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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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This cyclone event is unusually tilted backward from surface to mid levels ...

That much is clearly exposed by balancing satellite and radar trends, against the current position of the surface low ...close to 40N/68W as of 1636Z (11:36 am).   Also...as Will ( thank you ) posted soundings from KISP indicating the 500 mb wind is SSE  ... west of that surface low, this thing is like one of those sloped tornadoes in the plains.

image.png.fb0d46c1ba5ac6ac637d95db8c37dda7.png

Anyway... it's not a analog of that; just a metaphor. But you can sustain lift at all scales through a vertically stressed column as these kinds of small scale event (and today ) demonstrate. 

It's not normally how these works..some tilt yeah. But I suspect this is pushing this about as far as it really can - or one wonders...

The other aspect I noticed ..I wonder if we've all neglected the age old rule about BL resistance when it comes to low pressure tracking.  I think I see what happened ( or suspect as such ..).  When we go back several surface analysis, we find that an arctic front passed S of the south coast prior to dawn.  The low at that time was still around 71W/37 or so N ( or close to that - I didn't take precise look).  Then, two hours later, ...there was an apparent center jump ENE pretty much parallel to the arctic front.   Now as said, it's 40N by 67 W

It's nasty outside... It's not inundating like those western solutions.  The NAM has a bit of a NW bias with west Atlantic cyclone tracking of coastal storms.   The 700 mb and 500 mb surfaces are clear, per radar and satellite, very displaced west of that WPC sfc analysis.  These features in a less BL viscosity would like have pulled the surface center in tighter -

- this was never destined to capture and stack, not given these now-cast observations. I mean with all this intense cold air flooding seaward, and that arctic undercut.  This we're getting, it is a mid level snows storm falling through an arctic blast.  I don't think I heard or read any statements related to this factor obtruding the low levels and (possibly causing ...) the surface low to displace so far SE as abruptly as it did right around 13Z ...seems that it "bumped" for lack of better word, off the arctic wall

 

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Short term/high res guidance seems to be struggling with banding over eastern Mass - underestimating the strength of the deformation band, but not picking up well on the dryslot on the Cape & Islands.

The band may collapse a bit back east, but the PVD-BOS corridor and points just east are going to get absolutely smoked for at least a few more hours. 
 

Noting a dryslot of sorts over Tolland County though. 

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't worry....I'll have a detailed post about how wrong  I was...always do when it warrants.

Same…this really gets me to watch to switch gears and do some studying/research into winter storms. When it comes to these biggies it seems like at the end of the day mesoscale processes and processes which evolve as the storm is evolution end up having much more of a factor than how the entire structure of the storm is evolving (I guess unless you’re talking about a perfect and clean phase and capture but at the end of the day…how often does that ever really happen).

At least for myself, this was a tremendous experience in the forecast/communication process. Obviously from the get-go I was incredibly aggressive (which I had my reasons for). But at the end of the day, if it’s mesoscale and evolution processes…it’s probably best to wait until the final second to really go balls to the wall. It can be communicated prior that extreme amounts are possible but don’t forecast it. 
 

One big concern I had too (even prior to making a forecast) was the low bombing out so quickly and so far south all the goods would be confined to bands and we would see more banded structures. With that, it’s almost impossible to know where they will traverse until the mesoscale evolutions are known. 

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4 minutes ago, Quincy said:

 

Short term/high res guidance seems to be struggling with banding over eastern Mass - underestimating the strength of the deformation band, but not picking up well on the dryslot on the Cape & Islands.

The band may collapse a bit back east, but the PVD-BOS corridor and points just east are going to get absolutely smoked for at least a few more hours. 
 

Noting a dryslot of sorts over Tolland County though. 

Cape radar is also improving by the minute. Should be back into decent snow growth mode across mid and upper Cape with temps continuing to fall @ 26°F

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Looking like I made the right call.  If I came ALL the way home and Missed a Historic Death Band in Either Cuneiform OR the other place I was going to stay in West Roxbury by JUST 5-10 Miles?? Oh man.  And sucking Exhaust Because of it?  

What's in that band 4" per hour in Brockton?  Do you know I've NEVER been inside a pivot.  Never made one.  

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