2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[ldub23]

On 7/15/2022 at 4:01 PM, MJO812 said:

DT

 

Maybe things will be going  sideways but  there will still be  nothing  of  note as  long as the eastern super trof  is  in full force and effect and this  map with US protective  low  pressure  over the  NW ATL shows absolutely no change  in the  pattern. No sign at all of the  EURO'S NW ATL ridge  or  JB's  newfoundland wheel. They were predicted  last season as well and  never showed  up. This wintertime  pattern also means an early  end to a late starting season unless we  have a rather  unlikely  pattern reversal. Getting  a  bit  late for  that.

 

 

This will be a  tough nut to crack for things to go sideways. On this satellite  picture you can see the  offshore protective  trof  while  we can see  yet another reinforcement  on the way. To me things still appear rightside  up.

 

[Windspeed]

Maybe things will be going  sideways but  there will still be  nothing  of  note as  long as the eastern super trof  is  in full force and effect and this  map with US protective  low  pressure  over the  NW ATL shows absolutely no change  in the  pattern. No sign at all of the  EURO'S NW ATL ridge  or  JB's  newfoundland wheel. They were predicted  last season as well and  never showed  up. This wintertime  pattern also means an early  end to a late starting season unless we  have a rather  unlikely  pattern reversal. Getting  a  bit  late for  that.
 

 
This will be a  tough nut to crack for things to go sideways. On this satellite  picture you can see the  offshore protective  trof  while  we can see  yet another reinforcement  on the way. To me things still appear rightside  up.
 

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer.

[StormchaserChuck!]

^like

Come on Alma! 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

10 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Maybe things will be going  sideways but  there will still be  nothing  of  note as  long as the eastern super trof  is  in full force and effect and this  map with US protective  low  pressure  over the  NW ATL shows absolutely no change  in the  pattern. No sign at all of the  EURO'S NW ATL ridge  or  JB's  newfoundland wheel. They were predicted  last season as well and  never showed  up. This wintertime  pattern also means an early  end to a late starting season unless we  have a rather  unlikely  pattern reversal. Getting  a  bit  late for  that.
 

 
This will be a  tough nut to crack for things to go sideways. On this satellite  picture you can see the  offshore protective  trof  while  we can see  yet another reinforcement  on the way. To me things still appear rightside  up.
 

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer.

I think the Euro beginning of July ASO forecast of the trough retrograding into the Ohio Valley, which higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes, what Ldub mentioned as Joe Bastardi's "Newfoundland Wheel" looks pretty reasonable.  Thinking the mean East Coast trough that would steer anything out to sea will persist for six weeks or more seems optimistic or pessimistic, depending on whether wants a real chance at a possible major hurricane hit on the ECUSA.  As a kid in Massapequa, I was disappointed by Belle, but as an adult thinking a major into the ECUSA is bad for everybody.  Sandy was close to worst case on track, but not intensity.  Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_New_York_hurricane

[StormchaserChuck!]

Sandy costed me $225 a t a hotel in Baltimore. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

36 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Sandy costed me $225 a t a hotel in Baltimore. 

My wife and I are going to San Antonio this week on the Riverwalk, $400 for 2 days.  $225 after a hurricane seems reasonable.  She is back to work August 1, I am back August 9th.  Two weeks no school for Ike, a week no school for the 'Tax Day Floods', 2 weeks no school for Harvey, and a week no school for the 2021 3 days in a row below freezing/burst pipes/rolling blackouts.  TEA (Texas Education Authority) said we didn't have to work late into June for Harvey or the Freeze, we did have to make up a week for Harvey.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, they go crazy in Dallas, 2nd fastest growing population city

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

59 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, they go crazy in Dallas, 2nd fastest growing population city

We had a freeze in Houston this year, my bananas died, but I have seen banana bunches in my neighborhood.  It takes bananas more than a year to make fruit.  Some bananas lived.

 

  My bananas didn't actually die, the roots survived the 2021 3 days below freezing.  They spread via roots as well, they spread like crazy.  Bit like bamboo in Austin.  Austin says no more bamboo, because they spread like crazy.  But they are now everywhere.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Well, maybe they will turn 40 soon. 

[cptcatz]

For those responding to ldub, just remember he posted these posts in July/August 2020:

 

[StruThiO]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

12 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Maybe things will be going  sideways but  there will still be  nothing  of  note as  long as the eastern super trof  is  in full force and effect and this  map with US protective  low  pressure  over the  NW ATL shows absolutely no change  in the  pattern. No sign at all of the  EURO'S NW ATL ridge  or  JB's  newfoundland wheel. They were predicted  last season as well and  never showed  up. This wintertime  pattern also means an early  end to a late starting season unless we  have a rather  unlikely  pattern reversal. Getting  a  bit  late for  that.
 

