January 28th/29th Event Obs - From KU to FU?

[Hurricane Agnes]

Mt. Holly's approx snowfall reported map -

Also saw that KPHL had a daily snowfall record for 1/29 broken -

Quote

SXUS71 KPHI 292204
 RERPHL
 
 RECORD EVENT REPORT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
 0458 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2022
 
 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...
 
 A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 5.8 WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY.
 THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 5.0 SET IN 1904. SNOWFALL RECORDS 
 BEGAN IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA ON OCTOBER 1, 1884.
 
 $$
 
 STAARMANN

 

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Mt. Holly's approx snowfall reported map -

Also saw that KPHL had a daily snowfall record for 1/29 broken -

 

Apart from being just a tad low in the northern 2/3 of Somerset and eastern Morris, I thought the NWS did a superb job on this forecast with the vast majority of people being within their forecast ranges or very close to them (and people on the edge of a forecast swath shouldn't be surprised if they end up on the adjacent swath), as per the final forecast map, below vs. the actual above.  

On another note, if any Philly folks are reading this, any reports from Center City/South Philly?  A guy I know is claiming he only got 4" in South Philly and that the forecast for Philly was a bust, despite reports from the airport, Fairmount Park and Chestnut Hill showing 6"+.  There had been a preliminary report of 4.5" from South Phillly before the storm was over, but no final report from there or Center City.  

Again, @MGorse- if you weigh in on the above post, maybe you could here, too.  Also always wondered whether the preliminary reports don't end up in the final PNS because somebody simply didn't update their report after the storm was over or do you guys weed out reports you think might not be credible?  

[KamuSnow]

Got 4.2" here from the coastal and with the 1.9" from Friday adds up to 6.1" total. Made it to 8F early this morning, a new low for the season. Got that squeaky sound when you walk on the snow in cold weather, been a while for that. A beautiful morning outside, if a little brisk, lol. Here is the updated snow pile, looks pretty happy!

[MGorse]

11 hours ago, RU848789 said:

MGorse in the house, thanks!!  Are you still at Mt. Holly?  Had been wondering if the NWS wasn't allowing employees to post on social media or something, since it's been a long time since I saw any NWS mets posting (or maybe I'm not paying enough attention).  

Two other questions if you don't mind.  First, @JERSEYSNOWROBin a thread on this on 33 said he had been told that the ASOS station is at the airport, like you confirmed, but that the snowfall measurements for "Philadelphia Int'l Airport" are taken across the river in National Park NJ.  Is that correct?  

Finally, yesterday, a met showed me how to find the forecast snow/liquid ratio in the point forecast matrices (which list QPF and snowfall, so one can easily do the math for snow ratios).  For yesterday, it was showing 13.8:1 for NYC, while Kuchera was 15:1.  Do you guys have some in-house ratio calculation and more importantly, do the NWS snowfall maps include a correction for ratios (vs. being 10:1 ratio maps)?  Would love to know the answers to these questions.  Thanks!!

I continue to post here from time to time, and yes I am still at NWS Mount Holly. The PHL measurement has not been taken in National Park, NJ in years. It is done at the airport. Airport’s are not the best places to measure snow but they do their best. 

As for snow ratios, we have in-house tools where we can blend different models to get the values desired. WPC also provides guidance on the ratios. Lots of internal collaboration occurs especially with big events like yesterday. We then use tools that take the forecast QPF and apply the selected ratios to give snowfall amounts. This can also account for temperatures as well. So in short, our forecast snowfall does account for ratios. 

[MGorse]

20 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Apart from being just a tad low in the northern 2/3 of Somerset and eastern Morris, I thought the NWS did a superb job on this forecast with the vast majority of people being within their forecast ranges or very close to them (and people on the edge of a forecast swath shouldn't be surprised if they end up on the adjacent swath), as per the final forecast map, below vs. the actual above.  

On another note, if any Philly folks are reading this, any reports from Center City/South Philly?  A guy I know is claiming he only got 4" in South Philly and that the forecast for Philly was a bust, despite reports from the airport, Fairmount Park and Chestnut Hill showing 6"+.  There had been a preliminary report of 4.5" from South Phillly before the storm was over, but no final report from there or Center City.  

