Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[PowellVolz]

Man the wind is absolutely ripping it.


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[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the wind will be still here and then it shakes the house.  We have had some huge gusts today.  Looks like the airport had a gust up to 38mph today.  I would guess the ones IMBY were strong.  You could hear the wind whistling through the cracks in our window(and they are updated window).  I have never heard wind forcing into our windows like that.

18z GFS has the storm for western TN again...creeping eastward ever so slightly.

[Carvers Gap]

Any of our posters in Sevier Co have to deal with that fire this evening?  I am assuming the rain is going to end that event thankfully!

https://www.wvlt.tv/2022/02/18/evacuation-ordered-due-fast-moving-brush-fire-pigeon-forge/

 

[PowellVolz]

Went out to start my Jeep at 6:15 and it was snowing. I’m on the east side of Knox Co now and there’s a sleet shower. Pretty good one too.


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[PowellVolz]

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[Wintersnow888]

Got a dusting overnight, just started snowing again here a half hour ago almost an inch what a surprise

[Wintersnow888]

Nothing on radar

[Daniel Boone]

Lt. Dusting here with very small flakes falling.

[Shocker0]

Couple of pics from this mornings travels in Western Cumberland. Some areas would be white with heavy little snow showers coming down, and others a couple football fields away there would be just a very light dusting almost like frost. The varying little climates around here are wild.

 

[John1122]

5 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Couple of pics from this mornings travels in Western Cumberland. Some areas would be white with heavy little snow showers coming down, and others a couple football fields away there would be just a very light dusting almost like frost. The varying little climates around here are wild.

 

That's how it is here too. Even the mountain tops will have 1/2 mile of snow cover, then little or nothing then more snow cover. 

[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

That's how it is here too. Even the mountain tops will have 1/2 mile of snow cover, then little or nothing then more snow cover. 

Yeah, I have started riding around here when it snows more to try to see a pattern in it, and there honestly seems to be one generally. It's a sure bet that Pleasant Hill and Mayland will almost always receive more snow than the rest of the county unless it's just a big system that stays on the eastern or southern county edges.

The confusing part for me is that our area is a lot flatter than yours, and these patches of deeper snow that appear here don't seem to be elevation driven or anything. Most of the spots I saw this morning with big differences were pretty close to each other and almost equal elevation. There was one spot in particular where the entire road had a light dusting, but 1/4 mile in one little area at the same elevation, the ground had around an inch. 

It's fascinating to me after driving around the last couple snows, though. I can definitely see the eastern half of Cumberland County wondering why there's no school a lot of days, while the far Western areas are wondering how other days they DO have school despite snow on the ground and slick spots around. I'm sure your area is probably similar with your area getting more snow than La Follette usually.

I wouldn't be surprised if some isolated areas on the far western side of the county (Pleasant Hill/Mayland) right before the Plateau drops off have received 2 feet of snow this winter. I also wouldn't be surprised if areas around Westel (Southeast Cumberland) have gotten less than 10" total for the year. I need get a dash camera and drive around after a snow when I'm able because since I've done that a couple times this year I have been amazed at how difference even 1/2 mile makes here when it snows, even without any noticeable elevation changes. If it's like that here where it's relatively flat, I figure in eastern TN with the valley's and ridges that it would be even more pronounced.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

11 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Yeah, I have started riding around here when it snows more to try to see a pattern in it, and there honestly seems to be one generally. It's a sure bet that Pleasant Hill and Mayland will almost always receive more snow than the rest of the county unless it's just a big system that stays on the eastern or southern county edges.

The confusing part for me is that our area is a lot flatter than yours, and these patches of deeper snow that appear here don't seem to be elevation driven or anything. Most of the spots I saw this morning with big differences were pretty close to each other and almost equal elevation. There was one spot in particular where the entire road had a light dusting, but 1/4 mile in one little area at the same elevation, the ground had around an inch. 

It's fascinating to me after driving around the last couple snows, though. I can definitely see the eastern half of Cumberland County wondering why there's no school a lot of days, while the far Western areas are wondering how other days they DO have school despite snow on the ground and slick spots around. I'm sure your area is probably similar with your area getting more snow than La Follette usually.

I wouldn't be surprised if some isolated areas on the far western side of the county (Pleasant Hill/Mayland) right before the Plateau drops off have received 2 feet of snow this winter. I also wouldn't be surprised if areas around Westel (Southeast Cumberland) have gotten less than 10" total for the year. I need get a dash camera and drive around after a snow when I'm able because since I've done that a couple times this year I have been amazed at how difference even 1/2 mile makes here when it snows, even without any noticeable elevation changes. If it's like that here where it's relatively flat, I figure in eastern TN with the valley's and ridges that it would be even more pronounced.