 
This will be a  tough nut to crack for things to go sideways. On this satellite  picture you can see the  offshore protective  trof  while  we can see  yet another reinforcement  on the way. To me things still appear rightside  up.
 

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer.

Minor correction but 2004 was an El Nino year. The import is still very true, as usual weenies gonna weenie

[StormchaserChuck!]

With a La Nina, it will be hard to go under 15 NS'

[Windspeed]

Minor correction but 2004 was an El Nino year. The import is still very true, as usual weenies gonna weenie

Thanks for the correction. Yes, the ENSO index hit +.7 in August '04, so technically a weak Nino. No idea why I thought that was a Nina year. We had some powerful MDR long-trackers that season though with the strong +AMO. Essentially an ENSO index around neutral to slightly positive or weak has been in place during some very hyperactive years, so there does not have to be a strong -ENSO/La Nina in place for the Atlantic to produce them, though certainly having a decent +AMO is ideal.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

For those responding to ldub, just remember he posted these posts in July/August 2020:

 

1. She/he has been bearish for the US east coast since almost as far back as the inception of the web lol.

2. With three NS as of July 17th, 2022 has been a hair more active vs the average # of NS as of July 17th in non-El Nino seasons back to 1995, which is 2.7.

3. The # of NS through July 17th for non-Nino seasons back to 1995 has had virtually no predictive power for the remainder of the season. That number of post July 17th storms has averaged 14.1 NS for non-Nino seasons back to 1995, whether active or not through July 17th.

3. After very recently analyzing some data for 3rd year La Niña seasons and comparing them to the prior season (2nd year La Niña), I've decided to lean against a hyperactive 2022. An active season that's more active than the non-Nino season average since 1995? Quite possibly. But hyperactive? I don't think so at this point. More active than 2021's active 146 ACE? While a reasonable possibility as hyperactive is quite a bit above that, I'm currently leaning to ACE not reaching 146.

Edit: 4. Based on the same data, I feel that the Gulf coast of FL is at an above normal risk the season.

[lee59]

I think this time of year becomes a little more quiet due to dry air coming off the African coast and the frontal systems that can form tropical systems retreat to the north. The real hurricane season as far as I am concerned, starts in August, and that is not far away.

[Great Snow 1717]

On 7/15/2022 at 4:01 PM, MJO812 said:

DT

 

He always makes very professional forecasts...

[rclab]

36 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

He always makes very professional forecasts...

Good morning GS1717. Either that or he has the most interesting internal plumbing available. Stay well, as always….

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning GS1717. Either that or he has the most interesting internal plumbing available. Stay well, as always….

rclab always great "hearing" from you!...you also stay well!

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 7/17/2022 at 8:23 PM, GaWx said:

1. She/he has been bearish for the US east coast since almost as far back as the inception of the web lol.

2. With three NS as of July 17th, 2022 has been a hair more active vs the average # of NS as of July 17th in non-El Nino seasons back to 1995, which is 2.7.

3. The # of NS through July 17th for non-Nino seasons back to 1995 has had virtually no predictive power for the remainder of the season. That number of post July 17th storms has averaged 14.1 NS for non-Nino seasons back to 1995, whether active or not through July 17th.

3. After very recently analyzing some data for 3rd year La Niña seasons and comparing them to the prior season (2nd year La Niña), I've decided to lean against a hyperactive 2022. An active season that's more active than the non-Nino season average since 1995? Quite possibly. But hyperactive? I don't think so at this point. More active than 2021's active 146 ACE? While a reasonable possibility as hyperactive is quite a bit above that, I'm currently leaning to ACE not reaching 146.

Edit: 4. Based on the same data, I feel that the Gulf coast of FL is at an above normal risk the season.

Gulf coast of Florida indeed.  Right now the STR is keeping anything that would form from reaching the Gulf, but late September and October, when the Westerlies are usually in the Western Gulf, I wouldn't expect the abnormally warm Gulf to have cooled much.  Big storms immediate Tampa area are rare, but this seems like the type of year that could do it.  But anywhere in the Eastern GOMEX will be at risk in October.

[ldub23]

11 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

He always makes very professional forecasts...

He  changed that a  bit to say it  goes sideways  in August.

