OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022

[wx_observer]

Super-fine powder in Worcester…about an inch so far.  I was really hoping to wake up to that orangey looking night sky that happens when the light pollution from the city illuminates the clouds during storms like this, but no dice so far.  Nice band showing up on radar backing in towards I-90 / I-395.

Hopefully we can now collectively move past the angst of model rollercoasters and sit back and enjoy what looks to be a satisfying storm for most of the region!  A few weeks ago most of us would have been giddy at 6“ 

Happy blizzard day!

[TalcottWx]

None of the on air Mets backing down on extreme totals this morning. 

[8611Blizz]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

None of the on air Mets backing down on extreme totals this morning. 

I haven't read everything lately, is there a reason they would?

[TalcottWx]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

I haven't read everything lately, is there a reason they would?

There was a lot of struggle with modeling on this as recently as this morning. When multiple models all get on to that idea at once, it's hard to ignore as dendrite said yesterday. With that being said, upper air analysis is ideal for a classic. The solutions that didn't show as much snow were weird. They might be wrong. So many on here thought it was a red flag, but Harvey, all Boston Mets remained bullish. 

[TalcottWx]

[Henry's Weather]

23 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Here is the most recent hrrr 

Ay caramba. It's on baby

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hayden Frank lives there . I see his tweets. 
Radar looks pretty sweet. You can see the band developing now 

Well hopefully he will get some legit measurements.

[Henry's Weather]

Point and click has 17-23 inches of new snow accumulation during the day.... I'm speechless and blessed.

[TalcottWx]

I have about 3" estimated 5a. Going to be conservative with measuremets today. It was nearly impossible to measure this type of storm in 2005. 

Interesting to note that box thought I would be near that total for a couple more hours. 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Ay caramba. It's on baby

I'm banking on a 495 band. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

In the teens now, 19F with snow. 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm banking on a 495 band. 

You'll probably get it, man. 

[Henry's Weather]

Latest HRRR has a +24.2" snow depth increase for Boston, which is a reasonable compromise between 10:1 and KUCHERA

[WeathergeekMD]

(Madison CT) It’s been switching between pixie dust snow and sudden bursts of moderate regular snow as the waves of heavier snow seem to be flirting with the shoreline. Accumulation rates have varied between about  1”/hr and 1/4” / hr 

winds have been light with some gusts but it’s starting to gust much more and  I’m noticing some drifting at the corners of the house. Measuring will need multiple spots pretty soon.  (Just brewing coffee so multiple measures not “needed” just yet)
 

4.25” and 23F (down 4 in the last two hours) light snow, gusty winds now. 

[TalcottWx]

Oh man. Radar looks great. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Oh man. Radar looks great. 

yup nice band forming in eastern ct think that keeps heading west in the next few hours fun day ahead

[TalcottWx]

I already have blowing and drifting. This is going to be insane today. 

2005 was not day time. It's a real treat that we will get to watch this with the sun up. 

[Hoth]

Nice wintry appeal out, with occasional gusts. Kind of a curiously uniform radar presentation. I mean sure you can see some banding, but I expected to see some heavier returns south of Long Island with a storm of this size. No death bands in evidence as yet anywhere. Perhaps convection is in fact robbing us of some dynamics?

[TalcottWx]

BOOOM! 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Nice wintry appeal out, with occasional gusts. Kind of a curiously uniform radar presentation. I mean sure you can see some banding, but I expected to see some heavier returns south of Long Island with a storm of this size. No death bands in evidence as yet anywhere. Perhaps convection is in fact robbing us of some dynamics?

looking at radar scope one seems to be forming in eastern ct  to nw RI?

[Boston Bulldog]

Not seeing too much evidence of a dumbbell at this hour

[moneypitmike]

I hate trying to describe snow rates at night.....

BUT......I believe it's pounding here at the moment.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I hate trying to describe snow rates at night.....

BUT......I believe it's pounding here at the moment.

Pounding here too Mike. Visibility way down. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

looking at radar scope one seems to be forming in eastern ct  to nw RI?

Lol, just a nice cosmic dildo to Corey for cancelling his flight home.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

BOOOM! 

 

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I hate trying to describe snow rates at night.....

BUT......I believe it's pounding here at the moment.

 

LOL--that band that's just moving over the Pike 495 with the yellow dots in is approaching my house......I guess it is poudning.

[TalcottWx]

5 AM update...

*** Powerful multi facet winter storm w/near record snow, blizzard
conditions, near hurricane force wind gusts & coastal flooding ***

Highlights...

* Near record snowfall with a widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall in
  eastern MA & RI, along with blizzard conditions. Localized amounts
  up to 3 ft possible in this region

* Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times with
  possibility of thundersnow across eastern MA and RI. This will
  make travel very dangerous to nearly impossible

* Near hurricane force wind gusts are possible along the eastern MA
  coast, possibly resulting in power outages

Overview...

