Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Seems like CBS3 is most aggressive with the totals showing 6-8" for PHL.No one else seems to be going past 2/4 3/6 I wonder what they are seeing that the other channels aren't. I guess no one forecasts on snow ratios anymore Hmmm??? It will be snowing at 22-25 degrees I would think snow ratios of 15:1 so if the model is showing you 4-6" you can end up with 6-10". I don't know maybe I am missing something here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I guess no one forecasts on snow ratios anymore Hmmm??? It will be snowing at 22-25 degrees I would think snow ratios of 15:1 so if the model is showing you 4-6" you can end up with 6-10". I don't know maybe I am missing something here?? I would add dendrite growth with the wind begs for tiny flakes and lower ratios. Not low low, but more towards 12:1. this place could be rocking after 00z. EPS spread is west, and boy the ensembles are dragging west! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 SREF plumes for total snow have gone up in E PA (KABE) if you compare 21Z to 15Z. Seems to be something else on which to hang ultimately dashed hopes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, kpantz said: SREF plumes for total snow have gone up in E PA (KABE) if you compare 21Z to 15Z. Seems to be something else on which to hang ultimately dashed hopes. I was just looking at those myself. Rooting for you guys to score; one SREF member has 30" for PHL. Better ride that one! Mean is 8.31" in Philly. That's almost double the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I was just looking at those myself. Rooting for you guys to score; one SREF member has 30" for PHL. Better ride that one! Mean is 8.31" in Philly. That's almost double the previous run.One of worst models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: One of worst models . That's totally not the point. We're all junkies for digital snow, and the anticipation for such an event is like buying a lotto ticket. Most likely not a winner, but could be... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 45 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I guess no one forecasts on snow ratios anymore Hmmm??? It will be snowing at 22-25 degrees I would think snow ratios of 15:1 so if the model is showing you 4-6" you can end up with 6-10". I don't know maybe I am missing something here?? 28 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: I would add dendrite growth with the wind begs for tiny flakes and lower ratios. Not low low, but more towards 12:1. this place could be rocking after 00z. EPS spread is west, and boy the ensembles are dragging west! The wind will limit ratio's, breaking down the dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: That's totally not the point. We're all junkies for digital snow, and the anticipation for such an event is like buying a lotto ticket. Most likely not a winner, but could be... I just took a look at the SREFs and there's a panel showing that other low. Someone posted about it actually still being around coming off of Florida and then heading up to the NE with the Carolina low chasing it and you sortof see that here. So it seems the east-west jogs might be associated with that interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I don’t know anything about anything but do you think a wind advisory is warranted in these western areas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well well well, hello there 0z NAM… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM brings some high totals into PHL. Will the GFS??????????? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Well well well, hello there 0z NAM… Much better. Needs to get going a little sooner to bring those huge totals west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well well well, hello there 0z NAM…Indeed. Instead of the curly shuffle its the westward. Some help form the south……??Sent from my iPad using TapatalkAnd did we just get Nam’d…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'm personally frustrated that we can't get a solid idea of what is going on, drives me nuts. If I'm recapping correctly for PHL: NAM is around 12" GFS is around 4" Euro is about 6" That's just such a big difference! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Regular NAM on top…and the 3km that came west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Regular NAM on top…and the 3km that came west as well Can you post 10-1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Kuchera and weatherbell maps are a recipe for failed expectations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So does Kuchera do well in the current conditions for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Regular NAM on top…and the 3km that came west as well I will take that 10" of fluff and run like hell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Can you post 10-1? Should be 15-18:1 Action News actually suggested 20:1 ratios. They said colder n and west in upper teens so even if lighter precip will pile up fast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I will take that 10" of fluff and run like hell Ralph, I want your take on it. What are you thinking for PHL given the discrepancies? Go with middle ground Euro rather than higher NAM and lower GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: So does Kuchera do well in the current conditions for the storm? I dont like Kucera but they may be closer to reality this time around due to the high ratios in E PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont like Kucera but they may be closer to reality this time around due to the high ratios in E PA The wind ralph, the wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont like Kucera but they may be closer to reality this time around due to the high ratios in E PA The wind will knock those back Ralph . Cmon, you know better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 35 minutes ago, Lady Di said: I don’t know anything about anything but do you think a wind advisory is warranted in these western areas? Miss being your neighbor to the north, Di. Well, I guess I still am, just much farther now lol. I dunno, NAM has upwards of 15-25 knot winds Saturday night peaking around 8pm if I'm reading it right, while the GFS tops out at 15 knots. So pretty gusty for sure, but nothing super spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: The wind will knock those back Ralph . Cmon, you know better Can you explain that to me? Like, it still has to go somewhere. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Ralph, I want your take on it. What are you thinking for PHL given the discrepancies? Go with middle ground Euro rather than higher NAM and lower GFS? 5-10" Philly...probably.closer to the lower end but giving some wiggle room for another bump west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Can you post 10-1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Oh man, the meltdown in the NE forum will be almost to the point of not being able to recover from. You all know those totals aren't going to verify right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Can you explain that to me? Like, it still has to go somewhere. Kinda like your name. Higher winds cancel out dendritic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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