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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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  On 1/29/2022 at 2:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had it from me into ORH county..its tough to nail it down precisely. I'm not sure what your point is....

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Just tune it out!  Your analysis and forecasting efforts are appreciated by the 99.9% of the forum.  As you and many areas stated many times, this was, and actually continues to be a challenging forecast relative to banding.  Even getting very close to nailing the banding location, which you did, is a feat in itself.  Meanwhile my daughter on the Cape has a raging white hurricane in progress...

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  On 1/29/2022 at 2:49 PM, DomNH said:

Big time doubts about this west of 495 now. Still early but the short term guidance is seriously meh.

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Most of my forecast updates last night revolved around trying to sharpen the gradient between the coast and interior. I had a hard time seeing the banding getting west of 495. 

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  On 1/29/2022 at 3:00 PM, FXWX said:

Just tune it out!  Your analysis and forecasting efforts are appreciated by the 99.9% of the forum.  As you and many areas stated many times, this was, and actually continues to be a challenging forecast relative to banding.  Even getting very close to nailing the banding location, which you did, is a feat in itself.  Meanwhile my daughter on the Cape has a raging white hurricane in progress...

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What was good about Ray's forecasting is that he stayed close to his original thinking of a big storm, particularly when the models were waffling.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 3:00 PM, OceanStWx said:

Most of my forecast updates last night revolved around trying to sharpen the gradient between the coast and interior. I had a hard time seeing the banding getting west of 495. 

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Yeah....when I woke up and took at a look at the 6z NAM and whatever the latest HRRR was I knew we were in trouble. 

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  On 1/29/2022 at 2:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Getting crushed right now in the Ginxy band. Can’t see more than a few hundred yrds. 

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Congrats.  Looks like I'm going to be stuck on the fringe.  Cringeworthy to be just a few miles from those stronger returns.  I'm getting waves of intense but it's not consistent.

Maybe it'll move a few miles west, but it looks pretty stationary.

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  On 1/29/2022 at 3:05 PM, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  Looks like I'm going to be stuck on the fringe.  Cringeworthy to be just a few miles from those stronger returns.  I'm getting waves of intense but it's not consistent.

Maybe it'll move a few miles west, but it looks pretty stationary.

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I think it might keep creeping out to you eventually. But not sure if it makes it to ORH. 

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