Quick thought: I wonder if there is a sort of  funnel that is created by the extensions of the plateau, that helps focus lift, if the wind is NW/ NNW:

[Daniel Boone]

42 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Quick thought: I wonder if there is a sort of  funnel that is created by the extensions of the plateau, that helps focus lift, if the wind is NW/ NNW:

Yeah, does pique the interest. Probably is enhanced be the angle of the Valley between those ridges going up to Monterey. You can visualize how that would probably enhance the heavier "streak" if you will, through there. Sort of a concentrated upward funnel of moisture transport.

[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Quick thought: I wonder if there is a sort of  funnel that is created by the extensions of the plateau, that helps focus lift, if the wind is NW/ NNW:

 

Honestly, that arrow south of Monterey does correspond where most of the heavier snowfall accumulations occur during the majority of events (especially the smaller or unexpected ones like last night). I'll try to draw a highlighted map around roads/areas I've traveled that seem to overperform almost every time in these situations and post it here. I am hoping to keep traveling through the same areas when it snows to see the pattern. There is one particular area in Cumberland Cove (SE of Monterey right in the path of your arrow) that the second picture I posted above is from that has had noticeably more snow than areas 1/2 mile away the last two times I've been through there and I find that very interesting with the elevation being fairly consistent with the areas around it (maybe 50ft higher).

[Wintersnow888]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Quick thought: I wonder if there is a sort of  funnel that is created by the extensions of the plateau, that helps focus lift, if the wind is NW/ NNW:

Have often wondered that myself.....I live in my grandparents' house that I inherited, and it sits on my  great-grandparents' land ( the old house is long gone), but often heard stories growing up about the big snows and how there wouldn't be any snow in town sometimes , or just a dusting. BTW, I live in the Mayland area just below your arrow. My Papaw always said that it was the elevation , since we are several hundred feet higher ....but it seems that something else is at play since as Shocker0 said , the differences even around here are noticable

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Yeah, I have started riding around here when it snows more to try to see a pattern in it, and there honestly seems to be one generally. It's a sure bet that Pleasant Hill and Mayland will almost always receive more snow than the rest of the county unless it's just a big system that stays on the eastern or southern county edges.

The confusing part for me is that our area is a lot flatter than yours, and these patches of deeper snow that appear here don't seem to be elevation driven or anything. Most of the spots I saw this morning with big differences were pretty close to each other and almost equal elevation. There was one spot in particular where the entire road had a light dusting, but 1/4 mile in one little area at the same elevation, the ground had around an inch. 

It's fascinating to me after driving around the last couple snows, though. I can definitely see the eastern half of Cumberland County wondering why there's no school a lot of days, while the far Western areas are wondering how other days they DO have school despite snow on the ground and slick spots around. I'm sure your area is probably similar with your area getting more snow than La Follette usually.

I wouldn't be surprised if some isolated areas on the far western side of the county (Pleasant Hill/Mayland) right before the Plateau drops off have received 2 feet of snow this winter. I also wouldn't be surprised if areas around Westel (Southeast Cumberland) have gotten less than 10" total for the year. I need get a dash camera and drive around after a snow when I'm able because since I've done that a couple times this year I have been amazed at how difference even 1/2 mile makes here when it snows, even without any noticeable elevation changes. If it's like that here where it's relatively flat, I figure in eastern TN with the valley's and ridges that it would be even more pronounced.

Yes, it wasn't an elevation thing here either. The same elevation had both bare spots and snow on the ground in spots right beside each other. It was like tiny areas a mile or so wide had heavier snow than areas on either side of it. It was that way along a good 10-15 mile stretch of Cumberland Mtn. I've never seen that here before. 

[Shocker0]

This is a rough estimation of how snow is typically distributed here based on my limited experiences driving around the western part of the county. I know the map is extremely rough, but based on this overlay I wouldn't be surprised if Holston's theory is correct. On the other hand, Jamestown, 30 miles north of me, and around 1750ft, seems to get even more snow than these areas do a fair amount of the time, but I hardly ever am up there so I can only go off pictures/measurements. I know Jamestown is very close to the very edge of the Western part of the Plateau so my theory of the snow smacking into the plateau before weaker amounts spread east could be a thing. Oneida and John's area of Campbell County east of Jamestown seem to get similar snow amounts to Jamestown though, so maybe not. However, traveling just 10 miles south of Jamestown to Grimsley, you almost always see the amounts halved sometimes from what Jamestown gets, despite Grimsley having almost identical elevation.