Explosive cyclogenesis underway with surface low down to about 989
mb at 09z east of the DE coast. Mid/upper level trough amplification
evident on satellite, with negative tilt and cooling cloud tops,
along with a classic baroclinic leaf signature. This will support
rapid deepening today and into this evening, with 00z guidance
indicating a sub 970 mb low just off the eastern MA coast at 00z
Sunday! This will be about a 35 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, from 00z
Sat to 00z Sun! Hence, meeting and surpassing bomb cyclone criteria.

Details...

Near record snowfall/extreme snowfall rates...

00z models have trended slightly farther west with qpf and slightly
heavier as well. Given storm intensity and rapid amplification along
with mid level low track over or just east of the eastern MA coast,
this trend seems reasonable. Very strong jet dynamics which includes
a dual upper level jet streak, combined with a moist/cold NE
conveyor belt up to 80 kt off the Atlantic into SNE, will provide a
firehose of abundant moisture, supporting a period of very heavy
snowfall from approximately 9 am to 4 pm. In addition, as dry slot
approaches eastern MA and RI this afternoon, model soundings
indicate a potential moist absolute unstable layer (MAUL) in this
area. This seems reasonable as approaching dry slot will help
steepen mid level lapse rates. All of the attributes listed above
support intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times, along with
thundersnow. Also, model/BUFKIT time sections indicate the bulk of
the lift is occurring in the snow growth region later this morning
and afternoon. This will yield SLR of 15-20 to 1. Therefore, an
upward trend in qpf, a shift slightly farther west and heavy snow
bands with high SLR, have resulted in slightly higher snow totals
from previous forecast, and slightly shifted west. Heaviest snow
(near record snow possible) will occur across RI into the Worcester
Hills, with 18-24" likely. In eastern MA, 24-30" is likely. These
higher totals in RI and the Worcester Hills will hinge on mesoscale
banding pivoting westward from eastern MA into RI & the Worcester
Hills.

These snow totals will be record or near record in many locations.
In addition, strong NE winds will result in snow drifts up to 4 ft
and possibly higher. Considerable blow and drifting along with near
zero vsby at times, will result in very dangerous to impossible
travel conditions late this morning and afternoon. In addition, with
temps falling through the teens and WCI at or below zero, this will
be a very dangerous situation for anyone becoming stranded on the
roads. Hence, don`t venture out if at all possible because it could
become a life-threatening situation.

Snow totals will decrease westward across CT (especially CT River
Valley westward) and west of the Worcester Hills in MA. Our snow
totals in northwest MA may have to be adjusted downward, as some
concern very cold/dry air advecting into that region (KAQW dew pt
currently 2F) may overwhelm the boundary layer, resulting in less
snowfall. Something we will be monitoring.

PTYPE and Snow Load...

Well defined coastal front already established, with north wind at
KBOS with a temp of 27F. Meanwhile, KGHG northeast wind and 34F. As
strong pressure falls approach from the south, this coastal front
will become more pronounced and begin to bleed southward. These
pressure falls will also cause rain early this morning across the
outer Cape and Nantucket, to flip over to snow between 7 am and 10
pm, as winds shift to the NNE and draws colder air southward. The
concern here is that there could be many hours of wet snow here,
increasing the weight of tree branches and limbs. This combined with
NE winds gusting as high as 65-75 mph from about 9 am to 4 pm, will
increase the risk of tree damage and power outages across Nantucket,
Cape Cod and possibly coastal Plymouth county. This delay in
changeover from rain to snow, will reduce snow totals to 12" to 18"
across the outer Cape and Nantucket.

Strong to Damaging winds...

As mentioned above, anomalous low level NE jet combined with steep
low level lapse rates, NNE winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 65-75
across Cape Cod and the Islands, including Cape Ann, will increase
the risk of tree damage and power outages. The greatest risk could
be across Cape Cod, the islands and coastal Plymouth county, as
heavy wet snow combines with these strong/damaging winds. In
addition, these very strong winds combined with snowfall rates of 2-
4" per hour at times, will yield blizzard conditions across RI and
eastern MA, with vsbys near zero at times. Even after the snow
tapers off early this evening, there will continue to be
considerable blowing and drifting snow.

[NeonPeon]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looking at radar scope one seems to be forming in eastern ct  to nw RI?

Absolutely. It seems to be forming in the place they always form. It's the oddest thing!

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

LOL--that band that's just moving over the Pike 495 with the yellow dots in is approaching my house......I guess it is poudning.

I think models blew this yesterday. Loo

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

5 AM update...

*** Powerful multi facet winter storm w/near record snow, blizzard
conditions, near hurricane force wind gusts & coastal flooding ***

Highlights...

