wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: 4-8" upping me totals for PHL boys! As I said last night. GFS was all alone. And it’s caving. Boom! Happy for you up there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Yes but it’s getting better every run. Finally looking more like the other models. Hoping there’s still some trending to go. Some eye candy for ya! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: As I said last night. GFS was all alone. And it’s caving. Boom! Happy for you up there! I fly to Palm Beach in like 8 hours lol. I bumped my flight up 4 days ago to leave early Friday instead of mid-day Saturday - THANK THE LORD! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I fly to Palm Beach in like 8 hours lol. I bumped my flight up 4 days ago to leave early Friday instead of mid-day Saturday - THANK THE LORD! Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'd be thrilled with half that jackpot sitting over old barney and my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Canadian is bombing that sucka out right off the coast (and had that "double low" thing going on to boot). ETA the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My historical analogy of this storm in the 25+ years of doing this is the banding of the tucked in low will be the driver of jackpots and busts in our forecast area. So many times I have seen these coastal lows start to retrograde in late short range models around the benchmark and pop off some serious banding issues as the low closes off early due to more convection. This storm is modeling to be a very similar situation to past storms that I have seen. The western fringes areas of this snow may do very well if banding holds as reverse orographic lifting takes place over the South and Blue Mts. Montgomery/Bucks County into Lehigh and Northampton may overperform because of this situation. I would not be surprised that winter storm warnings are extended up into these counties tomorrow if the short range models continue to indicate retrograding of the LP. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 37 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Thanks - sounds reasonable For events like this (no temp issues, non clipper system), 12:1 has worked out well for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Initial low confidence guess for the Lehigh Valley was 1-3"...maybe time to bump that up to 2-4" or 3-6"? Tomorrow's guidance is going to be important, as well as comparing tonight's models to tomorrow's observations in about 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Initial low confidence guess for the Lehigh Valley was 1-3"...maybe time to bump that up to 2-4" or 3-6"? Tomorrow's guidance is going to be important, as well as comparing tonight's models to tomorrow's observations in about 12-24 hours. I agree the 12Z runs tomorrow will be the final nail in the coffin. Its been a longtime to wait this close to the actual storm event to even have any confidence. Usually the Nam/Euro combo works well but they are even jumping around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 DT first call and yes the blue line is directly over my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 For the late night tired blind people like myself. He really needs to upgrade his snowfall map presentation...been like this for 20yrs. 27F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: For the late night tired blind people like myself. He really needs to upgrade his snowfall map presentation...been like this for 20yrs. 27F Zoomed in I realize the blue line is actually 2 miles to the southeast of my head I am equally blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: Zoomed in I realize the blue line is actually 2 miles to the southeast of my head I am equally blind IMO, it's basically it's 4-7"-ish for both of us and would lean toward the higher amounts due to the fluff factor... 27F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: IMO, it's basically it's 4-7"-ish for both of us and would lean toward the higher amounts due to the fluff factor... 27F ECM ticked 10 miles NW and agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Decent/good chance Atlantic City cracks 30" after this and it's still January...the new Allentown. 26F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 39 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Decent/good chance Atlantic City cracks 30" after this and it's still January...the new Allentown. 26F yep, I agree this year. Allentown is having to trouble just cracking 6 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, Albedoman said: yep, I agree this year. Allentown is having to trouble just cracking 6 inches I think the majority, if not all of us here in SE PA (and further W burbs...Reading/Allentown) are still in single digit accumulations. (under 8"?) Kinda wacky but good for the NJ folks who usually get screwed... 27F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Anyone up for the NAM? WOW!! That should produce good totals before it gets past us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Holy hell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, mattinpa said: Anyone up for the NAM? WOW!! Yeah, looking good... 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Yeah, looking good... 26F Ok with that going I’m going to bed. Night! Hope the NAM leads the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now issued 3:23am. Jacked up amounts at bit... 27F Active Weather Alerts WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED: 3:23 AM JAN. 28, 2022 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Accumulating snow is expected to begin Friday evening, becoming heavy at times Friday night through Saturday morning. Snowfall rates near one inch per hour are possible, with significant reductions in visibility. Snow will diminish late Saturday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM ticked 15-20 miles NW That little bit is enough to bump Philly into a MECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Blizzard Warning for all shore points 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM ticked 15-20 miles NW That little bit is enough to bump Philly into a MECS Probably way overdone on the Nam obviously, but you never know, it nailed 2016 when every other model was farther E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z Euro wasn't as amped as the NAM but has the crazy flappy low and was also faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The Vineland native heave ho crew got busy from thousands of miles away - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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