ldub23 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 13 hours ago, MJO812 said: You say this every season and then the tropics heat up. I wouldnt say every season. Last season when people were saying it was going to be an east coast season and a long lasting season i disagreed and it wasnt. Right now the MJO is supposedly favorable yet nothing is happening. The MJO isnt going to stay favorable and if it goes negative in mid aug the season might not start till mid sept. If the MJO is favorable it sure isnt producing any clouds. If anyone still thinks its going to be an active season please chime in. Here is the 1933 hurricane season animation. How could a season like that or 2004/05 happen? 2 cat4's so close to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 Heat returning to Europe? This might be the reason after the season people use for busted high cane numbers. Everything is interconnected and its possible the same pattern baking Europe is putting a tight snug lid on the tropics. It makes sense that with a super ridge locked in over Europe it would also have the effect of pumping super duper bone dry dusty air into the tropics. It is rather amazing with a supposed favorable MJO its almost impossible for a tropical cloud to form. If i remember right 2003 had a European heat wave with the ATL having alot of weak sauce and out to sea nothings. Like last season it was a 1 storm season with Isabel. Can 1 storm find great conditions in an overall horrid ATL this season? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2022 Share Posted July 24, 2022 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: Heat returning to Europe? This might be the reason after the season people use for busted high cane numbers. Everything is interconnected and its possible the same pattern baking Europe is putting a tight snug lid on the tropics. It makes sense that with a super ridge locked in over Europe it would also have the effect of pumping super duper bone dry dusty air into the tropics. It is rather amazing with a supposed favorable MJO its almost impossible for a tropical cloud to form. If i remember right 2003 had a European heat wave with the ATL having alot of weak sauce and out to sea nothings. Like last season it was a 1 storm season with Isabel. Can 1 storm find great conditions in an overall horrid ATL this season? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1. It is only July 24th! What's happened til now has practically no bearing on how the rest of the season will play out per actual stats. 2. There has been no study connecting European heat and quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons. There was also major European heat in 2019 and 2017. Yet, the Atlantic was active in 2019 with 132 ACE/Dorian/Humberto/18 NS. Also, it was hyperactive in 2017 with the 7th highest ACE/Harvey/Irma/6 MH! Besides, there is no super ridge "locked in" over Europe. What matters most is the setup 1-3 months from now, not the next couple of weeks. 3. In 2003 you said Isabel was going to harmlessly recurve and then your area unfortunately got slammed. Thankfully you were ok, but how can we take you seriously about the rest of the season on the east coast when you blew Isabel so badly just days out? 4. 2003 having "a lot of weak sauce and out to sea nothings"? Well, it had a way above average ACE of 177. Besides Isabel, Fabian was a cat 3-4 for a full week and it slammed Bermuda as a cat 3. Also, H Claudette hit TX. 5. I already gave a reason (3rd year La Nina stats) why I don't think 2022 will end up hyperactive though I still lean to it ending up active. As of now, I'm in the general vicinity of 110-140 ACE. That's significantly above the long-term average even though it is a little below the 150s average since 1995 for non-El Nino seasons. 6. Living not too far inland and thus not wanting to have my family's and my lives badly disrupted, I certainly would love to have less to worry about with the season being weak or at least quiet near the SE US. But I just don't see a weak season nor one not having significant effects on the US. Third year La Nina analogs say watch out Gulf coast of FL especially! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 We’re in the 3rd week of July and we have people posting with certainty that the season is over? I’ve been away from this thread bc we are not in the meat of hurricane season and yet people are declaring it dead or a bust? I’m not even going to justify my reasoning, but please get back to me in October. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 11 hours ago, ldub23 said: Right now the MJO is supposedly favorable yet nothing is happening. The MJO isnt going to stay favorable and if it goes negative in mid aug the season might not start till mid sept. Logic not even once. Statement #1 implies that MJO doesn't have as much bearing as people may think. Statement #2 implies that the MJO going negative will have a large bearing on the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 On 7/19/2022 at 2:05 PM, ldub23 said: No change in the pattern as of aug 04. Protective offshore trof, low pressure in northeast. If the euros's big ridge and jb's wheel are going to appear we need to see a pattern reversal rather soon. Another hurricane in the east pac though It's July On 7/22/2022 at 12:02 PM, ldub23 said: Atlantic has possible disturbances while the east pac has hurricanes. I do think August will be rightside up, not sideways It's July 