Blue Dream Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Finally seeing some flakes, @Blue Dream you are next. Yes! I am at work in Langhorne and it's coming down nicely...sticking on everything too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Modetate snow now. Coating. 27F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Jeeez, I literally posted it's likely crap, take a chill pill dude I get it, but just post 10:1 with caveat the numbers are likely a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z NAM looks tucked early on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Obs of PRE - currently SN- but slightly bigger flakes and temp 28/dp 24. Have a light coating now including on grassy surfaces (although the grass is still clearly visible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 58 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct". They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less. Your every post is very much appreciated. I am one of the lurking learners:) Btw, 29 degrees and light snowfall here in Newtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 To my old weenie eyes, it didn't look like the NAM initiated the PRE too well. Probably doesn't matter at this point, we're moving into nowcasting time -- track, where/when does the upper low close off, etc. Good luck everyone, enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Furrawn said: Your every post is very much appreciated. I am one of the lurking learners:) Btw, 29 degrees and light snowfall here in Newtown. You are welcome and here is the 3K NAM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I like where we sit here in extreme SEPA. Thinking 6-8" in my area with bust potential slightly favoring a bit more. We'll see how it shakes out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAMs ticked East but probably just noise at this point. Probably now cast time not expecting major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I like where we sit here in extreme SEPA. Thinking 6-8" in my area with bust potential slightly favoring a bit more. We'll see how it shakes out. I am thinking the same! Can't help but be jealous of SNE but this will be a solid event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: I am thinking the same! Can't help but be jealous of SNE but this will be a solid event. I can live with them getting more than us, that's climo. It's when the Carolinas are cashing in and were sitting high & dry...that's a tough one to deal with. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snowing at a near moderate clip here in East Nantmeal - just drove up from Downingtown to here and all roads are covered. Snow as of 10am already up to 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, JTA66 said: To my old weenie eyes, it didn't look like the NAM initiated the PRE too well. Probably doesn't matter at this point, we're moving into nowcasting time -- track, where/when does the upper low close off, etc. Good luck everyone, enjoy! Thanks and the same to you! I had a wait and see attitude about snow today, was looking forward to seeing "some" snow. This is pretty cool though! About 0.7" so far, 30F, dp 18. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 You know what? I'm getting fringed, but it's still snowing and the ground's gonna be covered. It's a little something for everyone here. Forecast calls for maybe 1.5", we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NWS Blend @ 12z... seems in line with Mt. Holly's call 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Back to mod snow, 29F/DP 26F. Forgive the weenie ob, but it feels like the PRE is overperforming here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Boreal said: So true that Rt 78 is always a mess in any weather, especially Lehigh-Berks portion. Per the latest AFD Mt. Holly seems to be aware of the potential for some increased snow totals in the NW 1/3 of the forecast area: “…My current feeling is that totals on the coast may be a little on the high side given a potential positive snow-ratio forecast bias, but may be a little on the low side in the northwest CWA (where snow ratios may be higher, and where forecasts have trended west with QPF in recent model suites).…”. Today’s snow has been in the forecast for many forecast cycles, but it’s far too little to warrant an advisory, and also may be too far removed from the potential additional snowfall tomorrow to even get the area to advisory level snows (the NWS criteria is 3” in 12 hours). I am more frustrated seeing the potential big snows to the east than by anything else, but hopefully some of the modeled snow trends continue and we get to join the party. I agree with your post but not the criteria. After this snow event Mt Holly really needs to be initiating a study to change the criteria for issuing warning and watches for the entire LV ( including Berks County) and northern Bucks and Montgomery counties. Nearly 2 million people now live in this area alone. Setting arbitrary warning criteria should be based on population and its density. This area has experienced the fastest and most growth in PA in the past five years. That in itself warrants the change not to mention placing the LV as most transportation dependent industry in the entire North east US by making the LV the logistics capital for the entire NE based on warehouse/distribution centers. Lastly, the physical geography with incorporating the actual location of the fall line should signify a change but that topic is for another day. https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/pennsylvania/admin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: NWS Blend @ 12z... seems in line with Mt. Holly's call Sick! I think we have a shot at 6"+ in Lower Bucks depending on the banding obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Back to mod snow, 29F/DP 26F. Forgive the weenie ob, but it feels like the PRE is overperforming here. We're in this heavier band moving through and yeah it does seem to be overperforming... 29F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Pretty interesting setup, I can't remember ever seeing a something like this for a winter storm where the primary gets started off the East Coast of Florida, plus it seems to kind of have 3 pieces of energy instead of 2 like a typical Miller A/B - does anyone have any analogs? Lmk if I'm misunderstanding something about the setup/energy transfer too Anyway, steady light snow here in East Falls (NW Philly), solid coating but not really enough to measure at this point. Hoping for 7 or 8" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Solid video here from Steve D, even if you doubt his call the info contained in the video is exceptional. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeNJWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just measured 0.5" here in the Sourlands, it's been snowing lightly since this early morning. Temp is up to 30.0 after a low of 24.6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z RGEM and latest HRRR still looking good for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 First snow “chase” in years….hoping to jackpot at the Hard Rock Casino in AC lol…good luck Philly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: We're in this heavier band moving through and yeah it does seem to be overperforming... 29F I've been pretty central under the banding since it setup shop this morning. Had some fatter flakes around the time you posted this radar image and when I took this picture 25 mins ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1.8" in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County as of 11am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Sick! I think we have a shot at 6"+ in Lower Bucks depending on the banding obviously. Yeah I like 6-8" right now with an outside shot of double digits. My baseline is warning level event and I think we'll hit that. At least we won't have to worry about sleet this go around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said: Pretty interesting setup, I can't remember ever seeing a something like this for a winter storm where the primary gets started off the East Coast of Florida, plus it seems to kind of have 3 pieces of energy instead of 2 like a typical Miller A/B - does anyone have any analogs? Lmk if I'm misunderstanding something about the setup/energy transfer too Anyway, steady light snow here in East Falls (NW Philly), solid coating but not really enough to measure at this point. Hoping for 7 or 8" here For the past week, the models have briefly shown some low scooting off the southern Florida coast and then "disappearing" while a new low forms off the coast of the Carolinas. As time went on, the Florida low would make "an appearance" and then the 2 lows seemed to be doing a waltz, the two cheek to cheek and jowl to jowl, while each one seemingly wanted to "take the lead" and yank the other in the opposite direction (either to the east or to the west) in the models, as they crawled up the coast. Sorry for my wild description but when you animate the runs, the "low(s)" just jump(s) around east/west/east/west wildly. As an obs, I am currently 30 with SN and dp 27. Looks like I have about 1/2" so far but there seems to be some insolation going on because there is some melting/evaporation despite the temps being below freezing. The wind is pretty light too so far so it's not blowing around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 1.8" in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County as of 11am You're cleaning up with the front right now Paul, I don't think any model had your area at almost 2" already. Even though you may be too far west for the best banding of the coastal, you may still score a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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