2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like it's time to watch the northern Gulf with a casual eye, as the NHC now gives a 20% 5 day chance for development along a front. The signal has been weak but consistent on the GFS/Euro, and the ensembles overnight, especially the EPS, showed a modest signal for some type of development. Would fit climo. 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the 
northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently 
located over the southeastern United States. Any development of 
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just 
offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle 
to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains 
will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from 
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For 
more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see 
products issued by your local National Weather Service Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

On 7/7/2022 at 6:10 PM, Hoosier said:

Yeah I remember.  She (or he... who really knows) gave an infamous line that I'm sure some of the old timers will recall.  It was about the "angle of the cold" being wrong for the east coast.  The early-mid 2000s had some real characters and that was pre-subforums so you tended to know more people from other regions.

 I think I remember that. Another thing is that I don't recall her or him ever being overly rude or mean. Not once over all of the years. So, a relatively nice troll imo, which makes it hard to get into trouble and thus better allows for longevity. I think that would look good on a troll's resume. 

 Regarding WxWatcher's Gulf update, the 2 PM TWO remains at a 20% chance for a TC over the next five days. With the Gulf very warm to hot and this likely to be slow moving, the big story from this one is liable to be very heavy rainfall along part of the Gulf coast as the 12Z Euro 10 day rainfall map suggests. This is likely overdone but here it is:

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I think I remember that. Another thing is that I don't recall her or him ever being overly rude or mean. Not once over all of the years. So, a relatively nice troll imo, which makes it hard to get into trouble and thus better allows for longevity. I think that would look good on a troll's resume. 

 Regarding WxWatcher's Gulf update, the 2 PM TWO remains at a 20% chance for a TC over the next five days. With the Gulf very warm to hot and this likely to be slow moving, the big story from this one is liable to be very heavy rainfall along part of the Gulf coast as the 12Z Euro 10 day rainfall map suggests. This is likely overdone but here it is:

 

Still 104*F in Houston, and the drought is getting worse.  50 miles inland, I wouldn't fear even a high end TS.  Couple of ECENs members are as far West as here, but are outliers.  I don't think the most likely area if something develops (Eastern LA to the Panhandle) are in a drought.  IAH now tying and breaking 1980 records, and if anyone remembers 1980 in Texas, that was a bad year.

[ldub23]

No change  in the  pattern so far. I  know all the experts  insist on a  very active season. I have seen maps  of  the euro showing a  high pressure ridge  over the  nw ATL  for  aug-oct. This winter type  pattern will have to reverse first.

 

 

That  is  very  protective  of the  whole  coastline for  anything of  note.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

No change  in the  pattern so far. I  know all the experts  insist on a  very active season. I have seen maps  of  the euro showing a  high pressure ridge  over the  nw ATL  for  aug-oct. This winter type  pattern will have to reverse first.

 

 

That  is  very  protective  of the  whole  coastline for  anything of  note.

Although pretty much the entire world has above normal 500 mb heights, relatively, the mean trough is up and down the Mississippi, with blocking high pressure off the NE Coast.  If the mean trough is where the Euro ASO forecast is predicted to be, the East Coast looks to be in play for MDR storms that miss the mid-Atlantic trough or form too far West.  That, and by late August, passing Northern stream troughs will mean the actual heights in any position may not match the mean heights, even if the height anomalies are perfectly forecast.  ETA on apparently global above normal heights- not sure if this is a model issue or related seem to be warmer global temps.  Places in Canada and Norway are breaking all time heat records.  105*F in Houston yesterday, a daily record.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Gradual 
development of this system is possible if it can remain offshore 
while it meanders near the northern Gulf coast through the end of 
the week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible 
along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the 
Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information 
about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by 
your local National Weather Service office and the Weather 
Prediction Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at 
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can 
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Someone on Twitter posted the ICON, a 994 mb strong TS/minimal hurricane into the Florida Big Bend.

 

The ICON is the new Canadian?

[jconsor]

Thread on two stronger than expected tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic.
 

 

[ldub23]

17 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Although pretty much the entire world has above normal 500 mb heights, relatively, the mean trough is up and down the Mississippi, with blocking high pressure off the NE Coast.  If the mean trough is where the Euro ASO forecast is predicted to be, the East Coast looks to be in play for MDR storms that miss the mid-Atlantic trough or form too far West.  That, and by late August, passing Northern stream troughs will mean the actual heights in any position may not match the mean heights, even if the height anomalies are perfectly forecast.  ETA on apparently global above normal heights- not sure if this is a model issue or related seem to be warmer global temps.  Places in Canada and Norway are breaking all time heat records.  105*F in Houston yesterday, a daily record.

