wx_observer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not seeing updated maps yet from BOX. Sounds like they pushed higher totals further west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I think you can double expectations west of the river, this looks to me like it could go off the charts. That GFS evolution as I mentioned in the other thread (and NWS seems to have picked up same idea) is very explosive, and in fact I think the low is going to deepen below 970 mbs. It appears to be heading across the Cape and into western Gulf of Maine. There is already considerably more snow in the lower Hudson valley as per NYC forum reports, and I think western MA could easily see 12" and possibly 15-18" amounts. Even Albany NY could see 6" or more. The snow shield will be back to Utica to Plattsburgh at this rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 that band in eastern ct looking better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Great band moving in now. Going to be a real pain to measure given that it is already blowing around. 25/22 and measured an average of just over 3 inches in 3 spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Subby hole trying to open up near me? What goes up in eastern CT must come down WOR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: 5 AM update... *** Powerful multi facet winter storm w/near record snow, blizzard conditions, near hurricane force wind gusts & coastal flooding *** Highlights... * Near record snowfall with a widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall in eastern MA & RI, along with blizzard conditions. Localized amounts up to 3 ft possible in this region * Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times with possibility of thundersnow across eastern MA and RI. This will make travel very dangerous to nearly impossible * Near hurricane force wind gusts are possible along the eastern MA coast, possibly resulting in power outages Overview... Explosive cyclogenesis underway with surface low down to about 989 mb at 09z east of the DE coast. Mid/upper level trough amplification evident on satellite, with negative tilt and cooling cloud tops, along with a classic baroclinic leaf signature. This will support rapid deepening today and into this evening, with 00z guidance indicating a sub 970 mb low just off the eastern MA coast at 00z Sunday! This will be about a 35 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, from 00z Sat to 00z Sun! Hence, meeting and surpassing bomb cyclone criteria. Details... Near record snowfall/extreme snowfall rates... 00z models have trended slightly farther west with qpf and slightly heavier as well. Given storm intensity and rapid amplification along with mid level low track over or just east of the eastern MA coast, this trend seems reasonable. Very strong jet dynamics which includes a dual upper level jet streak, combined with a moist/cold NE conveyor belt up to 80 kt off the Atlantic into SNE, will provide a firehose of abundant moisture, supporting a period of very heavy snowfall from approximately 9 am to 4 pm. In addition, as dry slot approaches eastern MA and RI this afternoon, model soundings indicate a potential moist absolute unstable layer (MAUL) in this area. This seems reasonable as approaching dry slot will help steepen mid level lapse rates. All of the attributes listed above support intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times, along with thundersnow. Also, model/BUFKIT time sections indicate the bulk of the lift is occurring in the snow growth region later this morning and afternoon. This will yield SLR of 15-20 to 1. Therefore, an upward trend in qpf, a shift slightly farther west and heavy snow bands with high SLR, have resulted in slightly higher snow totals from previous forecast, and slightly shifted west. Heaviest snow (near record snow possible) will occur across RI into the Worcester Hills, with 18-24" likely. In eastern MA, 24-30" is likely. These higher totals in RI and the Worcester Hills will hinge on mesoscale banding pivoting westward from eastern MA into RI & the Worcester Hills. These snow totals will be record or near record in many locations. In addition, strong NE winds will result in snow drifts up to 4 ft and possibly higher. Considerable blow and drifting along with near zero vsby at times, will result in very dangerous to impossible travel conditions late this morning and afternoon. In addition, with temps falling through the teens and WCI at or below zero, this will be a very dangerous situation for anyone becoming stranded on the roads. Hence, don`t venture out if at all possible because it could become a life-threatening situation. Snow totals will decrease westward across CT (especially CT River Valley westward) and west of the Worcester Hills in MA. Our snow totals in northwest MA may have to be adjusted downward, as some concern very cold/dry air advecting into that region (KAQW dew pt currently 2F) may overwhelm the boundary layer, resulting in less snowfall. Something we will be monitoring. PTYPE and Snow Load... Well defined coastal front already established, with north wind at KBOS with a temp of 27F. Meanwhile, KGHG northeast wind and 34F. As strong pressure falls approach from the south, this coastal front will become more pronounced and begin to bleed southward. These pressure falls will also cause rain early this morning across the outer Cape and Nantucket, to flip over to snow between 7 am and 10 pm, as winds shift to the NNE and draws colder air southward. The concern here is that there could be many hours of wet snow here, increasing the weight of tree branches and limbs. This combined with NE winds gusting as high as 65-75 mph from about 9 am to 4 pm, will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages