Winter 2021/2022 February Thread

[AMZ8990]

February discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum.  When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm.  It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc.  Hope everyone is doing well.  

[John1122]

Western areas are looking at a potentially crippling ice event.  The first half of February, if the MJO does work through the COD into Ph 3, should provide opportunity for continued cold/frozen chances into the mid-month at least. Super charged cold vs a SE Ridge like last February is possible, though PH 3 actually shows up as nearly nationwide BN winter temps. That tells me you see what models are showing. Cold builds in the west and rolls east rather than getting hung up anywhere. 

The QBO also remains deeply negative. Around -26 at 30mb. That's one of the lowest winter readings of the last 30 years. 

I know I've had it better than most this year,  with right at 20 inches of snow this month and there's been at least some snow on the ground all but around 4 days this month. My mom, who is in her early 70s, remarked that this reminds her of winters when she grew up, a good portion of which were the late 50s and 1960s. Legendary Tennessee winters. Those winters usually featured some big hitters in February and even March. 

[John1122]

GFS continues honking low road systems in the extended. The Euro is another big time ice event in a few days. It's further South and East again this run vs 12z. It's looking like it won't cut the Apps at all. 

[John1122]

UKIE is a monster winter storm for most of the forum. I believe this is mostly ice or sleet other than West Tennessee/Arkansas.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If you thought one vort in the southwest was complicated, the 6z GFS and 0z Euro give you three trying to kick out around hour 150:

 

 

That is a very tricky pattern if it happens. At one point on the Euro there are 5 different vorts interacting with that southwest trough:

[PowellVolz]

Feels like we are about to head back into our typical winter roller coaster pattern. Warm up, rain, cold front, backside flurries. Hopefully we can hit on a ULL slider before the season is over. Once we hit March I’m ready for spring.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GFS is certainly cold looking past this week. I feel like there is just a bit of can kicking going on though, so we'll see. Hopefully western forum areas can escape the ice threat later this week. 

It made a couple of attempts at phases, but both missed. The second one was a pretty impressive miss though:

[John1122]

The Canadian took a step towards the Euro with the midweek system. Hopefully the Euro keeps up the S/E jogs. 

[Carvers Gap]

From WxSouth on FB:

The period I'm particularly watching is about February 10th on to about the 20th. The timing could be off either way, but the confidence in this pattern type is high. The Canadian and American models do build up the western ridge, just off the West Coast, to the point its the driver across North America (really the biggest ridge anomaly in the Hemisphere this Winter). It does relax over the next week to 10 days, hence, our relaxation and warming trend in the Southeast. But similar to what happened in 2013-14 and 2014-15 Winters, it builds again, very, very strongly. That huge west ridge is a synoptic warning sign of sorts. It indicates plenty of cold air dropping over the top of the ridge. This time, a split flow even shows up underneath, and there's not shortage of storm systems cruising across the Deep South, bringing precip from Texas to the Carolinas. In fact, the Southeast looks very active much of February with system after system moving through. Not all will be a Winter storm---but odds are high one or more will be a hit in some areas, very far to the South.

[Carvers Gap]

I concur with Robert's remarks from WxSouth.  We had begun that conversation at the end of the old January thread.  The pattern will very likely be active, and it looks very cold after this brief warm-up.  Huge bonus considering what modeling had shown originally which was a warm pattern and a break to spring.  Now, it looks like a legit winter wx pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

This is a look which is found on the GEPS and also to some extent on the EPS.  This is very similar to the look which signaled the blizzard that just took place along the eastern seaboard.  Talked to my sister-in-law in NE Maine.  They had gusts to 77mph and 18" of snow.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS is less enthused about colder temps, but the 500 pattern looks really good.  The CFS seasonal is now cold for February.  Usually the last runs of the previous month carry significant weight.  I think the pattern after the cutter through maybe even the end of the month looks very good.  

[John1122]

The Euro folded to the GFS for the most part, for the mid-week system. Will have to see if it maintains that or not. But it went from a major winter storm at 12z and 0z to nada today.

[Carvers Gap]

The system I am watching is the one after the cutter.  On both the GFS and EPS, a system takes the low road next weekend.  It would be a minor/moderate event if it holds...  That time frame is next Sunday into Monday.  It is not a slam dunk.  As we have seen on modeling, those bone dry patterns at LR have been shown to have systems embedded like yesterday.   The CFS Feb look (see temps above) has AN precip for Feb.   The week after this upcoming one has potential.

The good thing about the Euro folding to the GFS....seems like the GFS has been able to handle storms on medium/LR modeling better than the Euro.  

 

[Daniel Boone]

Anyone remember back in December when most were calling for a canonical nina February.?. I had my suspicions and alluded to the possibility of a 1971-72 and 74-75 type. 

     There was a major arctic outbreak mid Feb. 72 followed by a major Snowstorm. 

     Feb. 75 featured cold and Snow deep into the SE with most snow to our south and east. However, a Snowstorm occured in parts of our area in early March.

    Not particularly great analogues in all respects but, possible similar outcomes.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Anyone remember back in December when most were calling for a canonical nina February.?. I had my suspicions and alluded to the possibility of a 1971-72 and 74-75 type. 

     There was a major arctic outbreak mid Feb. 72 followed by a major Snowstorm. 

     Feb. 75 featured cold and Snow deep into the SE with most snow to our south and east. However, a Snowstorm occured in parts of our area in early March.

    Not particularly great analogues in all respects but, possible similar outcomes.

I remember that.  You have been on your game!

[Carvers Gap]

Modeling still appears to be on track for a reloading of the cold pattern(it is actually still cold...just referring to the brief warm-up to begin Feb).  The first week of Feb has generally been a non-starter for me.  The fact that we are potentially looking at another winter storm for west TN during that time frame is a bonus(if one actually wants to call ice a bonus!).

The second and third weeks of February is the bonus window in my book.  No way to really talk about details this far out, but the pattern looks like a potential producer.  That could change as we are still 7-8 days from that reload of the cold/stormy pattern.  Without getting into a ton of detail, I will just say that time frame (maybe even extending to the end of Feb) looks good.  What is being depicted is a continuation of a base cold pattern.  TRI will almost certainly end up BN for January, and that will likely include four straight weeks of BN temps from Jan 4th-31st.  That warm December was distant memory yesterday morning when I took a run at Sequoyah Hills Park in Knoxville with wind chills hovering around 12 degrees as a brisk breeze hustled off the Tennessee River.  

While the snow originally modeled for the Jan20-30th timeframe certainly didn't deliver for many in the E TN valleys...the cold certainly did.  February is starting to have that look as well, BUT while January can often have dry spells...February is almost the opposite.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS has picked up on the weekend system.  It is nuisance variety stuff.  It also kind of doubled down on the potential icing situation in the western forum area for mid/late week.  Comparison slides...18z vs 12z GFS.

Midweek system:

Next weekend:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Afternoon disco from the NWS Memphis:

By Wednesday Night into Thursday, the cold front will begin to sink
into the Mid-South as a SFC low pressure develops across Texas and
tracks northeastward. A second wave of precipitation is expected to
occur as the SFC low moves northeastward and an upper trough moves
into the region. Arctic air will also be plunging into the region
behind the front. The big question remains on how far south the
front will be as the SFC low tracks northeastward along the front
into the Mid-South. The 12Z GFS is much further north with the
front than the previous run. However, looking at the GFS ensembles
19 of the 30 members show arctic air impinging through at least
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by 12Z Thursday. The
Canadian is further south with the frontal position by 12Z
Thursday. The 12Z ECMWF is somewhere between. Behind the front,
there may remain a warm layer just above the surface to produce a
freezing rain scenario across this region. If the front is further
south or the arctic air is much deeper, freezing rain may turn
over to sleet. These transition zones will likely move from west
to east on Thursday as the front sags southeast. Still too early
to pinpoint exact precip types and amounts until there is more
confidence in where the front will be exactly located. However, do
think there is a potential for ice and sleet accumulations to
occur somewhere in the CWA. Precipitation may change to snow
briefly before precipitation cuts off.

