Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Someone buy the GFS a beer. It's been virtually the same for days on end, it has to be right, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yep, I'm putting my money on the GFS. Probably 1-3" for most but maybe a warning level event at the shore. Oh well. On to next winter... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I know Ralph likes to sometimes post the RAP and since it is in range, I noticed that (well...since it updates hourly) it was hugging that same Florida low and then suddenly loses it and that continues to suggest how these models are dealing with that and the low that forms off the Carolinas. I am in the camp of not to completely discount the GFS but to perhaps weight to towards the others because if some kind of dry slot appears with any banding, some might get a bigger thump initially and they are done but others might have to wait to make up for it if they get under a band as it pivots over them when the storm moves away to the NE. This will be a fast mover so that might be a factor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 My First Forecast Pass on this "event" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 FWIW - the HRW FV3 (although it's not in range yet for the latter part of the storm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 After 12z I'm revising c-2" N and W, 2-4" 95 4-8" at the shore. Won't be surprised if this is overdone though. May end up being a C-2" for most other than the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: After 12z I'm revising c-2" N and W, 2-4" 95 4-8" at the shore. Won't be surprised if this is overdone though. May end up being a C-2" for most other than the shore. No cliff jumping!!!! Will throw the 12z ICON in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 C-1" Lehigh Valley Upper SEPA counties 1-3" Lower counties and Philly 3-6" Jersey 5-12" west to east Snow expectations imby 2" snow broom and dust pan ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Mt. Holly current Watches/Warnings - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 My street has been brined. Hope I have better storm obs than that in the day(s) ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: My street has been brined. Hope I have better storm obs than that in the day(s) ahead. if you don't get the snow, think of all that brine and salt dust you get in inhale till Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z ECM with the elongated low chasing convection well east again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM with the elongated low chasing convection well east again Still 6-7" here, so sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Still 6-7" here, so sign me up Somewhere there is a contract Boston signed that they get a historic blizzard almost every winter now 3" here on the ECM with ratios 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If I lived in the N&W Boston burbs I would be tired of snow, be like oh man really another garden variety MECS or HECS better work on the snow blower again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM with the elongated low chasing convection well east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: No blocking doomed us this would be one measured in feet the track was fine but nothing to force the wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Things are actually good at H5 on the Euro, so there’s room for better. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for more than 3-4 inches here, but still some time especially when little changes mean a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: No blocking doomed us this would be one measured in feet the track was fine but nothing to force the wrap around I agree. The progressiveness of it will certainly limit the potential. Probably an artifact of La Nina and that +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Way beyond it's useful range, but the HRRR is showing the PRE event. Could very well vanish on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Still 6-7" here, so sign me up Ain't you in PA Ralph? What the heck map are you looking at!! Must be a Kuchera guy I seen what I need to see. 2-5" in PHL. 3-7" in SNJ. 4-9" down the shore. Locked and loaded folks. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Way beyond it's useful range, but the HRRR is showing the PRE event. Could very well vanish on the next run. 18z NAM is running right now and has this interesting thing. I just heard Steve Sosna on KYW talking about that being "a front" (which is what I had termed it earlier). He even said don't be surprised to get "snow showers", etc., but was obviously not the "main event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 18z NAM is running right now and has this interesting thing. I just heard Steve Sosna on KYW talking about that being "a front" (which is what I had termed it earlier). He even said don't be surprised to get "snow showers", etc., but was obviously not the "main event". Yes, looking at the NAM verbatim, looks like snow breaks out as early as 8am tomorrow NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yes, looking at the NAM verbatim, looks like snow breaks out as early as 8am tomorrow NW of the city. KYW repeated Sosna's report and this time I caught when he said "don't be surprised if some areas get "a coating to an inch" outta that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z NAM holding steady with an amped-up low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Oh look, another meltdown in the MA forums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 WSW for Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: WSW for Jersey coast. i expect that was going to be a given and what to do with the potential gradient areas would be a bit trickier to decide regarding where to draw the line between a WSW and WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Current WSW - Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 337 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-281000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth- Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest 337 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through mid afternoon Saturday before diminishing Saturday evening. Strong winds may generate blowing snow and very low visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ And Watch - Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 337 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-104- 106-281000- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Middlesex- Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 337 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through early Saturday afternoon before diminishing late in the day. Winds may generate areas of blowing snow and low visibilities at times. The storm total snow forecast remains a bit uncertain as there will likely be a sharp cutoff in the northwest extent of the highest snowfall totals, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this winter storm. && $$ Fitzsimmons/Staarmann 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 LOL at the GFS. We're back, baby!! All hail the king! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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