14 hours ago, ldub23 said: I wouldnt say every season. Last season when people were saying it was going to be an east coast season and a long lasting season i disagreed and it wasnt. Right now the MJO is supposedly favorable yet nothing is happening. The MJO isnt going to stay favorable and if it goes negative in mid aug the season might not start till mid sept. If the MJO is favorable it sure isnt producing any clouds. If anyone still thinks its going to be an active season please chime in. It's July 9 hours ago, ldub23 said: Heat returning to Europe? This might be the reason after the season people use for busted high cane numbers. Everything is interconnected and its possible the same pattern baking Europe is putting a tight snug lid on the tropics. It makes sense that with a super ridge locked in over Europe it would also have the effect of pumping super duper bone dry dusty air into the tropics. It is rather amazing with a supposed favorable MJO its almost impossible for a tropical cloud to form. It's July 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 9 hours ago, ldub23 said: Heat returning to Europe? This might be the reason after the season people use for busted high cane numbers. Everything is interconnected and its possible the same pattern baking Europe is putting a tight snug lid on the tropics. It makes sense that with a super ridge locked in over Europe it would also have the effect of pumping super duper bone dry dusty air into the tropics. It is rather amazing with a supposed favorable MJO its almost impossible for a tropical cloud to form. Also, this is demonstrably incorrect. Thanks for playing, though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean. One positive thing today is the predicted pattern in 16 days. If we can just get this to lock in till November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast. I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year? I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast. I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year? I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?The Sub-Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is commonly active during peak Summer months due to positioning of the Azores semi-permanent subtropical ridge placement. Azores ridging tends to be strongest May through August and until it retrogrades west with an increase in western Atlantic (WAR) 600dm heights, which generally takes hold by September. It's generally back and forth in August leading into ASO ridge placement. Therefore, it's quite common to see lifted Saharan dust get pulled across the Atlantic basin and MDR when Azores ridging and Saharan ridge are strong and conjoined. We do still see plumes advance as late as September, but waning during peak CV/MDR portion of the Atlantic tropical/hurricane season. So nothing out of the ordinary about SAL so far this year. And yes, SAL can definitely have a negative effect on tropical activity in the MDR when present and particularly strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 hour ago, floridapirate said: There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast. I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year? I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true? 1. Totally normal. Strong waves of dust (called SAL) are most common from late June through mid August. Just like tropical waves coming off Africa, waves of SAL coming off are normal. They originate from strong enough wind storms over the Sahara that result in dust thousands of feet up into the air (sandstorms) that then travel westward into the Atlantic with the same prevailing easterly steering flow that brings tropical waves westward from Africa. SAL waves come off on average every 3-5 days. 2. Yes, each SAL wave is associated with a lowered chance for a tropical cyclone to form due to a combo of much drier air vs tropical air and also increased vertical wind shear. But as we get well into August, the protection from SAL waves typically reduces and thus is a strong factor in increased tropical activity by late August and even more so in September. 3. SAL often causes extra colorful sunsets over Florida in summer. https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/state/2022/05/23/saharan-dust-florida-2022-georgia-map-tropical-cyclone/9892279002/ Edit: I see that windspeed posted while I was still typing. So, you get two replies on this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: One positive thing today is the predicted pattern in 16 days. If we can just get this to lock in till November. I'm not piling on, but at 2 weeks out, I'd use ensemble 500 mb ensemble means and realize it is still, at best, a guide, not the answer. 384 hour run of GFS MSLP doesn't mean that much 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 This is 2020, but we had SAL air quality alerts this summer as well in Houston. Makes the sky a bit milky. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/26/sahara-dust-air-quality/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I'm not piling on, but at 2 weeks out, I'd use ensemble 500 mb ensemble means and realize it is still, at best, a guide, not the answer. 