RU848789 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, RU848789 said: As of 9 pm, we only picked up another 1/8" since 8:30 pm, as the snow let up, meaning we have 5/8". However, the radar is looking great and intensity just picked up and it's coming down nicely. Also, so far the snow that's falling is easily 15-20:1 snow to liquid, with very nicely formed dendrites making a nice fluffy snow. Not sure how long that will last, but if we can retain this kind of crystal growth in the DGZ once the precip gets heavier, we could pile up some snow quickly during the first half of the night - one of the pros on another board said he thought we'd retain good snow growth through the first half of the storm. Down to 30F. As of about 9:35, we're up to 1". Coming down close to moderately at 30F. Didn't expect to have an inch until 11-12, so feels like we're ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Been a steady light snow for most of the evening but has noticeably picked up in the last hour. Just took the dog for a walk and I'd say about 1.5 inches with moderate snow. Didn't expect this so soon, it just has the feel of an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Snow coming down heavier here in Brooklyn. Just dropped off my fiancee at the store. Visibility is getting worse. Radar looks really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Been a steady light snow for most of the evening but has noticeably picked up in the last hour. Just took the dog for a walk and I'd say about 1.5 inches with moderate snow. Didn't expect this so soon, it just has the feel of an overperformer. We're neighbors I'm here in Flushing. Def coming down pretty nicely with about 1.5 inches as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Jersey-13-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: We're neighbors I'm here in Flushing. Def coming down pretty nicely with about 1.5 inches as well. Howdy neighbor. I think we're good for 10 inches plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Incoming for the city east-first heavy band coming in from Monmouth. Also have an inch or so here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Holy convection as it stregthens right now over the Gulf Stream. Few hours ago there were only 5 lightning strikes. Now there are 5-10 per minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: Howdy neighbor. I think we're good for 10 inches plus. Yep I think it could be one of those where the outer boroughs surprise some peoeps... so far looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, JohnnyDop said: Holy convection as it stregthens right now over the Gulf Stream. Few hours ago there were only 5 lightning strikes. Nies there 5 per minute. That’s what we don’t want. We want that convection to be weaker. That might be the mechanism to string out the low and drag it east. But the short range models are in good shape so hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, JohnnyDop said: Holy convection as it stregthens right now over the Gulf Stream. Few hours ago there were only 5 lightning strikes. Nies there 5 per minute. Was hoping for days this would end up tucked closer to the Outer Banks at this stage. Didn't happen. Well modeled all along as an offshore low. Still could be a really good one for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just after 10 pm: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Snowing light to moderate but ratios already seem very good as expected, probably close to an inch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Light snow since about 9 pm. Just a trace covering everything but starting to get a little heavier now. Small flakes. 27.5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not quite half inch Belle Mead NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Snowing light to moderate but ratios already seem very good as expected, probably close to an inch already. No no, haven't you heard... there's no such thing as ratios. Snow only falls at 10-1 NO MATTER WHAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: No no, haven't you heard... there's no such thing as ratios. Snow only falls at 10-1 NO MATTER WHAT. I think people have said the winds would cut ratios which is a reasonable thing but no real wind at the front end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: I think people have said the winds would cut ratios which is a reasonable thing but no real wind at the front end of the storm. I know, but the comments every time somebody mentions ratios or posts a Kuchera map is ridiculous. Not the same type of storm at all but La Guardia got 9 inches of snow on .3 QPF earlier this month. ratios are a THING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 This thing does not look west enough at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Long Island-Incoming. Interested to see where this westernmost band shaping up over SE NJ ends up. Could be over the city by the looks of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Couple more shots before I try to catch some sleep, looking really good here in inland Toms River. The flakes are finally fattening up and away from the pixie dust. Really piling up now with steady moderate snow @ 31*. My snow projector signaling to the heavens where to park the white gold. Seems to be working. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: This thing does not look west enough at all. you in Maryland? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Long Island-Incoming. Interested to see where this westernmost band shaping up over SE NJ ends up. Could be over the city by the looks of it. It looks like it will be over central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: I know, but the comments every time somebody mentions ratios or posts a Kuchera map is ridiculous. Not the same type of storm at all but La Guardia got 9 inches of snow on .3 QPF earlier this month. ratios are a THING. I’ll say that if the 40-50+ mph winds don’t happen tomorrow or in the meat if the storm then ratios might work out. Lift looks good in the temp layer (-12 to -18C) for a while for most of us where dendrites would form. But the 970 or under MB low expected will generate much stronger winds by the morning and would ruin it by breaking the flakes up. Ratios are about the temp where the flakes are made in the cloud and those flakes making it to the ground. I’ve been in 10 degrees before in a bunch of 10-1 ratio at best sand flakes because of poor growth. Not saying it’ll happen here but you can’t just take it’ll be cold and it’s snowing for big ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I’ll say that if the 40-50+ mph winds don’t happen tomorrow or in the meat if the storm then ratios might work out. Lift looks good in the temp layer (-12 to -18C) for a while for most of us where dendrites would form. But the 970 or under MB low expected will generate much stronger winds by the morning and would ruin it by breaking the flakes up. Ratios are about the temp where the flakes are made in the cloud and those flakes making it to the ground. I’ve been in 10 degrees before in a bunch of 10-1 ratio at best sand flakes because of poor growth. Not saying it’ll happen here but you can’t just take it’ll be cold and it’s snowing for big ratios. I understand that, but most of this forum is focused on the immediate area around NYC and that will be far enough from strong winds for most of this storm that it shouldn't really have an impact on snow growth. Which is why the outer extent of the moderate/heavy snow actually could reflect the Kuchera snow totals. Just a hunch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I think its interesting that the short range models (RAP, HRRR) have significantly more qpf than the other models. I am not sure if this is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, Jt17 said: you in Maryland? lol I am but I’m from Harlem. Just looking at radar, looks like 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think its interesting that the short range models (RAP, HRRR) have significantly more qpf than the other models. I am not sure if this is normal. One doesn't even have to look at the hrrr to see the moisture pumping off the atlantic. Above average sst's have alot to do with that. These bands are sharpening up as they come off the ocean also as everything gets its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I am but I’m from Harlem. Just looking at radar, looks like 2-4” 2-4" inches for the whole storm? lol You actually came here to troll. What a boring place to troll man. It's a bunch of weather nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think its interesting that the short range models (RAP, HRRR) have significantly more qpf than the other models. I am not sure if this is normal. We're in their respective time frame of usefulness but who knows if they're going to be accurate considering how chaotic the modeling has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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