JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Sitting on the outside looking in here in SEPA, what's there to jinx?? Hope everyone sees a little something. Currently 8F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Like the title, it's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 C-4" Reading on east to i476. From i476 to the delaware River 2-6". Across the river 5-10" with 6-12"+ right along the coast. Will narrow the goalposts later tonight. Thought this was gone here in E PA until everything came West 0z and now 6z again. Heck, keep ticking W and maybe nudge those higher totals into E PA? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: C-4" Reading on east to i476. From i476 to the delaware River 2-6". Across the river 5-10" with 6-12"+ right along the coast. Will narrow the goalposts later tonight. Thought this was gone here in E PA until everything came West 0z and now 6z again. Heck, keep ticking W and maybe nudge those higher totals into E PA? Considering the lack of snow west of the city this year. I think many weenies would gladly take that. Ralph, how much of a wind issue is this looking here? Have heard some, but not much talk about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I rarely make forecast calls, but here goes. I will go with 5" along the I95 corridor, and about 4" near "Newmanville" and I think Jerseysnowrob will be the jackpot zone, topping out at 8". What will keep accumulations down is the timing. These storms always exit faster than forecasted, especially when referring to panels in models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yes, with no blocking things will move along. I’m sure most saw HM’s post on the other site about the convection off the FL coast causing issues with the modeling/area of cyclone genesis—something to watch going forward. And yes, I’d sign up for Ralph’s amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Considering the lack of snow west of the city this year. I think many weenies would gladly take that. Ralph, how much of a wind issue is this looking here? Have heard some, but not much talk about it. Gusty but more impactful right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Being in the Lehigh Valley sucks for this one…it might be one of those storms where NYC gets blasted and we just get some light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Is it me or is the NAM trying to bring back the "pre" event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z Euro and its snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Big changes on the NAM. Sharper trof, more NS digging. Snow breaking out here by 9AM tomorrow! Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Is it me or is the NAM trying to bring back the "pre" event? What does the acronym PRE stand for? Or is it just short for pre event snow band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Is it me or is the NAM trying to bring back the "pre" event? Looks almost like a cold front. Waiting for the 12z to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I imagine this is the type of storm track that destroyed Texas Tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well interestingly enough, between 12z on Jan. 28 to 12z on Jan 29, there is a 33 mb change (deepening) on the NAM, so at least that model appears to be having it "bomb" as it comes past here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looks almost like a cold front. Waiting for the 12z to finish. Looks like Hurricane Floyd tbh similar location and pre depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think MECS/HECS is off the table, but the whiffs for 95 seem to be out of the picture for now too. Should be a solid 4-6" along 95 less west and more like 6-10" east. Not bad, should double snow totals in a lot of locations. Bummer though the Euro couldn't be once just this one time. What an awful model this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What does the acronym PRE stand for? Or is it just short for pre event snow band? Yes, like we sometimes see with tropical systems (Floyd, Isaias, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What does the acronym PRE stand for? Or is it just short for pre event snow band? PRE = Predecessor Rain Event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z NBM (looks like what the current forecast seems to go with). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 HRRR says up to 2" from the PRE starting around 7am Friday and says that's it for the entire storm. Even shore points are just grazed by the coastal. Entire look of this system is changing every 12 hrs. So now we r relying on pre for accumulations AND beginning Friday AM now...not overnight Friday....interesting. Have a feeling there will be more surprises/changes with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MGorse said: PRE = Predecessor Rain Event I don't envy you today, Mike. Good luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I think MECS/HECS is off the table, but the whiffs for 95 seem to be out of the picture for now too. Should be a solid 4-6" along 95 less west and more like 6-10" east. Not bad, should double snow totals in a lot of locations. Bummer though the Euro couldn't be once just this one time. What an awful model this winter. Could