hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Can you explain that to me? Like, it still has to go somewhere. “If its windy, snowflakes can fracture, losing their "lacy" structure and leading to lower accumulations (lower snow ratios). Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.” https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Very smart people here, unlike the mid atlantic dummies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This is too funny not to share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: “If its windy, snowflakes can fracture, losing their "lacy" structure and leading to lower accumulations (lower snow ratios). Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.” https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios So would we be seeing 10-1 ratios? Or could it be higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: So would be seeing 10-1 ratios? Or could it be higher? I wouldn't put too much concern into it. The wind will bust up the flakes to the point of affecting ratios, but it will damn sure look awesome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Some of you guys aren't familiar with how a coastal works and it shows. The coastal points see the gale winds...and higher elevations in E PA. But these are 10m winds during the height of the snowfall here in SE PA. 17knots max near my area? We get out best winds when the damage is done and the snow has mostly moved out: Winds won't knock down the totals as much as 20 degree temps will fluff up the accums in the Del Valley. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some of you guys aren't familiar with how a coastal works and it shows. The coastal points see the gale winds...and higher elevations in E PA. But these are 10m winds during the height of the snowfall here in SE PA. 17knots max? We get out best winds when the damage is done and the snow has mostly moved out: Winds won't knock down the totals as much as 20 degree temps will fluff up the accums in the Del Valley. Damn plebs here spreading bad info. Send em back to the mid atlantic ralph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Along with everything else, looking forward to seeing sat pics of the storm—wondering if it will develop an “eye”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Needles at these temps. We aren't talking mangled flakes and plates. https://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/class/class-old.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Latest HRRR still has light snow breaking out before sunrise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2m Temps during height of the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 fwiw…hearing the RGEM looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: fwiw…hearing the RGEM looks good. This better not be another Lucy. Seems like far E PA might be catching a rare late break headed into this storm. This time a day and a half ago I was barely expecting a coating from the PRE or whatever we r calling it starting in the AM with the Saturday coastal just grazing. Now things are getting interesting. Iceman might be in for a surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: fwiw…hearing the RGEM looks good. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022012800&fh=28 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This better not be another Lucy. Seems like far E PA might be catching a rare late break headed into this storm. This time a day and a half ago I was barely expecting a coating from the PRE or whatever we r calling it starting in the AM. That's what I'm calling it, especially for my neck of the woods. Red=PRE Blue="Main event" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This better not be another Lucy. Seems like far E PA might be catching a rare late break headed into this storm. This time a day and a half ago I was barely expecting a coating from the PRE or whatever we r calling it starting in the AM. Yeah, I’ve been reluctant to say it but maybe we’re actually trending into something for a change instead of out of it. When I started this thread this morning, I was thinking maybe C-1” imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 37 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Very smart people here, unlike the mid atlantic dummies Not cool 7 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022012800&fh=28 Oh wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022012800&fh=28 Does that hint at a possible retrograde? Man, this one's coming down to the wire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, I’ve been reluctant to say it but maybe we’re actually trending into something for a change instead of out of it. When I started this thread this morning, I was thinking maybe C-1” imby. 0z starting off spectacular. Im sure the gfs will be in soon to buck the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Does that hint at a possible retrograde? Man, this one's coming down to the wire! I'm not watching the low trend west. I've been watching the convection and heaviest banding moving west and expanding over the last 18 hours. Alot is in response to how quickly this will deepen. When these stack and occlude there is a natural tendency to tug the low left of center which is why we are seeing a tuck on the mesos. This is only like 20 miles now from the benchmark for extreme E PA areas and points S and E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 43 minutes ago, mattinpa said: So would we be seeing 10-1 ratios? Or could it be higher? I think 12-1 is certainly a possibility. More in the beginning with less wind less during height 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Nice link. This is the money shot: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Don't be soft Ralph. You climbed my power rankings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some of you guys aren't familiar with how a coastal works and it shows. The coastal points see the gale winds...and higher elevations in E PA. But these are 10m winds during the height of the snowfall here in SE PA. 17knots max near my area? We get out best winds when the damage is done and the snow has mostly moved out: Winds won't knock down the totals as much as 20 degree temps will fluff up the accums in the Del Valley. 17 knots are 20 mph. And I believe that is sustained. Dude, you’re way over estimating. Funny also, that’s at the surface. Cmon man. I remember like it was yesterday and Ray would come in here at laugh at folks that thought we’d get 15-1. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Here is the 0z HRW FV3 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z GFS back to that (phantom) double-low issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 0z GFS back to that (phantom) double-low issue. Yes but it’s getting better every run. Finally looking more like the other models. Hoping there’s still some trending to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4-8" upping me totals for PHL boys! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, mattinpa said: So would we be seeing 10-1 ratios? Or could it be higher? In a situation like this, I would recommend a 12:1 ratio. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: In a situation like this, I would recommend a 12:1 ratio. Thanks - sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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