Again, @MGorse- if you weigh in on the above post, maybe you could here, too.  Also always wondered whether the preliminary reports don't end up in the final PNS because somebody simply didn't update their report after the storm was over or do you guys weed out reports you think might not be credible?  

If we do not receive an updated report or final report then that is removed from the PNS. This is because it then becomes less representative. We do our best to quality control all reports but there are times when some slip through. If we catch it later then it is removed. We usually get tons of reports for snow events (overwhelming at times). Also, keep in mind that the airports that measure snow (PHL, ABE, ILG and ACY in our area) continue to measure and report every 6 hours. 

[Violentweatherfan]

Question for @MGorse. During a Miller B storm is there really no transfer of energy to the coast for redevelopment.

It's actually not a transfer of energy. That terminology is incorrectly used many times. What happens is that the primary low is becoming more vertically stacked, and thus losing upper level support (differential vorticity and temperature advections). The best upper level dynamics are now out ahead of the primary low, and as it reaches the coast where a natural baroclinic zone is present between the warm ocean and cold land, a secondary low develops.

First of all in no way am I referencing yesterday's storm, just Miller B's in general and do you agree with the above.

[RU848789]

Sorry if I missed it, but I think our forecasters at the NWS (and many of our posters, too, who did quite well) deserve some love for a bang on forecast for 95% of the Philly-NYC CWAs and where there were misses, they were typically at the edges of forecast swaths where one can't be too disappointed if ending up in the next lowest swath (not major busts).  Here are the final forecasts from 4 pm Friday vs. actuals.  

 

 

 

 

Allsnow, NJwxguy78 and Jake302 like this

[MGorse]

36 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Question for @MGorse. During a Miller B storm is there really no transfer of energy to the coast for redevelopment.

It's actually not a transfer of energy. That terminology is incorrectly used many times. What happens is that the primary low is becoming more vertically stacked, and thus losing upper level support (differential vorticity and temperature advections). The best upper level dynamics are now out ahead of the primary low, and as it reaches the coast where a natural baroclinic zone is present between the warm ocean and cold land, a secondary low develops.

First of all in no way am I referencing yesterday's storm, just Miller B's in general and do you agree with the above.

 

I feel like I am being interviewed. Lol. That statement sums it up well. Many times this is being said incorrectly because the energy is not being transferred. New coastal low develops due to incoming upper level support (results in surface pressure falls) while the inland low weakens then dissipates as the upper level support leaves it behind. 

[RU848789]

47 minutes ago, MGorse said:

I continue to post here from time to time, and yes I am still at NWS Mount Holly. The PHL measurement has not been taken in National Park, NJ in years. It is done at the airport. Airport’s are not the best places to measure snow but they do their best. 

As for snow ratios, we have in-house tools where we can blend different models to get the values desired. WPC also provides guidance on the ratios. Lots of internal collaboration occurs especially with big events like yesterday. We then use tools that take the forecast QPF and apply the selected ratios to give snowfall amounts. This can also account for temperatures as well. So in short, our forecast snowfall does account for ratios. 

 

40 minutes ago, MGorse said:

If we do not receive an updated report or final report then that is removed from the PNS. This is because it then becomes less representative. We do our best to quality control all reports but there are times when some slip through. If we catch it later then it is removed. We usually get tons of reports for snow events (overwhelming at times). Also, keep in mind that the airports that measure snow (PHL, ABE, ILG and ACY in our area) continue to measure and report every 6 hours. 

Mike - great to hear you're still there and posting here on occasion - and fantastic job on the forecast for this storm, as per what I just posted in this thread.  You guys get enough grief, I'm sure, when forecasts don't pan out, especially from the public, who generally have zero clue how exquisitely difficult it is to get snowfall forecasts correct, given the complexities of most systems we deal with in this area, plus the limitations of NWP for chaotic, highly uncertain systems, like the weather; forecasts have gotten a lot better, but are still not capable of always getting these things correct.  

