January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I have about that in commack, maybe slightly more since I didn’t get any subsidence today. 

Lucky you.  Spent over an hour doing basically nothing here.  Except for the wind which was howling to feed into the surrounding bands.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

5' drifts 

 

 

Just measure on the deck and report it to the NWS.

[Parsley]

Almost 20” for my parents. 

[LoboLeader1]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Done. Like a light switch in Westchester. From wild to nothing

Snow tapering off here as well, wind has been a real factor. Currently 11* 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Just measure on the deck and report it to the NWS.

57" and the drift is ~3" over the deck height 

[NorthShoreWx]

Jinkies, temp is down to 12° here.

Visibility is about a half mile in snow and blowing snow, but lower in the stronger wind gusts.

[USCG RS]

13 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's impossible to measure with all the drifts but I'd say about a 11-12 inches in Whitestone. The good thing about the drifts is that it left some relatively bare ground in spots for the dog to do his business.

That weenie band bear Boston is absurd. That's an all timer for them.

Yeah they're getting smoked. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Took a much needed nap and did some shoveling and walking around and as of 12:00 pm, we have 7.25" here in Metuchen, which was very, very hard to measure with the windblown snow, so it was probably an average of at least 20 measurements around the yard (the snowboard measurement seemed a touch high to me at 7.6") which is close to my 8.25" prediction - wasn't sure we'd get that close a few hours ago, but the mostly light snow still delivered 1/3" per hour for the last 3 hours.  19F now.

Debating what to do with the 1/4" I got yesterday in the late morning - have seen some saying to include it - if so, I got 7.5".  I'm inclined to not include it, as it was from the front/clipper and we had many hours of no snow after that.  Don't think we'll get more than another 1/4", looking at the radar.  7.25" seems consistent with numbers I've seen reported near me in Middelsex County here and elsewhere, such as 8.5" in Carteret, 7" in P'way, 8" in Woodbridge, 8.5" in Staten Island, and 7.5" in New Brunswick.  Haven't seen any reports from Edison/Metuchen, though.  Anyone?

Damn, radar didn't show it well, but we got some more light to moderate snow the past hour, so we got another 1/4", since my noon measurement, to get us to 7.5" as of 1 pm. Kept thinking the storm was over and it kept going, albeit at a mostly light clip. Had 4.75" at 4:30 am, mostly over about 7 hours (about 0.7" per hour, with only one hour at a 1" per hour clip) and then only got 1.5" over the next 4.5 hours (1/3"/hr) to get to 6.25", and the radar was looking really weak, so I was thinking we would not get to 7". But since 9 am, we went from 6.25" to 7.25" over 3 hours (still 1/3" per hour). Usually if we get a 7"+ storm, there would be some hours with 1" per hour and once it tailed off it would be over soon after that, but this one kept chugging, slowly. I kind of like the "slow" snowstorm more than I thought I would as it's been more hours seeing the snow falling, which I love. It is finally looking like it might be done though.

Pretty good storm and, overall, very well forecast, with even the "busts" being maybe a couple of inches low or high vs. forecast, which is minor to me, given how complex this storm was. The NWS had a 9" forecast for my house before it started and I got 7.5", which is pretty good, IMO.

One other meteorological comment is I've seen a couple of posters reporting snow:liquid ratios of about 12:1, which is what I was thinking it was this morning. This means the NWS was a little off (they were predicting 14-15:1) and Kuchera was off even more (15-16:1 for most locations and up to 20:1 NW). Have never liked the Kuchera maps, but yesterday was thinking they'd be reasonable, so I included them along with the 10:1 maps, but the 10:1 maps ended up being better predictors. Will likely go back to just showing 10:1 maps in the future, unless we have an unusual case.  Plus 10:1 maps let you also know the QPF at a glance, whereas not knowing the Kuchera ratio easily, one has to work hard to get the QPF from Kuchera maps. 

Up to 15.3" for the season, over 50% of the seasonal average.  Let's see if we can get to 30"...

[weatherpruf]

Snow has stopped and we seem to be done here. Max of 6-8 inches widespread in Middlesex County area from reports here. Don't know for a fact if anyone actually hit 8 but someone probably did.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Lucky you.  Spent over an hour doing basically nothing here.  Except for the wind which was howling to feed into the surrounding bands.