I know in Crossville, the further you go east, the less snow there is during any upslope events or where the atmosphere is ringing out whatever moisture is left, but it doesn't seem to be as significant from Jamestown and eastward. Renegade Mountain in Crab Orchard, east of Crossville, is around 3000ft, and I'm quite sure the Mayland/Monterey/Pleasant Hill areas in the western part of the county average more annual snowfall despite the elevation difference (I might be wrong but I rarely see any snow pictures from there and they when I do they seem more comparable to the in town areas of Crossville).

 

Anyway, on this very ugly map, I've shaded roughly these varying colors based on who seems to typically get the most snow:

No shading - never really traveled through these areas

1. White-ish shading - Isolated locations that seem to get noticeably more snow than other areas typically

2. Yellow - Second snowiest areas. There may be no snow in purple areas, and 1" in the red, while the yellow areas have 2-4 inches. I have noticed this when traveling west on Plateau Rd, and turning right toward Mayland on Highway 70 North. Suddenly it's like the snow just starts out of nowhere there and adds up quick.

3. Red - Third snowiest areas. Usually tend to get the same as the yellow areas but during smaller events it seems like the yellow areas get more fairly consistently.

4. Purple - fourth most snowfall. Pretty wide brush through central Cumberland and Southern Fentress on this one.

5. Blue areas - where you really can see there be nothing on the ground and 2+ inches in other places to the west in just short drives. This includes Crossville proper. The areas west of Monterey probably should be a different color because they get even less snow since the plateau drops off there, but I put them blue anyway.

I need to make a better map but the funnel effect really could be a thing in this case. Specific places I've noticed consistently heavier snow than other areas would be the south side of Cumberland Cove (just west of the Mayland text) at about 1990ft. And then the Pleasant Hill area in general, especially driving down Mayland Rd (almost exactly where Holston's arrow points). Then there are a couple of areas on Bud Tanner Rd east of Mayland Rd and only at around 1800ft that seem to get a lot of snow that seems unexplainable compared to the surrounding spots.

 

 

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

This is a rough estimation of how snow is typically distributed here based on my limited experiences driving around the western part of the county. I know the map is extremely rough, but based on this overlay I wouldn't be surprised if Holston's theory is correct. On the other hand, Jamestown, 30 miles north of me, and around 1750ft, seems to get even more snow than these areas do a fair amount of the time, but I hardly ever am up there so I can only go off pictures/measurements. I know Jamestown is very close to the very edge of the Western part of the Plateau so my theory of the snow smacking into the plateau before weaker amounts spread east could be a thing. Oneida and John's area of Campbell County east of Jamestown seem to get similar snow amounts to Jamestown though, so maybe not. However, traveling just 10 miles south of Jamestown to Grimsley, you almost always see the amounts halved sometimes from what Jamestown gets, despite Grimsley having almost identical elevation.

I know in Crossville, the further you go east, the less snow there is during any upslope events or where the atmosphere is ringing out whatever moisture is left, but it doesn't seem to be as significant from Jamestown and eastward. Renegade Mountain in Crab Orchard, east of Crossville, is around 3000ft, and I'm quite sure the Mayland/Monterey/Pleasant Hill areas in the western part of the county average more annual snowfall despite the elevation difference (I might be wrong but I rarely see any snow pictures from there and they when I do they seem more comparable to the in town areas of Crossville).

 

Anyway, on this very ugly map, I've shaded roughly these varying colors based on who seems to typically get the most snow:

No shading - never really traveled through these areas

1. White-ish shading - Isolated locations that seem to get noticeably more snow than other areas typically

2. Yellow - Second snowiest areas. There may be no snow in purple areas, and 1" in the red, while the yellow areas have 2-4 inches. I have noticed this when traveling west on Plateau Rd, and turning right toward Mayland on Highway 70 North. Suddenly it's like the snow just starts out of nowhere there and adds up quick.

3. Red - Third snowiest areas. Usually tend to get the same as the yellow areas but during smaller events it seems like the yellow areas get more fairly consistently.

4. Purple - fourth most snowfall. Pretty wide brush through central Cumberland and Southern Fentress on this one.

5. Blue areas - where you really can see there be nothing on the ground and 2+ inches in other places to the west in just short drives. This includes Crossville proper. The areas west of Monterey probably should be a different color because they get even less snow since the plateau drops off there, but I put them blue anyway.