And I can't thank you enough on the insights on snow/liquid ratios, as I've asked that question more than a few times on weather boards and not gotten a response as helpful as this.  Always thought you guys did the snowfall maps including in-house ratio adjustments, but couldn't be 100% sure.  

Also, thanks for confirming what I thought on the PNS reports on snowfall and how the final ones are determined and for the info on the measurements being done at the airport now.  As an aside, would you think a 4" report from South Philly would likely be wrong?  Seems like it would be or maybe a measurement error given blowing/drifting.  Thanks again!!

[MGorse]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Also, thanks for confirming what I thought on the PNS reports on snowfall and how the final ones are determined and for the info on the measurements being done at the airport now.  As an aside, would you think a 4" report from South Philly would likely be wrong?  Seems like it would be or maybe a measurement error given blowing/drifting.  Thanks again!!

There were several 3-6 inch reports in New Castle County, DE. Given that and some other reports in Philly, I would say 4 inches in south Philly is too low. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

44 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Apart from being just a tad low in the northern 2/3 of Somerset and eastern Morris, I thought the NWS did a superb job on this forecast with the vast majority of people being within their forecast ranges or very close to them (and people on the edge of a forecast swath shouldn't be surprised if they end up on the adjacent swath), as per the final forecast map, below vs. the actual above.  

On another note, if any Philly folks are reading this, any reports from Center City/South Philly?  A guy I know is claiming he only got 4" in South Philly and that the forecast for Philly was a bust, despite reports from the airport, Fairmount Park and Chestnut Hill showing 6"+.  There had been a preliminary report of 4.5" from South Phillly before the storm was over, but no final report from there or Center City.  

Again, @MGorse- if you weigh in on the above post, maybe you could here, too.  Also always wondered whether the preliminary reports don't end up in the final PNS because somebody simply didn't update their report after the storm was over or do you guys weed out reports you think might not be credible?  

I agree that Mt. Holly did an excellent job trying to deal with what I have continually referenced as the "dancing lows" and the east/west model mayhem that ensued because of that.

I live in Chestnut Hill and I saw that report, which was higher than what I measured, although it was done via a "Public" report (not mine) and not by a Co-Op/trained spotter.  The neighborhood itself has residences of many types, from small 2-story row homes to large mansions and estates that have horse stables, and all are scattered at many different elevations, including those at the highest points of the city, and that can impact the observations (I expect dependent on whether they are on the windward or lee sides of the hills).  I know what is usually joked about with respect to measurements that involve simply sticking a yardstick or ruler through the snowpack to the grass then submitting that (this is what most who are perhaps more than casually following the weather, but who are not quite at the higher "hobby" level of interest, will do)...   

I know what all is involved with really trying to "do it right" and also know that I have so many hobbies that trying to dedicate to actually doing it on a regular/consistent basis to be part of the "official record", is a pretty significant investment in time. And that includes the need to really live in a place that could meet the criteria for measurements (which many of us in the city do not have the luxury of being in because our properties are not "suburban" with 1/3rd or 1/2 or more acres where snowboards can be placed in an unobstructed location - for example, at least twice the distance away as the height of the house and other "obstacles", etc.).  Most who live in urban locations have no backyard at all and may just have a roof terrace or have postage stamp sized backyards or patios or courtyards, myself included.  And you saw a pic from the guy in South Philly (I presume taken from his window) looking out on what was probably a 1-way, 1 lane South Philly street with parking on one side, and a typical row of 3-story older "townhouse" style/front-stoop houses that might only have a small yard or paved courtyard out back.

But it's a good experience to get the IMBY readings - and in my case as an avid gardener (particularly container plants including tropicals, subtropicals, and tender perennials) - the weather is a critical factor in the success of those plants surviving and thriving.

[Violentweatherfan]

17 minutes ago, MGorse said:

I feel like I am being interviewed. Lol. That statement sums it up well. Many times this is being said incorrectly because the energy is not being transferred. New coastal low develops due to incoming upper level support (results in surface pressure falls) while the inland low weakens then dissipates as the upper level support leaves it behind. 

Thanks, no interview from me. I have brought this up many times when I see someone post "energy transfer" and mention there is no transfer and the term is incorrect.

I just wanted to be sure, thanks.