Looking at  everything today i think forecasters  numbers will start coming down in hurricanes and  majors. If  i remember right last  year there was also supposed to be a  big ridge with the east  coast at risk with a season lasting well into Nov. There was  no ridge, everything  of  note was wide right  of the east coast and the season ended  in Sept.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

52 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Looking at  everything today i think forecasters  numbers will start coming down in hurricanes and  majors. If  i remember right last  year there was also supposed to be a  big ridge with the east  coast at risk with a season lasting well into Nov. There was  no ridge, everything  of  note was wide right  of the east coast and the season ended  in Sept.

Cheer up.  Retired met Larry Cosgrove thinks the numbers won't quite match the CSU forecast, he thinks August MDR season starts a bit late.  But he seems to agree the late August/September 500 mb pattern is somewhat favorable for ECUSA landfalls.  Euro ASO 500 mb pattern (see prior post) supports that.

 

Empirical MJO forecast (which worked well all season until it didn't last October) shows a favorable pattern approaching the basin the end of July.  Bit early for season cancel.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

10/30 not very organized lemon has a scheduled 1800Z invest tomorrow, I assume due to locality to the coast, I wouldn't be surprised if it it cancelled.  Looking at CIMMS, the blob S of Louisiana has the more favorable shear and convergence/divergence, but vorticity is E of the blog, with S and SW winds W of bigger blob apparent in low clouds, it isn't organizing quickly, at least not yet.

[hawkeye_wx]

The possible northern gulf low has largely disappeared from the latest global models.

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The possible northern gulf low has largely disappeared from the latest global models.

Yeah. Way too disorganized. Euro was most bullish and support basically evaporated overnight. It has a lot of work to do to have a meaningful shot at development.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Warm GOM 7-10 never had less than 16 named storms since 2003. 14 since 1995. (cold GOM had 12 NS' -in a La Nina in 1999)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Cheer up.  Retired met Larry Cosgrove thinks the numbers won't quite match the CSU forecast, he thinks August MDR season starts a bit late.  But he seems to agree the late August/September 500 mb pattern is somewhat favorable for ECUSA landfalls.  Euro ASO 500 mb pattern (see prior post) supports that.

 

Empirical MJO forecast (which worked well all season until it didn't last October) shows a favorable pattern approaching the basin the end of July.  Bit early for season cancel.

Just like canceling winter in December. Look how that worked out in 14/15 in the north east. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just like canceling winter in December. Look how that worked out in 14/15 in the north east. 

Just trying to cheer someone up who has given up on the season.  The 3 NS in mid-July is actually more active than normal.  And forecast pattern looks favorable for a Mid-Atlantic (where Ldub lives) landfall in September.  He can have them, I'm cheering for the now 5 day 20% lemon and the W outliers, we need the rain.  2008 Ike was great fun, but I'm older, fatter, and use a CPAP (something old fat people need) and a week w/o AC and CPAP, I don't really need it. 

[ldub23]

On 7/12/2022 at 11:45 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Cheer up.  Retired met Larry Cosgrove thinks the numbers won't quite match the CSU forecast, he thinks August MDR season starts a bit late.  But he seems to agree the late August/September 500 mb pattern is somewhat favorable for ECUSA landfalls.  Euro ASO 500 mb pattern (see prior post) supports that.

 

Empirical MJO forecast (which worked well all season until it didn't last October) shows a favorable pattern approaching the basin the end of July.  Bit early for season cancel.

You might  be right  but  now some  are pushing the season back to late Aug. And again, last season while  i said the  pattern was not  an east  coast  pattern we still had  people  saying  there was  going to be a nw atl ridge which never  happened.

 

As far as  the  "activity" so far its the  kind  of stuff you typically  see  in weak seasons. Im hoping you are right. The reason the  central gom coast thing  isnt  happening  is  because  of the  overall pattern. Low pressure  north  of  it  meant  it  couldnt sit and consolidate. That  has to reverse  if  predictions  of an active season still have a  chance.

 

Mr Cosgrove  is right that CSU is too high. Just about everyone will have to start  cutting  numbers. I got this from Larry for  July 26 and  it shows a reinforcement  of the  huge eastern trof. No sign of a reversal, until winter  anyway, lol. Nothing  of  interest will develop with that winterlike  pattern.

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

 And again, last season while  i said the  pattern was not  an east  coast  pattern we still had  people  saying  there was  going to be a nw atl ridge which never  happened.

 Last season had two Mid-Atlantic/NE US TS landfalls, the first season since way back in 1985 (Gloria and Henri). Before that, you had to go back to 1971 (Doria and Heidi). Others before that in that area with 2 TS+ landfalls in one season: 1961 (Esther and unnamed), 1960 (Brenda and Donna), and 1954 (Carol and Edna).