be more like a 2-4"/4-8" which is the way I'm leaning currently. I don't envy anyone who has to produce maps for the public right now. Flakes literally start in 1 day and we're still not sure if this is absolutely nothing ALA GFS, something decent like the 12K NAM, or something in between like the Euro. Sheesh glad I bumped my flight up regardless, not worth this kinda stress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I have my own following of friends on MeWe the past few years. I used to be on Facebook and Nextdoor but the ads and controlling my newsfeeds just got too much. I like Mewe as the garbage is filtered out and I control my newsfeed and not ad algorithms. This my forecast below that I posted for them 14 hours ago and I am still sticking to it even after todays 12Z runs Well, it's Wednesday evening and the storm on the short range models is an out to sea storm, just like I called it. Very little impact to our area with the major accumulating snow east of the NJ turnpike. I see us getting between 3-5 inches at the very most for the entire storm event unless a major change comes to the models. in the next 24- hours which is still a possibility that I will not rule out. Most of the snow will fall Sat morning. As the arctic front comes through on Friday, light snow will break out in the morning to lunch time. It will be snowing lightly all afternoon and into Friday night. 1-2 inches is possible by midnight. if the roads are treated -no problem. Winter storm watches will most likely go out for counties to the south and especially east of the LV by tomorrow afternoon. For us- a wait and see situation as we are very borderline right now. I just wish we we could have a plowable snow event of 4-6 inches but even that appears unlikely right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I have my own following of friends on MeWe the past few years. I used to be on Facebook and Nextdoor but the ads and controlling my newsfeeds just got too much. I like Mewe as the garbage is filtered out and I control my newsfeed and not ad algorithms. This my forecast below that I posted for them 14 hours ago and I am still sticking to it even after todays 12Z runs Well, it's Wednesday evening and the storm on the short range models is an out to sea storm, just like I called it. Very little impact to our area with the major accumulating snow east of the NJ turnpike. I see us getting between 3-5 inches at the very most for the entire storm event unless a major change comes to the models. in the next 24- hours which is still a possibility that I will not rule out. Most of the snow will fall Sat morning. As the arctic front comes through on Friday, light snow will break out in the morning to lunch time. It will be snowing lightly all afternoon and into Friday night. 1-2 inches is possible by midnight. if the roads are treated -no problem. Winter storm watches will most likely go out for counties to the south and especially east of the LV by tomorrow afternoon. For us- a wait and see situation as we are very borderline right now. I just wish we we could have a plowable snow event of 4-6 inches but even that appears unlikely right now Now the RGEM brings heavy snow to LV… Lol what a dart board right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HRRR says up to 2" from the PRE starting around 7am Friday and says that's it for the entire storm. Even shore points are just grazed by the coastal. Entire look of this susyem is changing every 12 hrs. So now we r relying on pre for accumulations AND beginning Friday AM now...not overnight Friday....interesting. Have a feeling there will be more surprises/changes with this one. The HRW WRF-ARW is reflecting that earlier small event. Kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We actually have some pretty solid agreement now among the models not named the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just saw the title of this thread... love it lol. 12z RGEM isn't too bad, a small cutback from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: We actually have some pretty solid agreement now among the models not named the GFS. I'm gonna posit a guess - and we have to see how it pans out - but right now it is 26 where I am with dp of 8. So the air is very very dry. And what has been mentioned on and off for the past week is that there is supposed to be an arctic intrusion of cold air for this (meaning some high ratio snow as a result). SO I think maybe the GFS is thinking subsidence and atmospheric drying (or over-thinking it - like the opposite "convective feedback" that happens with some model runs of the NAM). I don't know how many storms some of us have been through where returns were directly overhead but resulted in nothing but virga. The last event is exactly what happened to me where I registered "Trace" (as just some flurries) and didn't get anything "measurable" until later that night, and even then, it was just a dusting. The 12z GFS is just starting so will see where it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z GFS is still a bit further east from the others but not as much and has a "weaker" low (in relative terms because it is still pretty strong)than the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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