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Thanks, no interview from me. I have brought this up many times when I see someone post "energy transfer" and mention there is no transfer and the term is incorrect.

I just wanted to be sure, thanks.

Thanks for asking. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

There were several 3-6 inch reports in New Castle County, DE. Given that and some other reports in Philly, I would say 4 inches in south Philly is too low. 

I assume you meant Delaware County, which borders Philly, not New Castle, plus neighboring Camden Co. locations were all above 7", also making a 4" South Philly measurement unlikely, but particualrly the Philly measurements NW of South Philly, where one might think less snow fell as generally was the case from SE to NW in this storm.  Thanks.  

Edit for @MGorse- now I'm confused, as the NWS just put up a new PNS, re-adding all the deleted, incomplete reports for Philadelphia County and elsewhere.  Was that supposed to happen?  

Public Information Statement
 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
 1150 AM EST Sun Jan 30 2022

...Philadelphia County...
 1 W Belmont                  8.9 in    1230 PM 01/29   Trained Spotter      
 Philadelphia Internati       7.5 in    0100 PM 01/29   ASOS                 
 Rittenhouse Square           6.2 in    0924 AM 01/29   Public               
 Rockledge SE                 6.1 in    0730 AM 01/29   COCORAHS             
 Fox Chase                    6.1 in    0730 AM 01/29   Trained Spotter      
 Chestnut Hill                6.1 in    0207 PM 01/29   Public               
 1 SE Point Breeze            6.0 in    1000 AM 01/29   Trained Spotter      
 Philadelphia 4.7 NE          5.0 in    0730 AM 01/29   COCORAHS             
 Philadelphia                 5.0 in    0830 AM 01/29   Broadcast Media      
 Manayunk                     4.5 in    0820 AM 01/29   Public               
 South Philadelphia           4.5 in    1027 AM 01/29   Public               
 1 S Philadelphia             4.0 in    0730 AM 01/29   Trained Spotter      

[ChasingFlakes]

After my sunset hike in Valley Forge, I set my alarm for 3:30am and shot over to Harvey Cedars in LBI to catch the snowy sunrise and whatever leftover swell was still in the water.  I knew it'd be worth it.

Here's some pics I took on my cell, haven't uploaded the pics from my DSLR yet.

Waist deep drifts and waist-chest high sets. 

Bonus Valley Forge pic:

[MGorse]

7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I assume you meant Delaware County, which borders Philly, not New Castle, plus neighboring Camden Co. locations were all above 7", also making a 4" South Philly measurement unlikely, but particualrly the Philly measurements NW of South Philly, where one might think less snow fell as generally was the case from SE to NW in this storm.  Thanks.  

Edit for @MGorse- now I'm confused, as the NWS just put up a new PNS, re-adding all the deleted, incomplete reports for Philadelphia County and elsewhere.  Was that supposed to happen?  

Public Information Statement
 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
 1150 AM EST Sun Jan 30 2022

...Philadelphia County...
 1 W Belmont                  8.9 in    1230 PM 01/29   Trained Spotter      
 Philadelphia Internati       7.5 in    0100 PM 01/29   ASOS                 
 Rittenhouse Square           6.2 in    0924 AM 01/29   Public               
 Rockledge SE                 6.1 in    0730 AM 01/29   COCORAHS             
 Fox Chase                    6.1 in    0730 AM 01/29   Trained Spotter      
 Chestnut Hill                6.1 in    0207 PM 01/29   Public               
 1 SE Point Breeze            6.0 in    1000 AM 01/29   Trained Spotter      
 Philadelphia 4.7 NE          5.0 in    0730 AM 01/29   COCORAHS             
 Philadelphia                 5.0 in    0830 AM 01/29   Broadcast Media      
 Manayunk                     4.5 in    0820 AM 01/29   Public               
 South Philadelphia           4.5 in    1027 AM 01/29   Public               
 1 S Philadelphia             4.0 in    0730 AM 01/29   Trained Spotter      

No I referenced New Castle County because that is farther southwest and had 3-6 inches. The 4-5 inch reports in Philadelphia County seen too low. 
 

As for that PNS, I am not sure why those old reports were added back in. 

