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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You post measurements, show rulers/ tape measures and then they still call you a liar . It’s part of the game I suppose .

 

How is your area faring?

I’m staying in a hotel at the Boston seaport, and it’s been near whiteout conditions for a couple hours at this point. Crazy stuff.

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19 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

What time is the main event supposed to end in Central Mass? If it keeps going as is until say 5 PM we might end up with a foot out of it here. Hard to tell with all the blowing what we have but I would guess somewhere in the 6 - 7 inch range. Good storm but nothing like what the coast is seeing. No complaints here.

First it has to begin

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go ahead and enjoy it, bc I'm smoking your exhaust. I enjoyed the hell outta 2/1 last year, while you rained. Its weather...you aren't harming my family :lol:

I should have stayed at work in Chelsea...probably get 2'

Ray if there was a safe way for you to come by my way right now, I would gladly invite you. Believe me. 

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Gray, ME. On shift with the Fire Department today. Been more windy here than I would have expected being off the coast. Very little accumulating anywhere, been snowing sideways all morning. Waiting for this big band to arrive off the coast

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This cyclone event is unusually tilted backward from surface to mid levels ...

That much is clearly exposed by balancing satellite and radar trends, against the current position of the surface low ...close to 40N/68W as of 1636Z (11:36 am).   Also...as Will ( thank you ) posted soundings from KISP indicating the 500 mb wind is SSE  ... west of that surface low, this thing is like one of those sloped tornadoes in the plains.

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Anyway... it's not a analog of that; just a metaphor. But you can sustain lift at all scales through a vertically stressed column as these kinds of small scale event (and today ) demonstrate. 

It's not normally how these works..some tilt yeah. But I suspect this is pushing this about as far as it really can - or one wonders...

The other aspect I noticed ..I wonder if we've all neglected the age old rule about BL resistance when it comes to low pressure tracking.  I think I see what happened ( or suspect as such ..).  When we go back several surface analysis, we find that an arctic front passed S of the south coast prior to dawn.  The low at that time was still around 71W/37 or so N ( or close to that - I didn't take precise look).  Then, two hours later, ...there was an apparent center jump ENE pretty much parallel to the arctic front.   Now as said, it's 40N by 67 W

It's nasty outside... It's not inundating like those western solutions.  The NAM has a bit of a NW bias with west Atlantic cyclone tracking of coastal storms.   The 700 mb and 500 mb surfaces are clear, per radar and satellite, very displaced west of that WPC sfc analysis.  These features in a less BL viscosity would like have pulled the surface center in tighter -

- this was never destined to capture and stack, not given these now-cast observations. I mean with all this intense cold air flooding seaward, and that arctic undercut.  This we're getting, it is a mid level snows storm falling through an arctic blast.  I don't think I heard or read any statements related to this factor obtruding the low levels and (possibly causing ...) the surface low to displace so far SE as abruptly as it did right around 13Z ...seems that it "bumped" for lack of better word, off the arctic wall

 

 

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Same…this really gets me to watch to switch gears and do some studying/research into winter storms. When it comes to these biggies it seems like at the end of the day mesoscale processes and processes which evolve as the storm is evolution end up having much more of a factor than how the entire structure of the storm is evolving (I guess unless you’re talking about a perfect and clean phase and capture but at the end of the day…how often does that ever really happen).

At least for myself, this was a tremendous experience in the forecast/communication process. Obviously from the get-go I was incredibly aggressive (which I had my reasons for). But at the end of the day, if it’s mesoscale and evolution processes…it’s probably best to wait until the final second to really go balls to the wall. It can be communicated prior that extreme amounts are possible but don’t forecast it. 
 

One big concern I had too (even prior to making a forecast) was the low bombing out so quickly and so far south all the goods would be confined to bands and we would see more banded structures. With that, it’s almost impossible to know where they will traverse until the mesoscale evolutions are known. 

No question in my mind that deformation-kill area would have pummeled me with a normal airmass....this storm is a poster child for why I loathe these frigid, dry, arctic tundra deals......always end up huffing exhaust. The arctic air is probably part of the season it chased that convection/vorticity, and side stepped me.

These CJ deals always do that...you pray it moves inland, and it remains pinned inside of rt 128. I know it more mid level fronto than OES this time, but same end point.

Unbelievable....the beat goes on.

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