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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


Northof78
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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You were warned that the snow bands usually happen further west than modeled.

Think you meant something else; our point is they are actually even less west than modeled. We were looking at possibly 6-10, but that is unlikely now. Well maybe 6. 10 is almost certainly out, barring some radical change in the storm. It is what it is. It's a wintry day, just not a big event over here. Still hazardous to drive and generally a nasty morning, but not a big deal.

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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

As of 4:30 am, we're up to about 4.75" (difficult to measure with blowing/drifting snow) as we had good intensity for awhile, but then it waned, giving us 0.5" last hour. NWS forecast as of 4 am was for 4-6" more snow, so I'm thinking we'll get to 8-10", which would be a great snowstorm. All the way down to 23F.

Ok, woke up and saw that the radar from about 5 am to 7 am was meh and measured about 5.5" at 7 am (very tough to measure with wind blown snow even in our backyard where usually wind doesn't affect measurements that much), which meant we only got 3/4" over the last 2.5 hours. Looking at the radar now, if those bands east of us can't make it here, there's no way we're going to make it to my 8.25" prediction, which I thought was a lock at 4 am. There was always going to be a sharp NW cutoff and we may be the victim of that. 21F now.

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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Ok, woke up and saw that the radar from about 5 am to 7 am was meh and measured about 5.5" at 7 am (very tough to measure with wind blown snow even in our backyard where usually wind doesn't affect measurements that much), which meant we only got 3/4" over the last 2.5 hours. Looking at the radar now, if those bands east of us can't make it here, there's no way we're going to make it to my 8.25" prediction, which I thought was a lock at 4 am. There was always going to be a sharp NW cutoff and we may be the victim of that. 21F now.

I think we are going to struggle to get beyond 6. Every map thrown out had us straggling the 7-12 line. The rates now just aren't going to cut it. This happens every time in these east based storms. We did better on Jan 2015 and Feb 2013. We need a few bands to make it west but it just ain't happening.  I will note that its early and we can still rack up another inch or two throughout the day. Damn tight gradients!

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Spoke to a friend who is a "normal" over in Piscataway; told the shore was getting rocked he replied "better them than us." Which sums up how most people view it around in my parts.....Still a bit better rates would be nice. Already had a storm of this level this year. Well winter ain't over yet.

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2 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

We have 3 bands and 3 subsidence zones,rn nyc is getting hit with one of them. It's really sharpening up as we speak. The main event is on eastern l.i rn though.

Let me guess, I'm in one of those subsidence zones....is there some reason these zones tend to set up in the same areas? I've gotta wonder, because it happens in a number of storms. Must have something to do with the bay and geography.

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