Arctic high pressure will build into the region behind the system.
Locations that receive winter accumulations will likely see
temperatures struggle to get above freezing at least on Friday.
Lows will be in the teens and 20s.

[Carvers Gap]

I mentioned a cool potential analog connection  in the January thread, and am going to place part of it here just to test it.  I am also seeing some memories from friends playing in the snow in 2014 pop-up on social media.  

I noted that I file away times when it snows in Jerusalem.  I won't repeat the same post.  However, it did snow knee high to a giraffe in Jerusalem during December of 2013.  Just this past week, heavy snows fell in the Middle East again.   Snow in Jerusalem is not as rare as some news agencies make it out to be.  It is at elevation and gets its share at times.  Northern Israel around Hermon gets regular, annual snowfall.  So, I compared the wx maps in the US from December 2013 to modeling for February of 2022.  Today is just an extension of that.  

 

This is the 12z CFSv2.  Uncanny the resemblance to December of 2013.  They look like copies.

 

 

When Israel received huge snows during 2013, this is what the map over the US looked like.  It is almost a carbon copy of the map above.

 

 

This is what followed in the US that winter.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Sever ice event is back on the 6z GFS for middle and west TN.

[Weathertree2]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sever ice event is back on the 6z GFS for middle and west TN.

The thing that is concerning to me is that the GFS has been creeping the line of ice slowly south with each run while other models have been showing it for a few days now 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the 12z GFS is amped for the weekend system, but the CMC/ICON are not at all.  ICON has a an interesting setup.

[Carvers Gap]

Really though, the ~Feb10-20th timeframe looks like our shot...and then we climb towards spring.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro with a system similar to the ICON for this upcoming weekend.  If we actually blended the GFS/Euro, that would be a nice solution.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS is also more formidable or the Thursday system with the potential for ZR to sweep across most of the state behind a powerful cold front.  The 12z GEFS does "see" the storm for this weekend, and it is not a cutter like the operational.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS is also more formidable or the Thursday system with the potential for ZR to sweep across most of the state behind a powerful cold front.  The 12z GEFS does "see" the storm for this weekend, and it is not a cutter like the operational.

The GFS just super amps everything this year. It's like the NAM. It tended to do that when it was the para. It amps these storms and shows 20 and 30 inch snowfall totals over large areas. So I don't really trust it's handling of the weekend system as of now. Ironically, as soon as the Euro and UK went to it's solution for mid-week, it started trending towards their prior solutions.

[nrgjeff]

ECMWF has much less frozen QPF out there vs GFS forever overrunning. Hopefully the Euro wins this one - impactful but not GFS major. At any rate this'll probably be my only post this week as work gets exceptionally busy.

ECMWF weeklies are out and trend with CFS/GEFS weeklies. Cold through the middle of Feb. Too bad we can't buy a proper storm track or temperature profile. Perfect compliment to my sports weekend!

[Carvers Gap]

Man, the 18z GFS just folded big time to the 12z Euro and 12z CMC.  We are now tracking a low to our SE for the weekend.  It may result in absolutely nothing, but it isn't a cutter.  That is a clean pass.

@nrgjeffThat TX loss...oof.  Great comeback, but felt like watching a storm hammer the NC side of the apps, and not make it across.  Almost there, but things went sideways at the last second.  Wait, I have done that too!

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS just super amps everything this year. It's like the NAM. It tended to do that when it was the para. It amps these storms and shows 20 and 30 inch snowfall totals over large areas. So I don't really trust it's handling of the weekend system as of now. Ironically, as soon as the Euro and UK went to it's solution for mid-week, it started trending towards their prior solutions.

Yeah, it definitely has some DGEX DNA in it for sure.  Right on time...it folds completely for the weekend.  What is crazy, it has been eerily accurate at the d14-16 range though.