across Nantucket, Cape Cod and possibly coastal Plymouth county. This delay in changeover from rain to snow, will reduce snow totals to 12" to 18" across the outer Cape and Nantucket. Strong to Damaging winds... As mentioned above, anomalous low level NE jet combined with steep low level lapse rates, NNE winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 65-75 across Cape Cod and the Islands, including Cape Ann, will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages. The greatest risk could be across Cape Cod, the islands and coastal Plymouth county, as heavy wet snow combines with these strong/damaging winds. In addition, these very strong winds combined with snowfall rates of 2- 4" per hour at times, will yield blizzard conditions across RI and eastern MA, with vsbys near zero at times. Even after the snow tapers off early this evening, there will continue to be considerable blowing and drifting snow. "In Eastern Mass, 24-30 is likely" !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Insane outside Heavy snow and strong winds here in Brooklyn Upton updated my area to 12-16 inches 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottieBird Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 There's a very loud FOG horn that blows on occasion in Newport whenever the Viz drops below a half a mile. I've yet to hear this FOG horn during this event. Hopefully heavier bands will be onshore in the coming minutes. So far the snow is wetter than I had expected but the intensity is disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: that band in eastern ct looking better and better It will depend where that sets up shop. It’s orienting and moving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Insane outside Heavy snow and strong winds here in Brooklyn Upton updated my area to 12-16 inches Man I'm happy for you!! And me!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Hi, just woke up from my 4 hour nap. Good to see things still look up because we only have about 2-3 inches so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Man I'm happy for you!! And me!! No double barrel low right now on satellite. The snow bands are further west than modeled so far down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It will depend where that sets up shop. It’s orienting and moving I think it pushes west in a few hours once things get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Trying to get that band to weenie in Tolland. Snowing pretty well for Ginxy right now with a little NE drift below the beam. Looks like the band has really slowed down and is getting near stationary. Pounding for Scoot too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Insane outside Heavy snow and strong winds here in Brooklyn Upton updated my area to 12-16 inches What do you have now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Blech, subsidence. Visibility way up, tiny flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It will depend where that sets up shop. It’s orienting and moving It doesn’t appear to be moving to far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Trying to get that band to weenie in Tolland. Snowing pretty well for Ginxy right now with a little NE drift below the beam. Looks like the band has really slowed down and is getting near stationary. Pounding for Scoot too. It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Blech, subsidence. Visibility way up, tiny flakes. The day is still young... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes I love the weenie icon on mt. tolland. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes it’s not there yet. The drift will be a hair south of the band with a N wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 inch on the nose in Westfield. Flake size much improved from an hour ago. Wind gusts have also started. A friend in Granby CT says he is having 35 mph gusts the last hour or so. 19 degrees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s snowing hard. You want to be downwind of where it sets up. The heaviest snow will be out in front of where it looks like on radar with the wind. We’ll just have to see how the day goes Looks like Will's getting pounded there. I hope that can get nudged NW about 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Post lots of pics and vids guys (and gals). Little bummed, the only thing I miss is the rush of a big dog GLTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: that band in eastern ct looking better and better Whats it like in Greenfield now? Really improved flakes in Westfield the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 think our time to shine is between 10 and 4 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 https://youtube.com/shorts/0CfG79f-sv4?feature=share Expecting around 12-14 inches here in my area of Nova Scotia along with 60 +mph winds. Not the massive amounts you guys are expecting but still a good storm. Awesome snowgrowth here currently as you can see in the video. Might get in on some sting jet action tonight as the low pulls up into the Bay of fundy. Some models including the Euro show southwesterly gusts over hurricane force around midnight ! Hope you guys get absolutely crushed, you’ve been dreaming of a storm like this for a while now, enjoy !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, UnitedWx said: Whats it like in Greenfield now? Really improved flakes in Westfield the last hour in Belchertown flake size still pretty small but improving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The day is still young... I can live vicariously through Reed T's livestream on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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