January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Double Jan 2018 and you have Jan 2016.  So see, you didn't actually miss all of Jan 2016, you got to experience half of it in Jan 2018.

If you look at it that way.....

 

I don't. It just really sucks still that I missed it and I shall never again. I left LB to move to Austin 6 days before Juno 2015 hit and that wasn't bad here, probably a little better than this event. Leave it at that lol. Might have been Long Beach's all timer and my brother who was home then (now lives in West Palm Beach, FL and his weather concern tonight is falling iguanas lol, he also hates snow and winter weather) was gobsmacked by it. The photos from LB were unreal and I knew it had to be at least 24" and that was after some probably settled/melted. 

[Roger Smith]

For NYC the daily amount of 7.3" has been confirmed but keep in mind that 1.2" also fell just before midnight on Friday 28th so the storm total is 8.5" -- whether that's accurate or not, it is a new daily record replacing 4.7" (1904) for the 29th, and that was the lowest value for any January record snowfall so that gap is filled. 

The other locations all had similar small amounts from Friday to add to the Saturday amounts, these are what I see on the climate reports just updated for the Friday-Saturday totals: 

(edit _ I have since checked the CF6 documents updated through 29th, ISP has been adjusted in this list, but other cases where the quoted NWS chat varies from these numbers are not changed in the CF6 and I will continue to check the CF6 to end of month; these are the official records so I'm not sure why the NWS chat would be at variance with them.)

JFK ___ 1.6 + 9.3 = 10.9"

LGA ___ 1.3 + 8.1 = 9.4"

ISP ____ 1.5 + 23.2 = 24.7"

BDR ___ 0.9 + 9.6 = 10.5"

EWR ___ 1.4 + 6.6 = 8.0"

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC the daily amount of 7.3" has been confirmed but keep in mind that 1.2" also fell just before midnight on Friday 28th so the storm total is 8.5" -- whether that's accurate or not, it is a new daily record replacing 4.7" (1904) for the 29th, and that was the lowest value for any January record snowfall so that gap is filled. 

The other locations all had similar small amounts from Friday to add to the Saturday amounts, these are what I see on the climate reports just updated for the Friday-Saturday totals: 

JFK ___ 1.6 + 9.3 = 10.9"

LGA ___ 1.3 + 8.1 = 9.4"

ISP ____ 1.2 + 23.2 = 24.4"

BDR ___ 0.9 + 9.6 = 10.5"

EWR ___ 1.4 + 6.6 = 8.0"

JFK ended with 12.6". LGA 10.5", ISP 24.7", Central Park 8.3", Newark 7.7", BDR 10.5". 

NWSChat - NOAA's National Weather Service

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm sure there was more in Brooklyn than in Manhattan, but are we just going back to the days of the Park just reporting half asses totals again. That's the number everyone looks to for NYC totals. Can't they ever get it right? Everyone I've talked to says there was at least 10 maybe 10.5 inches in the Park, where did they come up with 8.3?

On second look after seeing Newark Airport reporting 7.7 I can definitely see 8.3 being not too far off. Here in Astoria just on the other side of the East River  we're somewhere in the 10 inch ballpark which makes me think the gradient across the metropolis makes sense when looking at the banding that set up.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

On second look after seeing Newark Airport reporting 7.7 I can definitely see 8.3 being not too far off. Here in Astoria just on the other side of the East River  we're somewhere in the 10 inch ballpark which makes me think the gradient across the metropolis makes sense when looking at the banding that set up.

The problem is the LE was 0.87 so if it's 8.3" of snow and it's hard to see lower than 10:1 ratios with temps in the mid teens. 12:1 should be the ratio.

Anyone have LE for JFK with their 12.6"  and LGA and EWR and ISP?

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

JFK ended with 12.6". LGA 10.5", ISP 24.7", Central Park 8.3", Newark 7.7", BDR 10.5". 

NWSChat - NOAA's National Weather Service

Hey thanks JM. do you have LE for all of these by any chance?

 

[Nibor]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

The problem is the LE was 0.87 so if it's 8.3" of snow and it's hard to see lower than 10:1 ratios with temps in the mid teens. 12:1 should be the ratio.

Anyone have LE for JFK with their 12.6"  and LGA and EWR and ISP?

 

The wind absolutely killed ratios here.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC the daily amount of 7.3" has been confirmed but keep in mind that 1.2" also fell just before midnight on Friday 28th so the storm total is 8.5" -- whether that's accurate or not, it is a new daily record replacing 4.7" (1904) for the 29th, and that was the lowest value for any January record snowfall so that gap is filled. 

The other locations all had similar small amounts from Friday to add to the Saturday amounts, these are what I see on the climate reports just updated for the Friday-Saturday totals: 

JFK ___ 1.6 + 9.3 = 10.9"

LGA ___ 1.3 + 8.1 = 9.4"

ISP ____ 1.2 + 23.2 = 24.4"

BDR ___ 0.9 + 9.6 = 10.5"

EWR ___ 1.4 + 6.6 = 8.0"

I'm confused this is not what the NWS reported.  Most of these are too low (EWR is too high).

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I don't. It just really sucks still that I missed it and I shall never again. I left LB to move to Austin 6 days before Juno 2015 hit and that wasn't bad here, probably a little better than this event. Leave it at that lol. Might have been Long Beach's all timer and my brother who was home then (now lives in West Palm Beach, FL and his weather concern tonight is falling iguanas lol, he also hates snow and winter weather) was gobsmacked by it. The photos from LB were unreal and I knew it had to be at least 24" and that was after some probably settled/melted. 

30" dude, I had 30" on the ground at the end of the storm, so I didn't even have to measure it every 6 hours to get there.  It was a true 30 incher even by the old method of measuring.  6 hour method gave me 32" and old end of storm method gave me 30"

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The wind absolutely killed ratios here.

And I guarantee next storm there will be 1000 Kuchera maps shown. Those should be banned. I warned countless times that those were BS. Even my 12-1 assumption was too weenie. There are places on the Island for sure where 20+ happened but it was due to dynamics and flake size within those bands, not the way Kuchera shows (I think it's assuming a ratio based on the highest temp 700mb to the ground). For hours this AM and afternoon it was probably moderate intensity in Long Beach but we had crap tiny flakes. The last sound enhanced snow burst may have been another inch just because we had dendrites again and wind died down. 

Avoid Kuchera maps in a nor'easter. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The wind absolutely killed ratios here.

Wow the wind can get it under 10:1 with temps that low?  But how did we get higher than 10:1 ratios in Jan 2016 with winds that were higher than this (true blizzard conditions at JFK for 12 hours straight) and temps higher too (in the 20s)?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And I guarantee next storm there will be 1000 Kuchera maps shown. Those should be banned. I warned countless times that those were BS. There are places on the Island for sure where 20+ happened but it was due to dynamics and flake size within those bands, not the way Kuchera shows (I think it's assuming a ratio based on the highest temp 700mb to the ground). For hours this AM and afternoon it was probably moderate intensity in Long Beach but we had crap tiny flakes. The last sound enhanced snow burst may have been another inch just because we had dendrites again and wind died down. 

Avoid Kuchera maps in a nor'easter. 

ah okay so Jan 2016 totals with higher than a 10:1 ratio can happen with higher winds if those other factors (flake size, etc.) are better?

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And I guarantee next storm there will be 1000 Kuchera maps shown. Those should be banned. I warned countless times that those were BS. There are places on the Island for sure where 20+ happened but it was due to dynamics and flake size within those bands, not the way Kuchera shows (I think it's assuming a ratio based on the highest temp 700mb to the ground). For hours this AM and afternoon it was probably moderate intensity in Long Beach but we had crap tiny flakes. The last sound enhanced snow burst may have been another inch just because we had dendrites again and wind died down. 

Avoid Kuchera maps in a nor'easter. 

what causes the tiny flake size?  is that a function of temp (higher temps give you giant flake size as the flakes melt together and refreeze on each other) and you get sound effect snow in Long Beach?

 

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

ah okay so Jan 2016 totals with higher than a 10:1 ratio can happen with higher winds if those other factors (flake size, etc.) are better?

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.

[Nibor]

The snow that fell here never developed into good dendrites. I think our area if you looked at the DGZ was just outside of the best dynamics.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes the tiny flake size?  is that a function of temp (higher temps give you giant flake size as the flakes melt together and refreeze on each other) and you get sound effect snow in Long Beach?

 

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.

hell no winds were way stronger, we had 12 hours of confirmed blizzard conditions at JFK.

what about Jan 2018 since you were here for that? Did the LE match up with the snowfall measurement at JFK?

I remember this also happened in Dec 2003, the first day of the storm with the higher temps and being 5 miles north of the mix line gave us much larger flake size, on the second day I was stoked because temps were supposed to be lower but we got this tiny flake size and the visibility didn't even drop much while it was snowing and it was Farmingdale that got the 20" and we ended up with 13"

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

This is why I hate banding lol, I just want a general area of heavy snow like we get in our less intense storms that throw moisture over arctic air.

 

 

[nycwinter]

if we only were closer to the storm in central park with the very good snow rations it would have been historic for the city...what a wasted month so many great chances for  huge snow totals in the city..

[EasternLI]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if it wasn't for that convection NYC would've gotten 20" in this one too just like they did for Boxing Day, with or without any Atlantic blocking.

 

Reading through the NE threads somewhere. There was some speculation on the injection of arctic air causing some sort of interference with the baroclinic zone. Driving that double barrel look after it was a consolidated low early on. I thought that was an interesting hypothesis. 

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

if we only were closer to the storm in central park with the very good snow rations it would have been historic for the city...what a wasted month so many great chances for  huge snow totals in the city..

15.3" of snow in one month is significant...Atlantic City has 36" so far...the model mania ruined it for some people but not me...

[NJwx85]

Hard to get a good measurement because of the drifting but finished with 4-5” here in central Rockland just North of the 287/87/PIP interchange. 