[21chuck]

10 hours ago, RU848789 said:

On another note, if any Philly folks are reading this, any reports from Center City/South Philly?  A guy I know is claiming he only got 4" in South Philly and that the forecast for Philly was a bust, despite reports from the airport, Fairmount Park and Chestnut Hill showing 6"+.  There had been a preliminary report of 4.5" from South Phillly before the storm was over, but no final report from there or Center City.  

I live in south philly near the Italian market. I have a back patio that is pretty well wind protected (I know wind had a major impact on folks ability to measure elsewhere). My set up/technique is perhaps not the most sophisticated. I have a plastic bin that is maybe 20"x30" and I turned it upside down and I measured when the snow concluded noon Saturday and got 6 inches on the dot. I feel pretty good about that reading. It didnt include anything that fell Friday morning since that had all melted by sunset. Photo demonstrates the set up haha. Measured the bin on the right.

Edit: to be clear photo was taken a few hours before my measurement

[Hurricane Agnes]

12 hours ago, 21chuck said:

I live in south philly near the Italian market. I have a back patio that is pretty well wind protected (I know wind had a major impact on folks ability to measure elsewhere). My set up/technique is perhaps not the most sophisticated. I have a plastic bin that is maybe 20"x30" and I turned it upside down and I measured when the snow concluded noon Saturday and got 6 inches on the dot. I feel pretty good about that reading. It didnt include anything that fell Friday morning since that had all melted by sunset. Photo demonstrates the set up haha. Measured the bin on the right.

Edit: to be clear photo was taken a few hours before my measurement

I'm hoping others here realize that yours is reflecting a typical "urban" setup  for those who even have a patio, terrace, or small back or front yard to take a reading from. Many of the older city row homes (e.g., the huge housing stock of such built in the '20s - '30s through the '50s) have a shared driveway out back with a cement entrance strip to a garage and possibly a strip of grass along the side of that. 

I.e., something along the lines of this -

Those without a garage usually have some sort of small patio out back.  Other housing stock of "twins" (semi-deattached) homes may have a larger back/front yard but not by much.  Many of the older rim towns have similar housing setups that were built before the advent of the sprawling rancher/split-level/Cape Cod-style housing developments and these older, more densely-built homes may be adjacent to those developments.

Unfortunately, much of the criteria strives for "perfect conditions" and that can miss "the reality" of urban/older town dwellers by being biased towards suburban developments and rural areas (whether it is for temperature readings or snow measurements). 

[RU848789]

17 hours ago, 21chuck said:

I live in south philly near the Italian market. I have a back patio that is pretty well wind protected (I know wind had a major impact on folks ability to measure elsewhere). My set up/technique is perhaps not the most sophisticated. I have a plastic bin that is maybe 20"x30" and I turned it upside down and I measured when the snow concluded noon Saturday and got 6 inches on the dot. I feel pretty good about that reading. It didnt include anything that fell Friday morning since that had all melted by sunset. Photo demonstrates the set up haha. Measured the bin on the right.

Edit: to be clear photo was taken a few hours before my measurement

Thanks!  How much did you get during the day on Friday - looks like people are including that...

[21chuck]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks!  How much did you get during the day on Friday - looks like people are including that...

I wasn't home but got up to maybe an inch or half inch across the river in university city so somewhere in that ballpark. 

[ChasingFlakes]

I never got around to posting the pics from my camera after this storm, one of them was featured by The Inertia to promote their 2022 Surf Photo Contest that I entered.

Here's the one that was featured:

 

Here's a side by side of the same location in Harvey Cedars, first pic taken 1/30, the other 7/19.

 

More images from my DSLR:

 

If you want any of these as prints, just message me.   

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I never got around to posting the pics from my camera after this storm, one of them was featured by The Inertia to promote their 2022 Surf Photo Contest that I entered.

Here's the one that was featured:

 

Here's a side by side of the same location in Harvey Cedars, first pic taken 1/30, the other 7/19.

 

More images from my DSLR:

 

If you want any of these as prints, just message me.   

Great pics!  I can just feel the cold winds blowing over the top of those breaking waves!