I guess a thank you is in order…

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Damn, radar didn't show it well, but we got some more light to moderate snow the past hour, so we got another 1/4", since my noon measurement, to get us to 7.5" as of 1 pm. Kept thinking the storm was over and it kept going, albeit at a mostly light clip. Had 4.75" at 4:30 am, mostly over about 7 hours (about 0.7" per hour, with only one hour at a 1" per hour clip) and then only got 1.5" over the next 4.5 hours (1/3"/hr) to get to 6.25", and the radar was looking really weak, so I was thinking we would not get to 7". But since 9 am, we went from 6.25" to 7.25" over 3 hours (still 1/3" per hour). Usually if we get a 7"+ storm, there would be some hours with 1" per hour and once it tailed off it would be over soon after that, but this one kept chugging, slowly. I kind of like the "slow" snowstorm more than I thought I would as it's been more hours seeing the snow falling, which I love. It is finally looking like it might be done though.

Pretty good storm and, overall, very well forecast, with even the "busts" being maybe a couple of inches low or high vs. forecast, which is minor to me, given how complex this storm was. The NWS had a 9" forecast for my house before it started and I got 7.5", which is pretty good, IMO.

One other meteorological comment is I've seen a couple of posters reporting snow:liquid ratios of about 12:1, which is what I was thinking it was this morning. This means the NWS was a little off (they were predicting 14-15:1) and Kuchera was off even more (15-16:1 for most locations and up to 20:1 NW). Have never liked the Kuchera maps, but yesterday was thinking they'd be reasonable, so I included them along with the 10:1 maps, but the 10:1 maps ended up being better predictors. Will likely go back to just showing 10:1 maps in the future, unless we have an unusual case.  Plus 10:1 maps let you also know the QPF at a glance, whereas not knowing the Kuchera ratio easily, one has to work hard to get the QPF from Kuchera maps. 

Up to 15.3" for the season, over 50% of the seasonal average.  Let's see if we can get to 30"...

Great job reporting. 

[USCG RS]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Lucky you.  Spent over an hour doing basically nothing here.  Except for the wind which was howling to feed into the surrounding bands.

Unfortunately these bands create subsidence. The most annoying part.

[LoboLeader1]

16 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

10” final here.

Same here as well.

[ZNSTATED]

Looking pretty deep in Shirley 

14 degrees now

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I guess a thank you is in order…

Should've stayed in Huntington. I have plenty here but I'm sure there's 4-5" more there. I've been battling subsidence here for a while. About as typical of these in Long Beach as the sun rising every day.

[USCG RS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Should've stayed in Huntington. I have plenty here but I'm sure there's 4-5" more there. I've been battling subsidence here for a while. 

Where'd you wind up setting up shop? 

[USCG RS]

I would post pics.. But I can't post them here due to file size. 

[weatherpruf]

25 minutes ago, Rjay said:

5' drifts 

 

 

I've got some drifts too....but they are closer to 5 inches! Ok, more like 10 inches.....

[hooralph]

Just did a glorious 3 mile Jebwalk through Central Park. Probably approaching 8" on the ground. Go out and appreciate whatever snow you got.

 

[Rjay]

KISP 291856Z 33021G30KT 1/4SM R06/1600V2000FT SN BLSN FZFG BKN005 OVC009 M10/M12 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/1809 SLP991 SNINCR 1/023 P0003 T11001117

[EasternLI]

Was about to say, ISP area won't give up lol.

[justinj]

Might be over for me. Subsidence again!

[NYC10023]

Broadway is empty

[NYC10023]

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Just did a glorious 3 mile Jebwalk through Central Park. Probably approaching 8" on the ground. Go out and appreciate whatever snow you got.

 

Did 6.5 miles this am

heading back out now before it’s overrun with tourists 

[psv88]

Is that an inverted trough along the spine of the island? West to east band hasn’t moved, slowly sinking south 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Where'd you wind up setting up shop? 

Long Beach. Basically I’m free snow shoveling labor for my mother.  

Snow picking back up, one last hurrah maybe. Hopefully we can get another inch. 

[jm1220]

Just now, psv88 said:

Is that an inverted trough along the spine of the island? West to east band hasn’t moved, slowly sinking south 

Maybe a convergence area off the sound as well. That seems to happen with these storms. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Maybe a convergence area off the sound as well. That seems to happen with these storms. 

Yea... Upton AFD talked about something like that  

"Have also noticed some enhanced
reflectivities west of the large band, which may some
enhancement off the Long Island Sound in the strong N flow."

[Rmine1]

Back to whiteout conditions in Brightwaters. 16 degrees. 

[weatherpruf]

All over now but the sound of snowblowers in the neighborhood; I still have to clean some of the cars and the additional 1.5 that fell after initial cleaning. That's on the wife and son. He's 24. As for my daughter at 19, fuggedabouit. She does have 2 herniated discs from a fall which she is using as an excuse to avoid, well, everything, including dishes......