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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a nice band Will.

Might be the best snow growth all day because the wind is lower now. Even when we had good growth this morning/midday, some of them were def getting shattered from high winds. But this is pure arctic fluff.

I might be able to fake my way to 18 with a layer of jspin cotton candy on top. (Ok a little bit of exaggeration since the wind is still blowing…just not as hard)

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Haven’t measured in a while but we’ve gotta be around 14-15ish now? I didn’t think we had a shot at 18 but I’d this band can stay parked for an hour then we have a chance.  This is legit 2-3” per hour stuff in the past 15 min. I’ll be outside again in a bit. 
 

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Well.... The RAP offers me 4 more inches before it is done. Will likely actually have to measure one more time.

So maybe if that can be realized, I won't feel as scammed by the models and QPF as I do right now.

When I measure later tonight, I am going to study an even larger area deeper in the field.

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13 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

If it is any consolation, I was thinking this too.  I feel like I saw way more snow fall than what verified on the ground.  

Based on Dube's thesis, it's a conditional function between ice crystal type (needled, dendrite, etc...) and maximum wind speed from the cloud base to the surface (Vmax in kt): https://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snowdensity/from_mm_to_cm.pdf

The algorithm is more complicated than Cobb and Waldstreicher's methodology (https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94815.htm), but Cobb and Waldstreicher does note the significance of fragmentation.

"The last step would be to account for the subcloud and surface processes of melting and fragmentation."

Generally, fragmentation can be broken up as,

Condition 1. Vmax < 5: No fragmentation

Condition 2. 15 = > Vmax > 5: Very slight fragmentation

Condition 3. 25 = > Vmax > 15: Slight fragmentation

Condition 4. Vmax > 25: Extensive fragmentation

More fragmentation == smaller SLR.

 

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