 

No change  in the  pattern as  of  aug 04. Protective  offshore trof, low  pressure  in northeast. If the  euros's big  ridge and  jb's wheel are going to appear  we  need to see a  pattern reversal rather  soon. Another  hurricane  in the east  pac  though

 

[Seminole]

18 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Gulf coast of Florida indeed.  Right now the STR is keeping anything that would form from reaching the Gulf, but late September and October, when the Westerlies are usually in the Western Gulf, I wouldn't expect the abnormally warm Gulf to have cooled much.  Big storms immediate Tampa area are rare, but this seems like the type of year that could do it.  But anywhere in the Eastern GOMEX will be at risk in October.

An issue with October is usually by then a couple of fall cold fronts typically make there way through North Florida and it does impact the SST's in the northern GOM. There are outlier years like 2018 which gave us Michael but those are rare. So far this season has been very similar to 2011, Southern Plains baking and the the S.E. East Coast stuck in a blocking pattern. 

[ldub23]

Im not  sure August is going to be sideways. CFS seems to indicate the expected  pushing  back to the start  of the season to late August  now. By then we will likely  have a rather strong eastern trof. Just  my opinion but anyone who was forecasting a  big US impact season needs to start rethinking. One  key  indicator  i use is the  JB-o-meter. When he  ignores the tropics  in his tweets thats a  negative sign. Maybe things will be  more  interesting  if  we  have an el nino next season.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Im not  sure August is going to be sideways. CFS seems to indicate the expected  pushing  back to the start  of the season to late August  now. By then we will likely  have a rather strong eastern trof. Just  my opinion but anyone who was forecasting a  big US impact season needs to start rethinking. One  key  indicator  i use is the  JB-o-meter. When he  ignores the tropics  in his tweets thats a  negative sign. Maybe things will be  more  interesting  if  we  have an el nino next season.

Op Euro has a decent looking disturbance approaching the Eastern Caribbean with some ensemble support in 10 days.  Euro/ensembles on an island for now, but that can change  Ensemble GFS MJO forecast is decent looking for action, heading into phase 1 then phase 2, empirical MJO from CPC page continues to suggest a favorable pattern beginning in August.  Oh, I doubt a trough stays locked in to one place over the East Coast the entire month of September.  Mid-August might suggests something in the Caribbean or Gulf, if one is hanging a hat on the CFS.  Too soon to give up.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Op Euro has a decent looking disturbance approaching the Eastern Caribbean with some ensemble support in 10 days.  Euro/ensembles on an island for now, but that can change  Ensemble GFS MJO forecast is decent looking for action, heading into phase 1 then phase 2, empirical MJO from CPC page continues to suggest a favorable pattern beginning in August.  Oh, I doubt a trough stays locked in to one place over the East Coast the entire month of September.  Mid-August might suggests something in the Caribbean or Gulf, if one is hanging a hat on the CFS.  Too soon to give up.

August - October are the busiest times with the tropics. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

August - October are the busiest times with the tropics. 

With September 10 the peak.  I was NOT agreeing with the LDub season cancel theme.

[ldub23]

6 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Op Euro has a decent looking disturbance approaching the Eastern Caribbean with some ensemble support in 10 days.  Euro/ensembles on an island for now, but that can change  Ensemble GFS MJO forecast is decent looking for action, heading into phase 1 then phase 2, empirical MJO from CPC page continues to suggest a favorable pattern beginning in August.  Oh, I doubt a trough stays locked in to one place over the East Coast the entire month of September.  Mid-August might suggests something in the Caribbean or Gulf, if one is hanging a hat on the CFS.  Too soon to give up.

Atlantic  has possible disturbances while the east  pac  has  hurricanes. I do think August will be rightside  up, not  sideways

[Kevin Reilly]

I am looking at the water vapor map over the past 4 hours and now the visible satellite looks like there could be a weak system in the eastern Turks and Caicos Islands.  Looks like it is right under a high-pressure system as all air is evacuating in all sectors.  Looks like a bit of southerly shear and a fair amount of dry air to its north and northwest, but it appears the dry air is lifting northeaster ward.   Guess this could be something to keep an eye on.

 

Pennsylvania Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Tracking the Euro back, the system just passing 0 degrees is what the model and its ensembles like.  Looks like it already has some vorticity, but the other models don't seem very enthusiastic.  

 

Edit to add- no models likes the wave that just came off, but it sure is a pretty wave/

[ldub23]

East  Pac still looks active. With the start  of the season pushed back till at  least  late Aug I still dont think August will be sideways. Usually a dead West Pac  is good for the ATL but not so far. If the West Pac  comes alive The start  of the season might be  pushed  back to Sept.

 

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

East  Pac still looks active. With the start  of the season pushed back till at  least  late Aug I still dont think August will be sideways. Usually a dead West Pac  is good for the ATL but not so far. If the West Pac  comes alive The start  of the season might be  pushed  back to Sept.

 

You say this every season and then the tropics heat up.