means for the CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles for the TN valley river systems are from 4.5 - 6.5 inches. I think flamingo man riding his floaty in front of the fellini Kroger was pretty much peak flood action in Knoxvegas in 2019. I think I was looking at the means that far out that year, so I'm going to go dredge up those posts and see how that looked. But lordy the 6z GFS gave me flashbacks with where the firehose was aimed. And it wasn't at fantasy range: 

 

[Carvers Gap]

We have very cold air about to interact with the firehose.  I don't claim to know where this interaction will occur over the East, but it looks like that likelihood is growing.

[PowellVolz]

The means, the means for the CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles for the TN valley river systems are from 4.5 - 6.5 inches. I think flamingo man riding his floaty in front of the fellini Kroger was pretty much peak flood action in Knoxvegas in 2019. I think I was looking at the means that far out that year, so I'm going to go dredge up those posts and see how that looked. But lordy the 6z GFS gave me flashbacks with where the firehose was aimed. And it wasn't at fantasy range: 
 

I was driving through there when he was riding that down 1st creek.

February 2011 was when the worst flash flooding I’ve ever seen hit Knoxville.


.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS feels like Memphis hasn’t had enough ice for this season!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Maybe we can get some ice rafts going on the floods? I'll volunteer to buy the flamingo guy an orca floaty. 

12z GFS

[Carvers Gap]

Man, the 12z CMC shows super frozen set-up.  With the firehose on....the cold is going to cause problems if it gets southeast far enough.  

[Stovepipe]

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The means, the means for the CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles for the TN valley river systems are from 4.5 - 6.5 inches. I think flamingo man riding his floaty in front of the fellini Kroger was pretty much peak flood action in Knoxvegas in 2019. I think I was looking at the means that far out that year, so I'm going to go dredge up those posts and see how that looked. But lordy the 6z GFS gave me flashbacks with where the firehose was aimed. And it wasn't at fantasy range: 

 

Fellini Kroger has it's own Twitter account lol.

https://twitter.com/FelliniKroger

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Gfs not backing down on the moisture over next week.