384 hour run of GFS MSLP doesn't mean that much I dont mind the piling on. If im right like last year i will be crowing. If im wrong and CSU's numbers verify then i will eat the crow. I use this 16 day map because my idea of a hurricane season is a hurricane able to get into the picture and be a threat to the US. Anything else i ignore( like east coast snow lovers ignore blizzards in Alberta) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 8 hours ago, floridapirate said: There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast. I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year? I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true? Totally normal. June + July combined don't even account for 10% of climatological hurricane activity. Here's a gif of monthly 500mb heights, long term mean, 1991-2020 climo. Observe the yearly maxima in ridging in July. This is why right now is the peak of Saharan dust season (and also season cancel season). It's also why August onwards constitute about 93% of climatological hurricane activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Euro says the Sahara desert has come to the Atlantic. Is this the look of a hyperactive season? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Just now, ldub23 said: Euro says the Sahara desert has come to the Atlantic. Is this the look of a hyperactive season? Yeah surely 1080h will verify! 100% confidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, StruThiO said: Yeah surely 1080h will verify! 100% confidence Well, by all means show us some hyperactive maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? July? The desert goes all the way till the heart of the season. Now it looks like the season wont begin till after sept 08. Is it safe to say that August isnt going to be sideways, unless you are looking at a calendar upside down and August in the Atlantic resembles February. What that map tells me is we will see a few weak nothings try to spin up just off the african coast then die of thirst as they hit the Sahara or waves will come off too far north to mean anything to anyone. Please i hope for an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the last 2 seasons. We can still hang our hatts on the possibilty of a 1 storm season and something managing to find a window of moisture in a sea of sand. I think CSU comes out with an update on Aug 04. Much lower numbers coming. I still think the European heatwave will be seen by forecasters like CSU for the reason the season died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Well, by all means show us some hyperactive maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? It's July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Please i hope for an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the last 2 seasons. Well, this does seems likely; after 3 years of La Nina it is likely to have exhausted itself and the El Nino response will probably initiate in Winter thru Spring 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Well, by all means show us some hyperactive maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? July? The desert goes all the way till the heart of the season. Now it looks like the season wont begin till after sept 08. Is it safe to say that August isnt going to be sideways, unless you are looking at a calendar upside down and August in the Atlantic resembles February. What that map tells me is we will see a few weak nothings try to spin up just off the african coast then die of thirst as they hit the Sahara or waves will come off too far north to mean anything to anyone. Please i hope for an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the last 2 seasons. We can still hang our hatts on the possibilty of a 1 storm season and something managing to find a window of moisture in a sea of sand. I think CSU comes out with an update on Aug 04. Much lower numbers coming. I still think the European heatwave will be seen by forecasters like CSU for the reason the season died. Lol I mean we have a similar progression so far in MJO this year (maybe a week or two earlier) to last and you see what happened last year we pushed into 1/2 things took off mid august. Will it happen exactly like this maybe not but cant discredit the fact the pattern seems to be going this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Lol I mean we have a similar progression so far in MJO this year (maybe a week or two earlier) to last and you see what happened last year we pushed into 1/2 things took off mid august. Will it happen exactly like this maybe not but cant discredit the fact the pattern seems to be going this way. To add the only thing different from this year to last is we had a weakening La Nina where this year it has maintained itself much longer. Im not exactly sure how that will play out for this year but if we look at the last 3 peat La Nina episodes (final year of it) 1975 and 2000 they both had low ACE ratings but activity didn't pick up until about mid August. Give it like 3 weeks before we start ringing those potential low activity bells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: To add the only thing different from this year to last is we had a weakening La Nina where this year it has maintained itself much longer. Im not exactly sure how that will play out for this year but if we look at the last 3 peat La Nina episodes (final year of it) 1975 and 2000 they both had low ACE ratings but activity didn't pick up until about mid August. Give it like 3 weeks before we start ringing those potential low activity bells. My point would be 1975 and 2000 werent what was advertised by most if not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another 1975 or 2000 