January 28th-29th Clippers/NW Flow Obs/Last Minute Forecasts.

[John1122]

MRX added the Northern Plateau counties to the WWA but mentioned that heavier convective showers are also possible into the Central Valley. Should be fun if you get a band or snow squall. The eastern mountains are golden. 

[John1122]

A few strays are floating by out there right now. Lots of dry air still. The lapse rates are really steep in the convective snow showers the HRRR has been advertising. 20-25c temperature drop from the surface to 700mb. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A pretty good radar return just north west of me, we'll see if it any of it reaches the ground when it gets here

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Alright, everybody needs to be on their A game for TIMs model obs today. HRRR showing some CAPE and lightning flashes. We gotta recharge the TIMs model as much as possible before next weekend. 

I don't think it counts if we just see it on GOES-16 derived flashes.

 

HRRR lightning flash density

 

0-3km CAPE:

[John1122]

The hi-res models keep putting that band right over me. The RAP put down 3-4 inches on its extended 09z run. I'm hoping for an inch. 

[Carvers Gap]

Glad to see the thread.  Will probably be a very light event, but given how cold the ground is, and the cold which will follow...this thread is warranted.  Fourth thread this month!!!  Interestingly, I was working in the garden yesterday in order to get things ready.  The ground in my raised beds is still frozen.  I didn't realize it while digging, but I couldn't feel my fingers once it was done. 

[PowellVolz]

The sky has that look to it and you can smell it in the air.


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[1234snow]

A really nice band moved through Louisville and it continuing southeast. I have no clue if it will stick together but there have been some special weather statements on it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

WBIR just showed a pic of Oliver Springs. Looks like they have half an inch on the ground. Nada here just a few miles NW. Apparently that band is producing. 

[Runman292]

Light snow showers has been falling in Oak Ridge for about 20 minutes. No accumulations so far.

[ShawnEastTN]

Radars look pretty impressive in Illinois and Indiana rotating down this way for the evening. This might be quite a NW flow event, one strong enough to give a inch or so to valley locations. I can remember occasionally that occurring at my low valley elevation on the Tennessee River over the years.

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[PowellVolz]

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[PowellVolz]

It pains me to see all these snow reports around Knoxville.

.#ValleyLife. #MotherNatureHatesKnoxville


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[ShawnEastTN]

It pains me to see all these snow reports around Knoxville.

.#ValleyLife. #MotherNatureHatesKnoxville


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Yeah I understand that, but I wonder since we had that initial moisture as the leading edge of the disturbance passes that fell as virga for most, it might be helping to saturating us for the better deeper moisture to come this evening.

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[Wurbus]

I just started seeing some flurries near Karns.

[Math/Met]

Light snow falling in Greeneville.

[tnwxwatcher]

Just seeing the first flakes here at my new residence in the very northern part of Powell, TN. I live up on a ridge top at about 1,263 feet... temp got back down currently to 39 from a little earlier today when it got to 44.

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[PowellVolz]

Yeah I understand that, but I wonder since we had that initial moisture as the leading edge of the disturbance passes that fell as virga for most, it might be helping to saturating us for the better deeper moisture to come this evening.

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You are correct. I’m a little NE of Knoxville and it’s spitting snow. Temp has dropped off several degrees. I wonder if it changes things if most of this falls as snow?


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[Wintersnow888]

Cumberland county just let kids out of school at 1:00 for incoming snow they said....At the moment just flurries , as it has been doing all morning

[PowellVolz]

Snowing pretty good in N Knox Co




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[Uncle Nasty]

Just met some co-workers for lunch. When we were leaving the temp was 41°. We lasted 3 minutes in the parking lot because add in the wind and dry air it literally felt like upper teens. I don't remember ever feeling that cold at 41°.

We somehow have a Special Weather statement out in our area for area mountains and "possibly" the valley areas.

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[ShawnEastTN]

Cumberland county just let kids out of school at 1:00 for incoming snow they said....At the moment just flurries , as it has been doing all morning

It makes sense, something we don't tend to think about with something as minor as an event like this, with it having been so cold previously with ground temps being right at or even below freezing even a minor amount of snow even less than an inch can make for treacherous roads where snow gets packed down onto the pavement by cars and refuses to go. Tonight and tomorrow will be even worse anything that sticks will be next to impossible to get rid of, salt doesn't work well once temps fall into the 20's let alone teens. Going to be some bad roads for sure later at least secondary roads.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Finally spitting a few flurries here in southern Morgan

[PowellVolz]

Our little wave up in NW Kentucky looks a little more vigorous than I expected.


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[ShawnEastTN]

Finally spitting a few flurries here in southern Morgan

That's one of the good and bad things about these events radar doesn't pick it up well. Nice little flurry here too but nothing on radar.

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[Jed33]

Coming down pretty heavy here in town right now!

[ShawnEastTN]

Our little wave up in NW Kentucky looks a little more vigorous than I expected.


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Yeah it's definitely more juicy than most NW flow events. I noticed new WWA issued southern Indiana think it has over performed in areas where they don't have the benefit of terrain enhancement.

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[Math/Met]

Some of the soundings for tonight are really impressive for this type of setup. Just have to hope you get under some of those bands.

 

[Jed33]

Wow it’s really coming down here now! It’s not sticking but wow!

[John1122]

Light snow here. Not really showing up on radar really. 33 degrees.