[Tatamy]

54 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hard to get a good measurement because of the drifting but finished with 4-5” here in central Rockland just North of the 287/87/PIP interchange. 

3” out here in eastern PA.  Half of that was with the overrunning on Friday morning with high ratios.  The other half was Friday night and Saturday morning with occasional light snow during the period.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 hours ago, Nibor said:

On second look after seeing Newark Airport reporting 7.7 I can definitely see 8.3 being not too far off. Here in Astoria just on the other side of the East River  we're somewhere in the 10 inch ballpark which makes me think the gradient across the metropolis makes sense when looking at the banding that set up.

I' m not saying their total was egregious just off.

Let's first start with the basics, the Park reported 1.2 inches of snow on the 28th and 7.3 inches on the 29th which equals 8.5 for the storm. Simple math right? Yet they recorded 8.3 inches as a storm total. It was at least 9-10. If they can't even add 1+1 I don't trust they can stick a ruler on a snowboard and record amounts, a lot of times they don't. Years and years of experience with them has taught me this. The Conservancy helped for awhile but I'm not sure who's recording totals there this year.

And I think the 5.8 from the 7th was a bit low too. Most likely in the 6.5 to 6.8 range.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

if we only were closer to the storm in central park with the very good snow rations it would have been historic for the city...what a wasted month so many great chances for  huge snow totals in the city..

Just be happy we had near a foot of snow with a positive NAO.

[Eduardo]

29 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I' m not saying their total was egregious just off.

Let's first start with the basics, the Park reported 1.2 inches of snow on the 28th and 7.3 inches on the 29th which equals 8.5 for the storm. Simple math right? Yet they recorded 8.3 inches as a storm total. It was at least 9-10. If they can't even add 1+1 I don't trust they can stick a ruler on a snowboard and record amounts, a lot of times they don't. Years and years of experience with them has taught me this. The Conservancy helped for awhile but I'm not sure who's recording totals there this year.

And I think the 5.8 from the 7th was a bit low too. Most likely in the 6.5 to 6.8 range.

FWIW, I live on Roosevelt Island and I measured 8.2” and 10.4” for each of these events, respectively.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

if we only were closer to the storm in central park with the very good snow rations it would have been historic for the city...what a wasted month so many great chances for  huge snow totals in the city..

The 6z Nam was a weenies fantasy for NYC. I stayed up for the GFS to see if the Nam was legit but of course it wasn't. 

[bluewave]

You can see how tough it is for the ASOS to get an accurate liquid equivalent from the blizzard. The local Cocorahs look much closer to reality.  That ASOS precip of 0.51 at ISP is much lower than the 1.75 at a nearby station which also reached 20”+ like ISP
 

ISLIP NY Jan 29 Climate: High: 29 Low: 14 Precip: 0.51 Snow: 23.2

Daily Precipitation Report
Station Number: NY-SF-77	Station Name: Nesconset 1.4 SSW
Observation Date	1/30/2022 8:18 AM
Submitted	1/30/2022 9:19 AM
Gauge Catch	0.80 in.
Notes	Blizzard
Snow Information
24-hr Snowfall	9.0 in.
24-hr Snowfall SWE  (Snow Water Equivalent)	0.80 in.
24-hr Snowfall SLR  (Snow to Liquid Ratio)	11.2 : 1
Snowpack Depth	20.0 in.
Snowpack SWE  (Snow Water Equivalent)	1.75 in.
Snowpack Density	9 %
Duration Information
Precipitation Began	--
Precipitation Ended	--
Heavy Precip Began	--
Heavy Precip Lasted	--
Duration Time Accuracy	--
Additional Information
Flooding	None
Additional Data Recorded	No

 

[TheManWithNoFace]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Anyone agree with me on this?  I had said I thought this storm would rival blizzard of 78 in southeast New England.  While certainly not the long duration of that one snow totals were just slightly lower and winds were right in the 78 ballpark.  Some severe flooding from storm surge.  Again, not the duration of 1978 but in some aspects almost everything that happened in 1978 were concentrated into a 12-18 hour period this time.  I know this probably belongs in the NE thread but I thought it was interesting.

NYC and NNJ and interior spots were SO CLOSE to something more if sfc / upper air had just gotten together a little quicker.

Also, this storm should be a good lesson on Kuchera, 15:1+ ratios.  Heck I saw a pro met even suggesting 20:1.

Good storm and it was ALWAYS targeting CNJ, central / eastern L.I and SE NE with the big totals....sans the terrible performance by GFS.

SIAP but has there been any conclusions on ratio for this one? I'm in Hunterdon County and the snow was like dust. Flakes were always tiny, busted up dendrites. It didn't look like high ratio snow. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Reading through the NE threads somewhere. There was some speculation on the injection of arctic air causing some sort of interference with the baroclinic zone. Driving that double barrel look after it was a consolidated low early on. I thought that was an interesting hypothesis. 

Interesting, it sounds like the idea of a bigger storm actually had a higher chance of happening and what actually happened was a freak outcome.