then i will feel vindicated im my ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, ldub23 said: My point would be 1975 and 2000 werent what was advertised by most if not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another 1975 or 2000 then i will feel vindicated im my ideas. I wasn't following hurricanes back then but just taking a look at the wikipedia page, the 2000 season lived up to or outdid the forecasts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_outlooks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: My point would be 1975 and 2000 werent what was advertised by most if not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another 1975 or 2000 then i will feel vindicated im my ideas. So what? Then the broken clock would receive mucho kudos. We would then be in awe of your absolutely amazing psychic abilities for 2022. There's a first time for everything and I'd expect you to keep reminding us of your incredible prediction in future seasons when you do your traditional downplaying. "Remember what I said about 2022 blah blah...." I guess you're going to milk this for as long as it stays quiet even though quiet now is not at all out of the ordinary. You are very good at what you do but it is just shtick to try to get to especially the newbies. This is so retro for the very longterm folks here. I feel like we're going back in time lol. But as @cptcatzsaid, 2000 was actually more active than expected. And 2022 isn't forecasted to be hyperactive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Could this end up being the deadest of dead seasons? Another person joins the bandwagon. Beginning of the season now pushed back to sometime in Sept. Has the cane season began and ended in the same month? I would advise CSU to cut numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats only assuming the season actually keeps going in OCT which seems unlikely. Why were the forecasters so horribly wrong about this season? Please chime in on why they did such a horrible job. If this is what we get in a La Nina please for all thats holy give us a super el nino next season. It cant possibly be any deader than this season was. I think the best idea is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just look at the pattern after the start of the season. I was wondering back in early june where all the hype was coming from when it seemed rather obvious the overall pattern was NOT going to produce a season of note. This season was quite dead. Lets hope next season has a bit of moisture in the tropics. Aug is clearly not going to be sideways. CSU should at least cut their forecast in half. Now we wait to see when JB says he was wrong as well. This might be the most active the Atlantic looks till SEPT 15. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 lol, someone hurry up and notify Dr. Klotzbach that he needs rejustify and explain his numbers again for the ASO on July 26th. There is a climatological genius on AmericanWx that demands it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Could this end up being the deadest of dead seasons? Another person joins the bandwagon. Beginning of the season now pushed back to sometime in Sept. Has the cane season began and ended in the same month? I would advise CSU to cut numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats only assuming the season actually keeps going in OCT which seems unlikely. Why were the forecasters so horribly wrong about this season? Please chime in on why they did such a horrible job. If this is what we get in a La Nina please for all thats holy give us a super el nino next season. It cant possibly be any deader than this season was. I think the best idea is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just look at the pattern after the start of the season. I was wondering back in early june where all the hype was coming from when it seemed rather obvious the overall pattern was NOT going to produce a season of note. This season was quite dead. Lets hope next season has a bit of moisture in the tropics. Aug is clearly not going to be sideways. CSU should at least cut their forecast in half. Now we wait to see when JB says he was wrong as well. This might be the most active the Atlantic looks till SEPT 15. It's August? You love the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Could this end up being the deadest of dead seasons? Another person joins the bandwagon. Beginning of the season now pushed back to sometime in Sept. Has the cane season began and ended in the same month? I would advise CSU to cut numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats only assuming the season actually keeps going in OCT which seems unlikely. Why were the forecasters so horribly wrong about this season? Please chime in on why they did such a horrible job. If this is what we get in a La Nina please for all thats holy give us a super el nino next season. It cant possibly be any deader than this season was. I think the best idea is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just look at the pattern after the start of the season. I was wondering back in early june where all the hype was coming from when it seemed rather obvious the overall pattern was NOT going to produce a season of note. This season was quite dead. Lets hope next season has a bit of moisture in the tropics. It's July 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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