January 28th-29th Clippers/NW Flow Obs/Last Minute Forecasts.

[John1122]

14 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

Some of the soundings for tonight are really impressive for this type of setup. Just have to hope you get under some of those bands.

 

 

I saw those soundings in the showers on the HRRR. Should be just blinding snow as the cells come by. Hopefully they get as many of us as possible. 

[PowellVolz]

Looks like the front end of that wave is moving out of southern Ky, northern plateau and it’s showing up on MRX radar.


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[John1122]

Slowly picking up here. Nickels and dimes falling now. Sticking on cars that haven't been running, deck rails etc. 

[PowellVolz]

It’s ripping it up on the Gatlinburg summit cam looking at Mt Leconte


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[PowellVolz]

Slowly picking up here. Nickels and dimes falling now. Sticking on cars that haven't been running, deck rails etc. 

I’ll be interested to see how much of that precipitation you are getting makes it into the valley without drying up. Might be a good sign that the skies are not “snowy” looking in Knoxville but we are getting some flurries


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

I’d say I’m at “light snow” level now. Pretty small flakes though. 

[John1122]

The mountains around me are starting to get that foggy look. Not sure if there's snow upstream or not due to spotty radar coverage. 

[Vol Man]

A little light snow in East Kingsport...temp down to 39 from 44 not too long ago

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Getting close to moderate now. Would be interested in Oak Ridge obs in about half an hour. 
 

[Carvers Gap]

Snow shower here on reasonably strong winds.  Won't last long, but fun to watch. 

[ShawnEastTN]

MRX Afternoon Disco:

Discussion: Strong northerly shortwave will continue to dive southeast tonight amplifying the longwave trough across our region. Lapse rates steepen this evening and early tonight as the trough axis pivots across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Hi-res guidance and current surface obs show a weak surface low associated with this shortwave diving southeastward from southern Indiana and western Kentucky toward the Cumberland Plateau and the Southern Appalachians this evening between 0z and 06z tonight. This weak surface low, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, should result in most widespread scattered snow showers around 02z to 05z across the area. This is the most likely time period for some of these northwest flow snow bands along the plateau to extend into the valley with light localized accumulation possible. Even though accumulation across the valley will be localized and light, any minor accumulation may result in snow and ice covered roads as temperatures drop into the 20s. Significant snowfall is expected across the mountains. Snow has already began accumulating this afternoon across the higher terrain with this synoptic band of light precipitation associated with the mid-level front and widespread upper divergence across the Southern and Central Appalachians. As northwest flow of 20 to 35 kt and 850mb increases this evening and continues tonight, it will result in strong orographic lift parallel to the mountains. DGZ saturation continues through tonight and into Saturday morning, so this is expected to be an efficient and high impact northwest flow snow event for the mountains. High snow to liquid ratios will result in higher totals, and strong winds across the higher terrain will lead to low visibilities and blowing and drifting snow in some location. In addition, the strong winds will result in life-threatening cold wind chills across the higher elevations with values as low as -20F. The DGZ begins to dry out on Saturday morning with drier air and a clearer sky building across the area. With the arctic high pressure building across the region, temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees below normal. Winds remain strong across the higher elevations with breezy conditions across the area as northwest winds gust up to about 30 mph at times.

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[John1122]

Ground is getting white here now. Temp is 32.4. 

[PowellVolz]

Will the DGZ be below the radar later? Not much on radar at my house be light snow is falling at a decent clip.


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[PowellVolz]

Ground is getting white here now. Temp is 32.4. 

I’m roughly 25 miles SE of you but our weather (climate) is night and day different. I’m around 1200’ feet so it’s not like you are way higher than me.




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[WinterWonderland]

Light snow started falling here in Oak Ridge about 20 minutes ago.  Temp is 36 degrees.

[Math/Met]

Got a light dusting out of that band that just moved out of Greeneville.

[ShawnEastTN]

Something don't see very often in these events, up stream in Louisville NWS area they are actively issuing small location polygon SPS for "Snow Squalls", this area is already under WWA.

Copy of the text for one of these:

"KYZ028-053-282145- Hardin KY-Larue KY- 351 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 ...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HARDIN AND LARUE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A snow squall accompanied by winds of up to 25 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than one mile. This squall is producing briefly heavy snow at the rate of 1 inch per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 350 PM EST, a snow squall was near Elizabethtown moving southeast at 15 MPH. THIS SQUALL WILL BE NEAR... Elizabethtown around 355 PM EST. Hodgenville around 440 PM EST. SAFETY INFO... Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. && LAT...LON 3768 8611 3780 8602 3766 8564 3754 8570 3744 8580 TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 302DEG 15KT 3768 8598 $$ SCHOETTMER"

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[Shocker0]

Just started coming down pretty heavily in Cookeville and that band is moving up the Plateau now toward Crossville, slowly but surely.

 

https://putnamcountytn.gov/cookeville-live-square

[Reb]

Huge flakes and heavy snow in Seymour, wow! 

[Shocker0]

28 here, but 35 in Cookeville and the snow is sticking for having just started 5 minutes ago.

[John1122]

Steady nickels with some quarters. About 1/4th inch down. Went to Co-Op to buy straw, it's snowing hard in LaFollette but it's about 34 and it wasn't sticking while I was there. 

[PowellVolz]

Huge flakes and heavy snow in Seymour, wow! 

I see that enhanced area on radar down your way. Very nice


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[Math/Met]

2 minutes ago, Reb said:

Huge flakes and heavy snow in Seymour, wow! 

I noticed that on radar. Looks great. 

[Reb]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

I see that enhanced area on radar down your way. Very nice


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Quickly laying down a coating

[John1122]

29 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m roughly 25 miles SE of you but our weather (climate) is night and day different. I’m around 1200’ feet so it’s not like you are way higher than me.




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20 miles N and a few hundred feet produces dramatic differences in East Tennessee. Upslope, downslope, warm noses, the works. I feel bad for MRX because a general weather forecast is different across the width of a county. Your weather is a lot different than the airport or west Knox. 

[Reb]

I mPINGd my house, right under that band

[John1122]

I don't know if it's the better radar coverage or not, but that band heading into Cookeville looks nice. It was showing up on the hi-res models yesterday but looks even better than they had it. 

[PowellVolz]

I mPINGd my house, right under that band

That area you are under is actually back building away from the flow. Man.. you might have hit the jackpot


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[PowellVolz]

I think me and my 7 year old might run up to Gatlinburg later on. He’s wanting to see some snow and my wife is out with some friends on a bachelorette party/dinner.


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[Shocker0]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't know if it's the better radar coverage or not, but that band heading into Cookeville looks nice. It was showing up on the hi-res models yesterday but looks even better than they had it. 

Probably just better than expected. Looks like it's ripping pretty good so far: