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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


Northof78
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2 minutes ago, krisb said:

Impossible to measure but under this nice band in Babylon right now.

That stuff in W Suffolk actually looks quite nice. Not the insanity of what's happening near Westhampton but probably 1-2"/hr. 

It's probably still coming down in Long beach at 1"/hr and I'm out of any major banding.

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8 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

To loop or not to loop that is the question??..its snowing in scranton again. So my guess is we snow most of the day,depending on where it decides to back in to the coast,it might be even more surprises esp out east.

The back edge of the snow has been nearly steady across eastern PA and eastern MD for the last two hours at least so you will definitely be in this for a number of hours to come.

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33 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's a 12:1 ratio roughly.  When I posted around 4 am I was speculating our ratios weren't nearly as good as predicted by the NWS (14:1) and guessed that I had probably gotten 12-13:1 ratios on a post on 33.  And Kuchera was estimating about 15:1.  Had 5.5" at 7 am and doubt I've had more than 1/2" since then, which would give me 6", but will measure shortly - that ~10 miles east of me really helped you get 1-2" more

I don't think we are going to put much more down here as the snows are light, so I'm going out to clean up the 5-6 we got, which won't be too hard since a lot of the walkway has been blown clean. Can still see the grass in parts of my yard; the winds didn't help with the accumulations. At least we didn't miss the whole party right? Guess we got our best bands early on. I told my wife we didn't get that much snow and she was like oh good! It's tough being a weenie when you are surrounded by normal people.....

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Ok, woke up and saw that the radar from about 5 am to 7 am was meh and measured about 5.5" at 7 am (very tough to measure with wind blown snow even in our backyard where usually wind doesn't affect measurements that much), which meant we only got 3/4" over the last 2.5 hours. Looking at the radar now, if those bands east of us can't make it here, there's no way we're going to make it to my 8.25" prediction, which I thought was a lock at 4 am. There was always going to be a sharp NW cutoff and we may be the victim of that. 21F now.

Well, we got some light to moderate snow the past 2 hours and we're now up to 6.25", which is a nice storm, but very likely will fall a bit short of my 8.25" prediction. Part of that is because the NWS predicted 14:1 ratios, so I kind of figured that in, but DonCat in Staten Island reported a 12:1 ratio - if it had been 14:1, I'd be at 7.3" now. No biggie, just interesting to observe. It's still snowing and the radar looks like we might have another hour or two with a shot at a heavier band as the storm pivots and starts heading ENE. For hours I've been watching heavy bands about 10-15 miles east of me falling apart as they move west, but maybe we'll still get one. Oh well, still a fun storm. 20F.

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Did someone really try to say the GFS was right with this storm? If we all listened to the GFS then all the metro would have needed is some salt for the roads. The GFS was not right with the low placement until it started to cave. Euro was much better. And the model outputs we’re okay except when people looked at kuchera which exaggerated the totals as usual. Oh and it is still going to snow for awhile…

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Well, we got some light to moderate snow the past 2 hours and we're now up to 6.25", which is a nice storm, but very likely will fall a bit short of my 8.25" prediction. Part of that is because the NWS predicted 14:1 ratios, so I kind of figured that in, but DonCat in Staten Island reported a 12:1 ratio - if it had been 14:1, I'd be at 7.3" now. No biggie, just interesting to observe. It's still snowing and the radar looks like we might have another hour or two with a shot at a heavier band as the storm pivots and starts heading ENE. For hours I've been watching heavy bands about 10-15 miles east of me falling apart as they move west, but maybe we'll still get one. Oh well, still a fun storm. 20F.

You’ll be snowing through 2ish

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4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Well, we got some light to moderate snow the past 2 hours and we're now up to 6.25", which is a nice storm, but very likely will fall a bit short of my 8.25" prediction. Part of that is because the NWS predicted 14:1 ratios, so I kind of figured that in, but DonCat in Staten Island reported a 12:1 ratio - if it had been 14:1, I'd be at 7.3" now. No biggie, just interesting to observe. It's still snowing and the radar looks like we might have another hour or two with a shot at a heavier band as the storm pivots and starts heading ENE. For hours I've been watching heavy bands about 10-15 miles east of me falling apart as they move west, but maybe we'll still get one. Oh well, still a fun storm. 20F.

Yeah i was figuring on about 12:1 ratios.... 8" here now...I saw another post of 8" also for si.

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8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Easy. I may see 2' here. 

My William Floyd Pkwy idea will end up a little east of that. But wow at that band, congrats!! Looks like there's another one trying to form around Robert Moses to Port Jeff. Islip may get 18" too by the end. 

There may be one more attempt starting at a heavy band where I am in Nassau. C'mon...

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

My William Floyd Pkwy idea will end up a little east of that. But wow at that band, congrats!! Looks like there's another one trying to form around Robert Moses to Port Jeff. Islip may get 18" too by the end. 

There may be one more attempt starting at a heavy band where I am in Nassau. C'mon...

13" at ISP

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