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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


Northof78
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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Interesting how snowfall amounts ramped up as soon as you got out of Manhattan....Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn 12 inches, JFK 13 inches, I see 14 inches for Elmont, but I also see 18 inches for Elmont, lol which one is right?

 

The 14"...

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting how snowfall amounts ramped up as soon as you got out of Manhattan....Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn 12 inches, JFK 13 inches, I see 14 inches for Elmont, but I also see 18 inches for Elmont, lol which one is right?

 

The snow was noticeably heavier as I drove eastward across Queens. 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

You got over 20" didn't you?

Honestly. I don’t know. I was under a monster band all day. And the drifts are excessive so can’t get accurate measurement. I’d def say 20”. North babylon measured 18.5 and I’m in west babylon. Islip isn’t too far and measured 24. 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, Don, did you notice a big difference between Western Queens and Eastern Queens, and between Eastern Queens and Western Nassau?  What about between Western and Eastern Nassau?

 

The snow grew heavier as I headed East. It was extremely heavy from Islip to Holbrook to Patchogue.

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38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final amount was 8.3”.

Are we really buying that, or are we just back to accepting bad totals from whomever does or doesn't measure at the Park nowadays.

There was the debacle of the Central Park Zookeeper for many years, until they finally gave it to The Conservancy which wasn't perfect but much better than the Central Park Zoo, now who's not taking the measurements these days? I've talked to people in Manhattan today, 8.3 is just another in a long line of under measurements the Park is famous for.

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Are we really buying that? Or are we just back to accepting bad totals from whomever does or doesn't measure at the Park nowadays.

There was the debacle of the Central Park Zookeeper for many years, until they finally gave it to The Conservancy which wasn't perfect but much better than the Central Park Zoo, now who's not taking the measurements these days? I've talked to people in Manhattan today, 8.3 is just another in a long line of under measurements the Park is famous for.

it kills me that the center part of the Jersey shore got 20" and that snow somehow took an abrupt turn NE instead of coming due North

 

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Are we really buying that? Or are we just back to accepting bad totals from whomever does or doesn't measure at the Park nowadays.

There was the debacle of the Central Park Zookeeper for many years, until they finally gave it to The Conservancy which wasn't perfect but much better than the Central Park Zoo, now who's not taking the measurements these days? I've talked to people in Manhattan today, 8.3 is just another in a long line of under measurements the Park is famous for.

It’s possible. It wouldn’t surprise me.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

it kills me that the center part of the Jersey shore got 20" and that snow somehow took an abrupt turn NE instead of coming due North

 

Apparently the storm had to chase some convection. Who figured. :( 
 

NYC would have the 15-20” as well if the storm developed the way it should have.

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6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Are we really buying that, or are we just back to accepting bad totals from whomever does or doesn't measure at the Park nowadays.

There was the debacle of the Central Park Zookeeper for many years, until they finally gave it to The Conservancy which wasn't perfect but much better than the Central Park Zoo, now who's not taking the measurements these days? I've talked to people in Manhattan today, 8.3 is just another in a long line of under measurements the Park is famous for.

I mean Brooklyn topped out at a foot.  I think we can at least say that all of Manhattan had less than a foot of snow.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You came up with a good idea for nuking convection.  How much liquid nitro would we have to dump into the ocean to get rid of the convection lol.

Hell, go with liquid helium it's even colder.

 

The radar off of DE/S NJ last night looked amazing. The coastal storm did get its act together but then it dumbbelled with the offshore low which shafted NYC up to most of CT. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

The radar off of DE/S NJ last night looked amazing. The coastal storm did get its act together but then it dumbbelled with the offshore low which shafted NYC up to most of CT. 

so theoretically at least Manhattan could've gotten 20 inches of snow even without Atlantic blocking, they just needed the two low solution / chasing the convection not to happen?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so theoretically at least Manhattan could've gotten 20 inches of snow even without Atlantic blocking, they just needed the two low solution / chasing the convection not to happen?

 

I mean I don’t know for sure but I suspect it and models showed it. They had the big QPF max just east of NJ and before it could come into NYC the convective eastern low forced the Fujiwara movement. We had the insane NAM and UKMET runs with the one consolidated low that went away fast as the far eastern low took over. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

I mean I don’t know for sure but I suspect it and models showed it. They had the big QPF max just east of NJ and before it could come into NYC the convective eastern low forced the Fujiwara movement. 

and we all thought that was just a figment of the models' imaginations and fantasies lol.  Because usually it doesn't happen but this time it did work out....and screwed the city.  I can't complain because I got over a foot of snow, but Manhattan and NW did get shafted somewhat.

 

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

and we all thought that was just a figment of the models' imaginations and fantasies lol.  Because usually it doesn't happen but this time it did work out....and screwed the city.  I can't complain because I got over a foot of snow, but Manhattan and NW did get shafted somewhat.

 

 

This probably would’ve been another Boxing Day 2010 type outcome without that convective way out to sea low (and it somewhat did-coastal Monmouth and Ocean did very well). So yeah someone should’ve taken my advice about dumping the ice, nitro, whatever to stop the convection lol. Forky wasn’t kidding when he said it should’ve kept trending west with the upper air evolution improving as it kept doing. The offshore low strung everything out. 

So maybe for me it’s a wash. The crazy banding went east of me with how it evolved today, it would’ve been over NJ with how it “should” have evolved. 

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