* Near record snowfall with a widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall in
  eastern MA & RI, along with blizzard conditions. Localized amounts
  up to 3 ft possible in this region

* Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times with
  possibility of thundersnow across eastern MA and RI. This will
  make travel very dangerous to nearly impossible

* Near hurricane force wind gusts are possible along the eastern MA
  coast, possibly resulting in power outages

Overview...

Explosive cyclogenesis underway with surface low down to about 989
mb at 09z east of the DE coast. Mid/upper level trough amplification
evident on satellite, with negative tilt and cooling cloud tops,
along with a classic baroclinic leaf signature. This will support
rapid deepening today and into this evening, with 00z guidance
indicating a sub 970 mb low just off the eastern MA coast at 00z
Sunday! This will be about a 35 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, from 00z
Sat to 00z Sun! Hence, meeting and surpassing bomb cyclone criteria.

Details...

Near record snowfall/extreme snowfall rates...

00z models have trended slightly farther west with qpf and slightly
heavier as well. Given storm intensity and rapid amplification along
with mid level low track over or just east of the eastern MA coast,
this trend seems reasonable. Very strong jet dynamics which includes
a dual upper level jet streak, combined with a moist/cold NE
conveyor belt up to 80 kt off the Atlantic into SNE, will provide a
firehose of abundant moisture, supporting a period of very heavy
snowfall from approximately 9 am to 4 pm. In addition, as dry slot
approaches eastern MA and RI this afternoon, model soundings
indicate a potential moist absolute unstable layer (MAUL) in this
area. This seems reasonable as approaching dry slot will help
steepen mid level lapse rates. All of the attributes listed above
support intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times, along with
thundersnow. Also, model/BUFKIT time sections indicate the bulk of
the lift is occurring in the snow growth region later this morning
and afternoon. This will yield SLR of 15-20 to 1. Therefore, an
upward trend in qpf, a shift slightly farther west and heavy snow
bands with high SLR, have resulted in slightly higher snow totals
from previous forecast, and slightly shifted west. Heaviest snow
(near record snow possible) will occur across RI into the Worcester
Hills, with 18-24" likely. In eastern MA, 24-30" is likely. These
higher totals in RI and the Worcester Hills will hinge on mesoscale
banding pivoting westward from eastern MA into RI & the Worcester
Hills.

These snow totals will be record or near record in many locations.
In addition, strong NE winds will result in snow drifts up to 4 ft
and possibly higher. Considerable blow and drifting along with near
zero vsby at times, will result in very dangerous to impossible
travel conditions late this morning and afternoon. In addition, with
temps falling through the teens and WCI at or below zero, this will
be a very dangerous situation for anyone becoming stranded on the
roads. Hence, don`t venture out if at all possible because it could
become a life-threatening situation.

Snow totals will decrease westward across CT (especially CT River
Valley westward) and west of the Worcester Hills in MA. Our snow
totals in northwest MA may have to be adjusted downward, as some
concern very cold/dry air advecting into that region (KAQW dew pt
currently 2F) may overwhelm the boundary layer, resulting in less
snowfall. Something we will be monitoring.

PTYPE and Snow Load...

Well defined coastal front already established, with north wind at
KBOS with a temp of 27F. Meanwhile, KGHG northeast wind and 34F. As
strong pressure falls approach from the south, this coastal front
will become more pronounced and begin to bleed southward. These
pressure falls will also cause rain early this morning across the
outer Cape and Nantucket, to flip over to snow between 7 am and 10
pm, as winds shift to the NNE and draws colder air southward. The
concern here is that there could be many hours of wet snow here,
increasing the weight of tree branches and limbs. This combined with
NE winds gusting as high as 65-75 mph from about 9 am to 4 pm, will
increase the risk of tree damage and power outages across Nantucket,
Cape Cod and possibly coastal Plymouth county. This delay in
changeover from rain to snow, will reduce snow totals to 12" to 18"
across the outer Cape and Nantucket.

Strong to Damaging winds...

As mentioned above, anomalous low level NE jet combined with steep
low level lapse rates, NNE winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 65-75
across Cape Cod and the Islands, including Cape Ann, will increase
the risk of tree damage and power outages. The greatest risk could
be across Cape Cod, the islands and coastal Plymouth county, as
heavy wet snow combines with these strong/damaging winds. In
addition, these very strong winds combined with snowfall rates of 2-
4" per hour at times, will yield blizzard conditions across RI and
eastern MA, with vsbys near zero at times. Even after the snow
tapers off early this evening, there will continue to be
considerable blowing and drifting snow.

great write up! I still think this can push a bit west.. sharp cut off west of the river 

[NeonPeon]

The instability is great to watch on radar. Mesolows galore out to sea as everything blossoms.