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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had it from me into ORH county..its tough to nail it down precisely. I'm not sure what your point is....

Just tune it out!  Your analysis and forecasting efforts are appreciated by the 99.9% of the forum.  As you and many areas stated many times, this was, and actually continues to be a challenging forecast relative to banding.  Even getting very close to nailing the banding location, which you did, is a feat in itself.  Meanwhile my daughter on the Cape has a raging white hurricane in progress...

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9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Big time doubts about this west of 495 now. Still early but the short term guidance is seriously meh.

Most of my forecast updates last night revolved around trying to sharpen the gradient between the coast and interior. I had a hard time seeing the banding getting west of 495. 

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2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Just tune it out!  Your analysis and forecasting efforts are appreciated by the 99.9% of the forum.  As you and many areas stated many times, this was, and actually continues to be a challenging forecast relative to banding.  Even getting very close to nailing the banding location, which you did, is a feat in itself.  Meanwhile my daughter on the Cape has a raging white hurricane in progress...

What was good about Ray's forecasting is that he stayed close to his original thinking of a big storm, particularly when the models were waffling.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Most of my forecast updates last night revolved around trying to sharpen the gradient between the coast and interior. I had a hard time seeing the banding getting west of 495. 

Yeah....when I woke up and took at a look at the 6z NAM and whatever the latest HRRR was I knew we were in trouble. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting crushed right now in the Ginxy band. Can’t see more than a few hundred yrds. 

Congrats.  Looks like I'm going to be stuck on the fringe.  Cringeworthy to be just a few miles from those stronger returns.  I'm getting waves of intense but it's not consistent.

Maybe it'll move a few miles west, but it looks pretty stationary.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  Looks like I'm going to be stuck on the fringe.  Cringeworthy to be just a few miles from those stronger returns.  I'm getting waves of intense but it's not consistent.

Maybe it'll move a few miles west, but it looks pretty stationary.

I think it might keep creeping out to you eventually. But not sure if it makes it to ORH. 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Conditions are really about to deteriorate. 

**I am even starting to see a little evidence of a westerly push for western portions of SNE, no promises, hope that continues**

You spelled east wrong, but appreciate the sentiment. I believe it is over for big amounts back here.

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