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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


Northof78
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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I think the west moves on the bands are over at this point and from here we see slow but steady pushes east. But still plenty left to go. 

Check out the band in western Suffolk. It’s crawling west still

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

KISP 291356Z 36021G34KT 1/8SM R06/2000V2600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M05/M06 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 01041/1307 SLP016 SNINCR 2/13 P0002 T10501061

 

The bolded means 2" last hour, 13" otg.  

My bad, didn’t see the previous post. I’m just west and eyeballed about the same.

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Not your typical coastal storm in that the low pressure is elongated, less centralized at our latitude, which may be working in our favor for coastal areas. If this system were more consolidated, with a more definitive center (or core if you will - thinking of the tight eye-features many winter coastal nor'easters exhibit), then the precip would also likely be more wrapped-in, and the dynamics more compact. That being said, it's still in its maturing phase, for SNE.

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20220129.142625-over=map-bars=.gif

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10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My William Floyd Pkwy idea will end up a little east of that. But wow at that band, congrats!! Looks like there's another one trying to form around Robert Moses to Port Jeff. Islip may get 18" too by the end. 

There may be one more attempt starting at a heavy band where I am in Nassau. C'mon...

Wm floyd was a good forecast but always impossible to pinpoint these bands ahead of time.  I’m about 2 miles east of wm floyd on north shore - best rates stayed to my east so far.  Great storm, probably these cold snowstorms are the best.  

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1 minute ago, Shades said:

Not your typical coastal storm in that the low pressure is elongated, less centralized at our latitude, which may be working in our favor for coastal areas. If this system were more consolidated, with a more definitive center (or core if you will - thinking of the tight eye-features many winter coastal nor'easters exhibit), then the precip would also likely be more wrapped-in, and the dynamics more compact. That being said, it's still in its maturing phase, for SNE.

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20220129.142625-over=map-bars=.gif

Models that depicted two centers of circulation were not that far off from this pic

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4 minutes ago, Shades said:

Not your typical coastal storm in that the low pressure is elongated, less centralized at our latitude, which may be working in our favor for coastal areas. If this system were more consolidated, with a more definitive center (or core if you will - thinking of the tight eye-features many winter coastal nor'easters exhibit), then the precip would also likely be more wrapped-in, and the dynamics more compact. That being said, it's still in its maturing phase, for SNE.

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20220129.142625-over=map-bars=.gif

 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah I spoke too soon lol. Back to heavy here in Long Beach with this band trying to form. 

The SW most low is attempting to take over. Given the pushing back west of banding and the winds kicking up, it just may... 

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2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Could be from Sag east if this keeps up. 

The H5 is trying to close south of LI, which looks to have a good shot, especially considering the back building and the winds increasing. If that happens... Just about everyone should be happy. 

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

The SW most low is attempting to take over. Given the pushing back west of banding and the winds kicking up, it just may... 

This is as close to a historic all time 1978/2013/1888/1899 storm as you ever be.

Half of me is happy getting a 6 to 12 event while half of me feels like we missed a monster and who knows when our next shot will be.

In any event thanks for your hard work and staying on top of the storm for us!

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