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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


Northof78
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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'd have wanted better for being on the windward side.  It was primarily a south of 495 enhancement.

My guess is that the enhancement was very significant this storm because of the delta between the sound (in the 40s) and the air temp (low teens). Essentially lake effect aided by the air rising 200-400 feet over the hills on the north shore. 
 

if their air temp is 30 this probably doesn’t happen 

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6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

That’s what surprised me. Usually the NS kicks our ass

I'm sure there were multiple factors.  There must have been some other source of convergence other than the usual frictional convergence on the north shore.  But the sound may have helped.  dT around 14 or 15° C is more than enough for some enhancement.

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34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

KISP 291956Z 33021G35KT 1/4SM R06/1800V2000FT SN BLSN FZFG OVC005 M10/M11 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 31035/1953 SLP990 SNINCR 1/24 P0003 T11001111

 

Indeed they have

Good, my 24-48 from early on verified, in your back yard alone I see. (I know 48 doesn't count from drifts but hey, 24-48 was the target range, some place is probably going to end up 30). This will rage on for hours IMO, the low is tucking into the NH and Maine coast and the surface flow there will back to NW 40-60, LI Sound squall bands likely to set up and some places could see another 10-12 inches, others just an inch or two and blowing snow. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Every model showed the south shore getting more this storm. 

Agreed. I’m just a little surprised how it came to this. 

 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

My guess is that the enhancement was very significant this storm because of the delta between the sound (in the 40s) and the air temp (low teens). Essentially lake effect aided by the air rising 200-400 feet over the hills on the north shore. 
 

if their air temp is 30 this probably doesn’t happen 

That makes total sense. Ty for esplainin

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Boxing Day will always be my personal favorite. Was living in North Brunswick with my future wife in a ground floor apartment, opened our front door to 4 ft + snow drifts. Literally snowed in. We had something like 23 inches. 

This storm rocked though, especially considering the uncertainty. Hope you guys enjoyed!

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12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

25" in 2016 in Merrick.   

This will likely be 25" too.   This is number #1 though for me I think.  The drifts are insane.  

And to clarify:

I did measure in 2016 in an open field.  But this one is impossible.  I'm just going with whatever ISP says.  

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