wkd Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Snowing here. Nice to see some snow during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And just checked since the returns have come overhead and there be very fine snowflakes - more than flurries but still light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, WebBreaker63 said: 28F Light snow falling Lower Bucks Looks like you work where hazwoper lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And the Hrrr, RGEM and GFS ticked East 13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Last Ukie run (0z). Toss that junk. Everything's dialed in on something big. This one's out to lunch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Toss that junk. Everything's dialed in on something big. This one's out to lunch Is that model ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Fields27 said: They clearly aren't putting any eggs in the NAM/Euro basket. I do agree that an advisory should definitely go out. Just to make people aware of the possibilities. How often do you see Mt Holly issue blizzard warnings that fan out to storm Warnings with no advisories to the fringe side? It's odd. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Ironic, they rely heavily on the Euro models in the discussion but fail to warn almost a million people who live "on the fringe". The greater Lehigh Valley metro area has a larger population than most areas in the midwest. Makes no sense. The Lehigh Valley has the most dangerously traveled road in PA - I-78/RT 22/ RT 309 corridor. Its already snowing and Mt Holly should at least be precautionary and not reactionary as there are way too many residents/drivers who rely on an accurate warning system. The Lehigh Valley metro is not hicksville rural areas anymore and they need to be more precautionary, thats all. The "I told you so syndrome" is about to come out of the closet again. Sorry for my rant but 25+ years of seeing this same scenario unfolding is frustrating. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Is that model ever right? Probably not. I'm the resident pessimistic person here but it's clear it's going down for real. The NAM is probably inflated but I can't see not expecting 6-12 for PHL at a minimum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Finally seeing some flakes, @Blue Dream you are next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 All surfaces are white here in Ivyland. Nice band over us setting up shop. Both vehicles went in the shop this AM. Dead battery on one, deal oil pump on the other. Murphy's Law. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Very light snow here, nice sized flakes lazily floating down. Nice. Great morning for people who like snow! 30F currently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My forecast is still 2-4 inches. Seems low to me? Based on changes seems 3-6 or 4-8 is more likely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: All surfaces are white here in Ivyland. Nkce band over us setting up shop. Both vehicles went in the shop this AM. Dead battery on one, deal oil pump on the other. Murphy's Law. Sorry to hear ralph but now you have no reason to go anywhere anyway No snow at PHL airport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Light snow continues, everything getting coated. Hope Greenskeeper stocked up on weenies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Toss that junk. Everything's dialed in on something big. This one's out to lunch I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct". They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Light snow continues, everything getting coated. Hope Greenskeeper stocked up on weenies. He has stock in them glizzies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct". They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less. No no no I'm glad you post it I like to see it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: My forecast is still 2-4 inches. Seems low to me? Based on changes seems 3-6 or 4-8 is more likely. I think 4-6” is a good starting point for us—I’m sure there will be adjustments as the day goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z GFS and a later wild panel with that damn "ball and chain other low". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Could you imagine if the NAM is right ... 44.9" at Toms River Whoever said Kuchera ratio is crap is likely right...still.. My mt. holly forecast is 4-11", largest range I've seen but very understandable. Would be amazed though if we see a foot+ around 95. This just seems like one to sit back and watch unfold. None of the model's had this snow as robust as it looks this morning. Most didn't have precip beginning until this afternoon including the latest HRRR. Even though most people are aware of the storm, I don't think many were expecting it to begin so early, afternoon commute could be a nightmare... Right now light snow is falling in Trenton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 6z GFS and a later wild panel with that damn "ball and chain other low". I thought I read in the MA forum that when a double low apears on the GFS the west low takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: All surfaces are white here in Ivyland. Nice band over us setting up shop. Both vehicles went in the shop this AM. Dead battery on one, deal oil pump on the other. Murphy's Law. Ugh... Just got my oil pump fixed on my truck. That was $3K I didn't want to spend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Current obs - temp 29 with dp 23 and SN-. Have a dusting on the colder/non-treated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, Albedoman said: Ironic, they rely heavily on the Euro models in the discussion but fail to warn almost a million people who live "on the fringe". The greater Lehigh Valley metro area has a larger population than most areas in the midwest. Makes no sense. The Lehigh Valley has the most dangerously traveled road in PA - I-78/RT 22/ RT 309 corridor. Its already snowing and Mt Holly should at least be precautionary and not reactionary as there are way too many residents/drivers who rely on an accurate warning system. The Lehigh Valley metro is not hicksville rural areas anymore and they need to be more precautionary, thats all. The "I told you so syndrome" is about to come out of the closet again. Sorry for my rant but 25+ years of seeing this same scenario unfolding is frustrating. So true that Rt 78 is always a mess in any weather, especially Lehigh-Berks portion. Per the latest AFD Mt. Holly seems to be aware of the potential for some increased snow totals in the NW 1/3 of the forecast area: “…My current feeling is that totals on the coast may be a little on the high side given a potential positive snow-ratio forecast bias, but may be a little on the low side in the northwest CWA (where snow ratios may be higher, and where forecasts have trended west with QPF in recent model suites).…”. Today’s snow has been in the forecast for many forecast cycles, but it’s far too little to warrant an advisory, and also may be too far removed from the potential additional snowfall tomorrow to even get the area to advisory level snows (the NWS criteria is 3” in 12 hours). I am more frustrated seeing the potential big snows to the east than by anything else, but hopefully some of the modeled snow trends continue and we get to join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: I thought I read in the MA forum that when a double low apears on the GFS the west low takes over. Whatever that is, it has been causing the continual "west - east - west" model dance, depending on how much "weight" they put on that. The GFS seemed to have ignored it early on but has drunk the koolaid and is now having to deal with it, whereas the NAM and Euro completely embraced the chaos early on. This also impacts whether you end up with a SECS whiff or a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct". They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less. Keep it up. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Could you imagine if the NAM is right ... 44.9" at Toms River Whoever said Kuchera ratio is crap is likely right...still.. My mt. holly forecast is 4-11", largest range I've seen but very understandable. Would be amazed though if we see a foot+ around 95. This just seems like one to sit back and watch unfold. None of the model's had this snow as robust as it looks this morning. Most didn't have precip beginning until this afternoon including the latest HRRR. Even though most people are aware of the storm, I don't think many were expecting it to begin so early, afternoon commute could be a nightmare... Right now light snow is falling in Trenton. Please stop with the Kuchera 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Boreal said: Keep it up. Much appreciated. Thank you. 12z NAM is running so will post something once more panels are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Please stop with the Kuchera Jeeez, I literally posted it's likely crap, take a chill pill dude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhotdog Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I guess your walking to get your whopper Ralph? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1” here and ripping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now