 So, 37 years since the last one and only an average of one every 14 years for two landfalls since 1950. Since 1950, only a little over 1/3 of seasons had at least one TS+ landfall. 

 Thus, I still think you're downplaying 2021 a bit too much. You already called it weak and tame in other posts. You're making it sound like it was so quiet.

[Windspeed]

"Pushing the season back to late August.."

You cannot push back the unexpected. Nearly every hyperactive season on record has the same thing in common. Most see nothing out of the MDR prior to mid August. 2005 is always going to be the rarest anomaly in that we had multiple early major hurricanes traverse the Caribbean. Of note, Bonnie's track a few weeks ago was merely a few ticks shy of giving us a late June Caribbean-runner major hurricane. Whether it did or didn't, the impact is minimal versus the overall climatological record however. There is little correlation between early Atlantic activity vs the MDR/CV season. That being said, dead Atlantic tropical seasons usually show their hand around this time based on pattern indicators. That is not the case at present as current signals suggest robust instability across the MDR from mid-August to early October. Now whether the ECONUS pattern favors landfalls or recurves remains to be seen. But it looks to be a busy season for tracking MDR canes. Of recent trends, the SST anomalies are leaning into the MDR/CV wheelhouse.

[Windspeed]

RE: Seasonal precip and SST ensemble anomalies for the height of the season, August-October. This pattern suggests very active MDR-Caribbean AEW tracks with greater instability/lift in the tropical versus subtropical latitudes that would be prone to sinking air/ridging. This may be indicative of CV long trackers at a lower latitude. It may also be suggestive of more southerly TCGs and a higher threat to Caribbean and Central American landmasses than the ECONUS. But short-term pattern changes for tracking are not easy to forecast in the long range, (i.e. a specific digging trough vs amped ridge here and there). All in consideration, this isn't the look you want if you're targeting a dead MDR/CV stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season. Again, per the earlier discussion, whether we have Mid-Atlantic/New England threats doesn't bank on whether we have a hyperactive season. The Carribean through Central-American landmasses may be under the gun this year. And obviously anything that slips into the WCARIB/Bahamas increases potential for the SECONUS dependant on timing of WAR heights.

[Windspeed]

If I am making a call at this point, I think the CSU forecast analysis for this season is still in-line with predeterministic long-range modeling. I do not foresee a slow increase into the meat of September, but instead a "flip of the switch" by late August that unleashes a hyperactive stretch that's busy busy busy well into October. Hopefully there will be some lingering troughyness in the ECONUS that can recurve potential TC threats, but if these TCs are traversing the Caribbean, anything is on the table including GOM/Florida systems. Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[ldub23]

I agree with JB here IF we do have a  Newfoundland wheel. The wheel is  very important  for  cane season and winter. IF there really  is a  wheel then the  US coast will be at risk and a  big east  coast season usually  means a  cold  stormy winter.

 

 

[StruThiO]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I agree with JB here IF we do have a  Newfoundland wheel. The wheel is  very important  for  cane season and winter. IF there really  is a  wheel then the  US coast will be at risk and a  big east  coast season usually  means a  cold  stormy winter.

 

 

how can i get your weenie tag

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 7/13/2022 at 4:56 PM, ldub23 said:

I got this from Larry for  July 26 and  it shows a reinforcement  of the  huge eastern trof. No sign of a reversal, until winter  anyway, lol. Nothing  of  interest will develop with that winterlike  pattern.

 

I'm glad the board is into this one.. Definitely a pattern that should last through the Winter. 

[ldub23]

Good thing  we are  in a  La  Nina or the east  pac  would  be  hyperactive. Think we will see something  like this  in the Atlantic this season?

 

[WxWatcher007]

Agree with @Windspeed, as usual. The switch will flip in August IMO. 

[StruThiO]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Good thing  we are  in a  La  Nina or the east  pac  would  be  hyperactive. Think we will see something  like this  in the Atlantic this season?

 

We will see hurricanes but probably not that 2017-esque. Also I wouldn't trust GFS as far as I can throw it

[MJO812]

DT

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Be interesting to see who/which is right, retired met Larry Cosgrove, later than normal start to MDR season because of global pattern/sinking air/SAL, and empirical MJO forecast, which was very useful last year in predicting active periods, for all the active periods, except the active October period forecast a couple of weeks out that disappeared as go time approached.  But Empirical MJO says end of July/beginning of August. 

 

I don't know what everything in this Twitter thread means, but sounds like Euro sees a favorable state coming as well.

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't know that the season will be below average, 15 is the lowest I can think would happen. If we do 12,14, the Winter may be cooler in the Hemisphere. I guess we have signs of that with a trough holding in the east..