I need to make a better map but the funnel effect really could be a thing in this case. Specific places I've noticed consistently heavier snow than other areas would be the south side of Cumberland Cove (just west of the Mayland text) at about 1990ft. And then the Pleasant Hill area in general, especially driving down Mayland Rd (almost exactly where Holston's arrow points). Then there are a couple of areas on Bud Tanner Rd east of Mayland Rd and only at around 1800ft that seem to get a lot of snow that seems unexplainable compared to the surrounding spots.

 

 

 

I believe that sometimes just being further north helps. Jamestown/Oneida and my area are about the same latitude and similar in Elevation. I know that 1200 feet in Campbell County gets more snow than 1200 feet in Knox County as a rule and 1200 feet in S Kentucky gets more than 1200 in Campbell. 

[BlunderStorm]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 

I believe that sometimes just being further north helps. Jamestown/Oneida and my area are about the same latitude and similar in Elevation. I know that 1200 feet in Campbell County gets more snow than 1200 feet in Knox County as a rule and 1200 feet in S Kentucky gets more than 1200 in Campbell. 

Relative elevation as well as the orientation of the mountains also plays a major role. While I may be roughly 350' higher and at the 37th parallel, living in a river valley puts my annual snowfall totals beneath yours consistently.

[John1122]

12 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Relative elevation as well as the orientation of the mountains also plays a major role. While I may be roughly 350' higher and at the 37th parallel, living in a river valley puts my annual snowfall totals beneath yours consistently.

Yes, downsloping is huge for NE TN and SW VA. I get 20 inches more precipitation a year than some areas over your way. 

[Shocker0]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

 

I believe that sometimes just being further north helps. Jamestown/Oneida and my area are about the same latitude and similar in Elevation. I know that 1200 feet in Campbell County gets more snow than 1200 feet in Knox County as a rule and 1200 feet in S Kentucky gets more than 1200 in Campbell. 

Agree, Monterey sits at the same elevation as the town of Crossville but isn't uncommon for them to get double the snow in some years. About 15 miles NW of Crossville though.

[John1122]

GFS and Euro both are trying for a storm at the end of the month. Major ice storm for NW Tn and NE Arkansas before this one. 0z Euro is a little weaker and more suppressed than the 12z GFS.

[nrgjeff]

If that's a true Gap near Monterey the one would expect convergence downstream for Maryland and Pleasant Hill. White zone on the chart could also benefit from upslope on the Rim.

However the convergence lee of the Gap is probably the bigger driver, at least it appears so by scale and the yellow area. Directional convergence just part of it. Bernoulli Effect should accelerate air through the Gap. Air runs into slower moving air lee side, and more convergence is created. All this is hypotheses based on fluid theory. Wind observations could test and confirm. 

Microclimates always interest me. Good stuff!

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

If that's a true Gap near Monterey the one would expect convergence downstream for Maryland and Pleasant Hill. White zone on the chart could also benefit from upslope on the Rim.

However the convergence lee of the Gap is probably the bigger driver, at least it appears so by scale and the yellow area. Directional convergence just part of it. Bernoulli Effect should accelerate air through the Gap. Air runs into slower moving air lee side, and more convergence is created. All this is hypotheses based on fluid theory. Wind observations could test and confirm. 

Microclimates always interest me. Good stuff!

 Excellent analysis and well presented as usual Jeff.

[Daniel Boone]

15 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Relative elevation as well as the orientation of the mountains also plays a major role. While I may be roughly 350' higher and at the 37th parallel, living in a river valley puts my annual snowfall totals beneath yours consistently.

Yeah, same irt this area although annual precip avgs a bit more as Lee County averages 45 to 55 inches annually. More Mountain tops of course. Western end near Cumberland gap highest Valley range. Central, lowest.

      Snowfall as is case with where u are on average, 14 to 45 " annually with more Mountain tops. The high end being Northern Lee , the Keokee area on the western arm of the Wise Plateau, as it's pegged in the area. As u can see, much more on the Wise plateau in northern Lee and portions of Wise and Russell Co.  I.e., Wise, Norton,Lebanon and Honaker. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

GFS and Euro both are trying for a storm at the end of the month. Major ice storm for NW Tn and NE Arkansas before this one. 0z Euro is a little weaker and more suppressed than the 12z GFS.

Yeah, a fairly nice signal showing up.  

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the Euro Kuchera

 

[John1122]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the Euro Kuchera

 

I hadn't had time to look at the Euro. That's a beautiful look, and would really cap off winter for some of us and save it some for others. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I hadn't had time to look at the Euro. That's a beautiful look, and would really cap off winter for some of us and save it some for others. 

The control FTW?  Also, the EPS has the event.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I should note that the control is just the one storm.  I posted the entire run, but the only snow is the one storm for the most part.