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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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  On 1/29/2022 at 4:43 PM, DomNH said:

Then yeah you'll at least hit double digits. Agree that 18'' is a stretch. Probably a pretty big stretch...

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Doesn't help that what is falling has the consistency of powdered sugar. Good forgettable storm here. My parents in Brockton though.....Dad's already called twice.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 4:44 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if this is maxing now...   Oh, it'll be a fun exit and take hours to do so - no worries.  But rad and sat depictions on whole are not improving nor decaying, sort of static ... it may have reached it's potency.   

Stars 2 am?     ... there's going to be some brutal wind chills outside tonight.  Like -15-like C with winds gusting still maxing 25mph

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Yea, only thing historic in the northern I 495 belt will be the cloud cover by pre dawn.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 4:34 PM, bristolri_wx said:

I was confused too.  They have two different maps up right now.  One with the correct colors and numbers, one with what looks to be outdated info but the correct time stamp and numbers out of whack.

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yeah, just realized, one includes overnight (storm total) and one is new from 7am on. they are both super aggressive for west of 395

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  On 1/29/2022 at 4:46 PM, JC-CT said:

I just don't think you can say "with blocking it should go west or should go east" because it all depends on location of the block and how it interplays with the pacific ridge/eastern trough. Really, the best you can say about a strong NAO block is that it's probably not cutting over buffalo.

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I understand that, but at the end of the day, you need to hedge to a degree on all of those nuances. The convective crap was real in this case, but the ensembles were on crack on MLK, of course. There is no silver bullet, otherwise forecasts wouldn't bust....which the NWS will for plenty of areas.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 4:52 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that, but at the end of the day, you need to hedge to a degree on all of those nuances. The convective crap was real in this case, but the ensembles were on crack on MLK, of course. There is no silver bullet, otherwise forecasts wouldn't bust....which the NWS will for plenty of area.

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100%

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  On 1/29/2022 at 4:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my map will look dumb near you. Maybe lesson learned on banking on band ending up west with +NAO? But then again, you hear people argue that that FAVORS NW push. Bottom line is at the end of the day, its a guess...and I guessed incorrectly.

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I think your map was well done at the time you put it out.  The shuffle east wasn’t totally clear then 

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